1. 5/18/2015 Prediction of the 10 July 2004 Beijing Flood with a High- Resolution NWP model Ying-Hwa Kuo 1 and Yingchun Wang 2 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA 2. Beijing Meteorological Bureau, China

2. 5/18/2015

3. Model Configuration Two domain, run in two-nested mode Domain 1: 12 km; domain 2: 4 km Physics used in domain 1: oKF CU, YSU PBL, 5-layer soil model (not LSM), RRTM lw, Dudhia sw Physics used in domain 2: oSame as in domain 1, except no KF oTwo different micropysics options: Lin et al. (1983) and WSM-6

4. 5/18/2015 12km 4km Model Domain and Terrain

5. 5/18/2015 Data Used NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) final analysis at 1 degree resolution Radiosonde, surface and AWS observations obtained from Beijing Meteorological Bureau (BMB) Ground-based GPS PW from Fang Shan obtained from BMB

6. 5/18/2015 Experiments Control: or experiment A oGFS data only, used for both IC and BC 3DVAR 1: or experiment B oGFS + radiosonde, sfc + AWS 3DVAR 2: or experiment C oGFS + radiosonde, sfc + AWS + GPS PW All experiments start at 1200 UTC 7/9/04 and run for 36 hours

7. 5/18/2015 6-h accumulated rainfall 06-12 UTC 10 July 2004 GFS OBS

8. 5/18/2015 6-h accumulated rainfall 06-12 UTC 10 July 2004 BMB BMB+PW Lin et al Microphysics

9. 5/18/2015 Lin et al.BMB+PW WSM-6 6-h accumulated rainfall 06-12 UTC 10 July 2004

10. 5/18/2015 BMB+PW 4-km WRF Radar ref. Wind at 1km Lin et al. microphysics

11. 5/18/2015 BMB+PW 4-km WRF Radar ref. Wind at 1km WSM-6 microphysics

12. 5/18/2015 Differences of WSM-6 from Lin et al. microphysics Differences in the assumption of particle size and number distributions for ice particles. Melting is done on small fall-term timesteps to make it more accurate as a function of height. Saturation processes are difference. oLine et al. use some combined ice/water saturation vapor pressure based on temperature oWSM-6: Ice particles respond to ice saturation and water particles respond to water saturation. Accretion of particles takes into account of the fall speeds of both species, not just the faster falling species.

13. 5/18/2015 The GPS network in FangShan Beijing area of China 54511(Brown Square): The Radiosonde Station RAIN_GAUGE(Green Diamond): The FangShan AWS Black triangle: Four Single Frequency GPS Stations of BMB Black circle: Four Dual Frequency GPS Stations of BMB. 8 GPS Stations with mean distance less than 10km. A Vaisala AWS(P,T,RH) built on each GPS station. YSDD->54511 ~ 30 km. YCSS->RAIN_GAUGE ~ 5km

14. 5/18/2015 0709 0710 0711 30km

15. 5/18/2015 0709 0710 0711

16. 5/18/2015 GFS 12 UTC 9 July

17. 5/18/2015 BMB 12 UTC 9 July

18. 5/18/2015 BMB+PW 12 UTC 9 July

19. 5/18/2015 Difference in PW due to Assimilation Of GPS PW 12 UTC 9 July

20. 5/18/2015 Preliminary Conclusions WRF 4-km model initialized with the NCEP GFS analysis did not produce any precipitation over Beijing. GFS is quite good on the larger scale, it is the mesoscale details that it fails to capture. WRF 3D-Var assimilation of local data set makes a big difference in the stability of the local convective environment. Simulation of convective evolution is sensitive to quality of mesoscale analysis and precipitation microphysics CAPECIN GFS24-362 BMB436-232 BMB + GPS756-183