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Equatorial Atlantic Circulation and Tropical Climate Variability

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1 Equatorial Atlantic Circulation and Tropical Climate Variability
September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Equatorial Atlantic Circulation and Tropical Climate Variability Peter Brandt GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

2 Equatorial Atlantic Circulation and Tropical Climate Variability
With contributions from: Richard Greatbatch1, Jürgen Fischer1, Sven-Helge Didwischuss1, Andreas Funk2, Alexis Tantet1,3, William Johns4 1GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Germany 2WTD 71/FWG, Forschungsbereich für Wasserschall und Geophysik, Kiel, Germany 3now at Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands 4RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami, USA

3 WHOI Seminar, Woods Hole
Outline October 27, 2011 WHOI Seminar, Woods Hole Introduction ITCZ and tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) TACE observing system Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation EUC during warm/cold events Shear variability Equatorial Deep Jets Equatorial basin modes Interaction with EUC Summary Outlook Peter Brandt - IFM-GEOMAR

4 Atlantic Marine ITCZ Complex
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Atlantic Marine ITCZ Complex January 25, 2013 Tropical Ocean Dynamics - Lecture 11 ITCZ position and rainfall intensity affect densely populated regions in West Africa MA-Position JJA-Position Sahel Guinea A map of population density in persons/km2 (colors, see inserted legend), overlaid by contours of annual mean rainfall (in mm/day) with values > 4 mm/day (~150 cm/yr) shaded in transparent gray to indicate the mean position of the ITCZ. The north (July-August) and south (March-April) limits of the ITCZ climatological annual migration are indicated by thick dashed lines. Sahel rainfall climatology Guinea rainfall climatology Peter Brandt - GEOMAR 4

5 Rainfall and SST annual cycle
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Rainfall and SST annual cycle January 25, 2013 Tropical Ocean Dynamics - Lecture 11 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR 5

6 Mechanisms of Tropical Atlantic Variability
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Mechanisms of Tropical Atlantic Variability January 25, 2013 Tropical Ocean Dynamics - Lecture 11 Mechanisms influencing Variability of Tropical Atlantic SST Chang et al., 2006 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR 6

7 Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) modes
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) modes January 25, 2013 Tropical Ocean Dynamics - Lecture 11 Zonal mode (Atlantic Nino) Meridional mode (gradient mode) ENSO influence NAO influence Strong seasonality of Tropical Atlantic Variability makes understanding and prediction of tropical Atlantic variability a challenge. Meridional mode (or gradient, dipole mode) Second predominant mode Boreal spring MERIDIONAL MODE ZONAL MODE Sutton et al. 2000 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

8 Meridional Mode (March-April)
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Meridional Mode (March-April) January 25, 2013 Tropical Ocean Dynamics - Lecture 11 During spring the meridional SST gradient dominates TAV Underlying mechanism is the Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) Feedback Mechanism (Saravanan and Chang, 2004) First EOF (33%) of the March-April rainfall from GPCP (contours in mm/day). March-April SST anomaly (colors, in °C & white contours, every 0.2°) and surface wind anomaly (vector, in m/sec) are determined by regression on the time series of the rainfall EOF. Kushnir et al. 2006 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR 8

9 Zonal Mode (June-August)
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Zonal Mode (June-August) September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Zonal Mode is associated with rainfall variability, onset and strength of African Monsoon (Caniaux et al. 2011, Brandt et al. 2011) Underlying mechanism is the Bjerknes feedback that is strong during boreal spring/summer (Keenlyside and Latif 2007) First EOF (23%) of the June-August rainfall from GPCP (contours in mm/day). June-August SST anomaly (colors, in °C & white contours, every 0.2°) and surface wind anomaly (vector, in m/sec) are determined by regression on the time series of the rainfall EOF. Kushnir et al. 2006 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR 9

10 Equatorial Atlantic Cold Tongue
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Equatorial Atlantic Cold Tongue September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Cold tongue develops during boreal summer Interannual variability of ATL3 SST index (3°S–3°N, 20°W–0°) much smaller than seasonal cycle Brandt et al. 2011 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

11 Onset of Atlantic Cold Tongue and West African Monsoon
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Onset of Atlantic Cold Tongue and West African Monsoon March 23, 2011 Workshop on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes in the Tropical Atlantic, University of Miami, Coral Gables WAM onset follows the ACT onset by some weeks. Significant correlation of ACT and WAM onsets WAM onset – northward migration of rainfall (10°W-10°E.) (Fontaine and Louvet, 2006) ACT onset – surface area (with T<25°C) threshold Correlation: 0.45, significant at the 97% confidence level Caniaux et al. 2011, Brandt et al. 2011 Peter Brandt - IFM-GEOMAR

