1. Going, Going...Gone? Workforce Development Programs for the Poor Since the War on Poverty Harry J. Holzer Georgetown University June 2012

2. Outline Beginnings: Employment and Training in the War on Poverty CETA: The High-Water Mark JTPA and WIA: Devolving Programs, Shrinking Funding, Changing Labor Market Beyond WIA: Important New Developments Evaluation Evidence: What Works? Conclusion

3. Beginnings: E and T in the War on Poverty Before War on Poverty: MDTA, Response to Fears of Automation and Structural Unemployment New Focus: Poor/Minorities What was Done: 1) Job Corps; 2) Others: NYC, WIN, JOBS….$2B by end of LBJ years Based on Little Evidence or Understanding Opposition to Broader Program, but acknowledgement of diverse needs – Jobs as well as Skills

4. CETA: The High-Water Mark Training: Classroom, OJT, subsidized work – Directly Funded by federal government PSE Funding: First Countercyclical, then Structural (aimed at Disadvantaged) – Up to 2M by late 1970s Other direct job creation: TJTC Focus on Youth (YEDPA, YIEPP) and minorities Funding: $18B (current $)

5. JTPA and WIA Years JTPA: 1982; WIA: 1998; Not Reauthorized Declining Funds (to $5B) Devolution and Reorientation Growing Doubts, Changing Economy

6. Doubts and Changing Economy Doubts about Cost-Effectiveness of Training and DJC Changing Economy: Growing Returns to Education and Achievement, and awareness of gaps – Training seen as weak substitute Also: Support for Work Incentives, Worker Institutions – Little support from Left or Right

7. Devolution and Reorientation of JTPA and WIA Elimination of PSE Less Long-Term Training, More Services More Universal – Less Disadvantaged Employers – Dual Customer Focus More Decentralized Structure – Local PICs and WIBs Worker Choice (ITAs) Dislocated as well as Disadvantaged

8. Beyond WIA Shift from D of L to D of ED Pell Grants! Now $35B – Much for Independent Students doing Vocational Education - But Few Services/Guidance and Low Completion Rates Also: CTE, School to Work… Remediation: I-BEST TAACCCT and Other Grant Programs

9. Beyond WIA (Cont’d) Sectoral Training: States and NFWS – Benefits to the Disadvantaged? Incumbent Worker Training: States Hard to Employ: Disconnected Mothers,Ex- Offenders and NCPs ARRA: One-Time Increase

10. Evaluation Evidence Huge Literature! Experimental and Non-Experimental Approaches JTPA, WIA v. Other Efforts Very Different Populations, Programs Training v. Direct Job Creation

11. JTPA and WIA JTPA: National JTPA Study – Modest Effects for Adults (Women v. Men), Nothing for Youth, Fadeout WIA: Nonexperimental (Heinrich et al., Andersson et al.) – Modest Effects for Adults, Little Fadeout so far

12. Sectoral Programs PPV Study – Large Impacts, 2 Years Later Year Up – Similar for Youth Remaining Questions… Caution: CET in San Jose v. Replication

13. Other Populations and Approaches Welfare Recipients: NEWWS, etc. Youth: Job Corps (Youth Build, YSCC); ChalleNGe, Youth Opportunities for out of school; Career Academies for in-school Hard to Employ: Transitional Jobs Community Colleges: Opening Doors (I-BEST)

14. Direct Job Creation Expense, Substitution, Post-Program Impacts? Results: Net Job Creation if carefully targeted; Post-Program Impacts only if intensive (NSW, TJ) Tax Credits: TJTC, WOTC – Limited impact, little post-program (Hamersma) Youth: YIEPP

15. Conclusion Small Effects from Small Programs One Size Doesn’t Fit All! Sectoral Programs Hard to Employ: TJs, finanicial incentives and supports Youth: Paid Work Experience, Hi-quality CTE as pathway to Labor Market and/or Postsecondary Ed. Not Just Higher Ed – Integration of Higher Ed and Workforce and Closer Alignment with Labor Demand

16. We’ve Learned Much Since War on Poverty… Original Insights Much Learned from Program Evolution and Experimentation/Evaluation Deserves More Funding and Support, but with Realistic Expectations