Pro Forma Analysis Agribusiness Finance LESE 306 Fall 2009
PASTFUTURE PRESENT Historical analysis Comparative analysis Historical price and yield trends Pro forma analysis Forming expectations about future prices, costs and productivity Ad hoc extrapolations Projections based upon available outlook data Projections based upon econometric analysis
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Timeline Required for Capital Budgeting… Assume it is the year 2009 and John Deere wants to project farm machinery and equipment sales over the next six years to determine if plant expansion is necessary.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Timeline Required for Capital Budgeting… Assume it is the year 2009 and John Deere wants to project farm machinery and equipment sales over the next six years to determine if plant expansion is necessary. Capital budgeting models of investment decisions require projections of the annual revenue and cost values over the entire 2010 to 2015 time period. Page 89 in booklet
Page 74 in booklet Remember the definition of annual net cash flows
Page 85 in booklet Must project Annual price Must project Annual price Must project Annual yield Must project Annual yield
Ad Hoc Modeling Approaches Naïve model – using last year’s prices, costs and yields Simple linear trend extrapolation of historical prices, costs and yields Moving Olympic average Using assumptions made by others
Naïve model: P t = P t-1 Linear trend: P t = a 0 + a 1 (Year) Olympic average: P t = Last 5 year annual price, dropping high and low and calculate the average of the remaining three year’s price. Ad Hoc Modeling Approaches
Econometric Model Approach Capturing future supply/demand impacts on prices and unit costs Linkages to commodity policy Linkages to domestic economy Linkages to the global economy
Concept of Derived Demand for Farm Machinery The demand for farm machinery is driven by the expected net economic benefit from use of the machine….
Crop Market Equilibrium D S D S Quantity Price PePe QeQe D S Demand consists of: -Industrial use -Feed use -Exports -Ending stocks Demand consists of: -Industrial use -Feed use -Exports -Ending stocks Supply consists of: -Beginning stocks -Production -Imports Supply consists of: -Beginning stocks -Production -Imports Page 45 in booklet
Forecasting Future Commodity Price Trends D S $4 10 $1 $7 D = a – bP + cYD + eX Own price Own price Disposable income Disposable income Other factors Other factors Page 45 in booklet
D S $4 10 $1 $7 S = n + mP – rC + sZ Own price Own price Input costs Input costs Forecasting Future Commodity Price Trends Other factors Other factors Page 46 in booklet
Projecting Commodity Price D = S D S $4 10 $1 $7 D = 10 – 6P +.3YD + 1.2X S = 2 + 4P –.2C + 1.02Z Substitute the demand and supply equations into the the equilibrium condition and solve for price Substitute the demand and supply equations into the the equilibrium condition and solve for price Page 46 in booklet
The Market Model Demand equations: Q d,i = a 0 - a 1 (Price) + a i (demand shifters) Supply equation: Q s,i = b 0 +b 1 (price) + b i (supply shifters) Market equilibrium: ΣQ d,i = ΣQ s,i
Income elasticity Cross price elasticity Econometric Analysis – Food Use Own price elasticity
Observed and Predicted Values For Wheat Food Use
Remaining Steps to Forecasting the Price of Commodity Develop similar econometric equations for the other uses of wheat (feed use, exports and ending stock). Develop econometric equations for production and import supply. (Q D =Q S ) solve for the price whereexcess demand equals zero Substitute the estimated equations into the market equilibrium definition (Q D =Q S ) and solve for the price where excess demand equals zero.
Triangular Probability Distribution $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 Page 131 in booklet
Conclusions Econometric models preferred over naïve models and linear time trend models. Much more accurate. elasticities Provide much more information (e.g., elasticities). sensitivity analysis potential variability Allow for sensitivity analysis with independent (exogenous) variables when evaluating potential variability about expected trends.
Adjusting Discount Rate We said to date that the discount rate is the firm’s opportunity rate of return. Realistically we must allow for business risk by including a risk premium. Realistically we must also allow for financial risk by adding an additional risk premium.
Business Risk price Risk associated with price of the product or products you are producing. unit costs Risk associated with the unit costs for the inputs used in producing the product(s). yields Risk associated with yields (productivity) in production. NCF i =P i yields i unit sales – C i unit inputs
Accounting for Business Risk R FREE,i = risk free rate of return (i.e., govt. bond rate) RRR L,i = required rate of return for lowly risk averse RRR H,i = required rate of return for highly risk averse R FREE,i RRR L,i RRR H,i.05 Page 132 in booklet
Increasing Risk Over Time Expected price Expected price E(P) Year 1 Year 10 Pessimistic price Pessimistic price Optimistic price Optimistic price Product price distribution Product price distribution $2.95 $3.05 $3.15 Probability
Increasing Risk Over Time Expected price Expected price E(P) Year 1 Year 10 Pessimistic price Pessimistic price Optimistic price Optimistic price Product price distribution Product price distribution $2.05 $2.95 $3.05 $3.15 $4.05 Probability
Financial Risk Risk associated with low used borrowing capacity (remember we captures this in the implicit cost of capital). Risk associated with increasing explicit cost of debt capital relative to ROA. We discussed this when analyzing the economic growth model: ROE = [(r – i)L + r](1 – tx)(1 – w)
Accounting for Financial Risk R FREE,i RRR i.05 Page 138 in booklet
Required Rate of Return For the purposes of this course, we will measure the annual required rates of return based upon a subjective methods. Ask yourself what additional return you require above a risk-free rate given your perceived annual business risk. Ask yourself what additional return you require given existing leverage position. RRR i = R free,i + R business,i + R financial,i
One Strategy to Minimizing Risk Exposure Page 140 in booklet
Forecast horizon NCF i NCF with existing assets NCF with new assets The Portfolio Effect
Forecast horizon NCF i Average annual NCF after making new investment. The Portfolio Effect This allows use to lower the business risk premium associated with the calculated the NPV for the new investment project. Exchanging stable profits for lowering exposure to risk.
Borrowing Preparation 1.Up to date financial statements. 2.Demonstrate trends in key financial ratios including debt repayment coverage. 3.Pro forma master budget before and after proposed investment, including the line of credit or LOC. 4.Do sensitivity analysis. 5.Demonstrate feasibility of investment plans by using NPV capital budgeting using stress testing and incorporation of risk.
Both Sides of the Desk The borrower: Enterprise analysis Cash management Line of credit needs Operating loan application Investment planning Term loan application Planning for long run Coverage thus far this semester
Both Sides of the Desk The borrower: Enterprise analysis Cash management Line of credit needs Operating loan application Investment planning Term loan application Planning for long run The lender: Loan application analysis Credit scoring Loan pricing for risk Loan approval process Loan portfolio analysis Loan loss reserves Regulatory oversight Lending institutions serving commercial agriculture and rural businesses. After mid-term exam