12 Regression of SST and Wind onto
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Regression of SST and Wind onto March 23, 2011 Workshop on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes in the Tropical Atlantic, University of Miami, Coral Gables ACT Onset Cold tongue SST; Wind forcing in the western equatorial Atlantic (zonal mode) WAM Onset Significantcorrelation with cold tongue SST (zonal mode) and SST in the tropical NE Atlantic (meridional mode) Brandt et al. 2011 Peter Brandt - IFM-GEOMAR

13 SST Errors in Coupled Climate Models
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook SST Errors in Coupled Climate Models January 25, 2013 Tropical Ocean Dynamics - Lecture 11 Dark gray  model too warm Large errors in the eastern tropical Atlantic Jungclaus et al. 2006 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

14 2006-2011 Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment A focused observational and modeling effort in the tropical Atlantic to advance the predictability of climate variability in the surrounding region and to provide a basis for assessment and improvement of coupled models. TACE was envisioned as a program of enhanced observations and modeling studies spanning a period of approximately 6 years. The results of TACE were expected to contribute to the design of a sustained observing system for the tropical Atlantic. TACE focuses on the eastern equatorial Atlantic as it is badly represented in coupled and uncoupled climate models and is a source of low prediction skill on seasonal to interannual time scales.

15 TACE observational network
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook TACE observational network Observing system during the TACE period including different process studies, like e.g. the 23°W equatorial moorings

16 Equatorial Mooring Array at 23°W
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Equatorial Mooring Array at 23°W September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany single mooring from June 2005 3 moorings from June 2006 to May 2011 Ship Section Mean Brandt, et al. 2013, submitted Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

17 EUC from Shipboard Measurements
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook EUC from Shipboard Measurements September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany 20 shipboard velocity sections are used to calculate the dominant variability pattern in terms of Hilbert EOFs Sorted with respect to the seasonal cycle Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

18 Reconstruction of Zonal Velocity Sections
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Reconstruction of Zonal Velocity Sections September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Dominant variability pattern from ship sections Pattern are regressed onto moored time series Method validation by using the ship sections itself Alternative: optimal width method Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

19 Validation of EUC Transport Calculation using Ship Sections
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Validation of EUC Transport Calculation using Ship Sections September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

20 Eastward EUC Transport
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Eastward EUC Transport General agreement between different methods

21 EUC Transport Years with strong and weak annual cycle
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook EUC Transport Years with strong and weak annual cycle Ship sections alone are hardly conclusive about seasonal cycle

22 Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook
Pacific EUC Transport Mean EUC Transport (solid) and EUC transport for strong El Niños (dashed) Strongly reduced EUC transport during El Niños. EUC disappeared during 1982/83 El Niño (Firing et al. 1983) Johnson et al. 2002 What is the relation between Atlantic EUC transport and tropical Atlantic variability?

23 Interannual Variability: SST ATL3 and Wind West Atlantic
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Interannual Variability: SST ATL3 and Wind West Atlantic Richter et al. (2012): canonical events have strong/weak winds prior to cold/warm events Canonical cold event: 2005 Canonical warm event: 2008 Noncanonical cold event: 2009 (warmest spring with weak winds, but coldest SST in August)

24 Interannual Variability: SST ATL3 and EUC Transport
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Interannual Variability: SST ATL3 and EUC Transport Canonical cold/warm events are associated with strong/weak EUC EUC during 2009 was weak and shows no variation during the strong cooling from May to July

25 Interannual Variability: SST ATL3 and April/May 2009 Anomalies
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Interannual Variability: SST ATL3 and April/May 2009 Anomalies According to Richter et al.(2012) noncanonical events are driven by advection from northern hemisphere during strong meridional mode events SST and wind anomalies during April/May 2009 (Foltz et al. 2012)

26 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Regression Maps September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Strong June EUC associated with anomalous cold Cold Tongue and southerly wind anomalies in the northern hemisphere  early onset of the West African Monsoon Transport anomalies from 2005/06 to 2011/05 have been used, thus 5 to 6 years are used depending on the months; Wind : NOAA-NCDC blended sea winds (scatterometer + microwave), 0.25°, 6 hourly (only the averaged daily and monthly data have been used); SST: TMI SST (microwave), 0.25°, daily (monthly averages also used) Brandt, et al. 2013, submitted Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

27 June EUC – Wind/SST Relation
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook June EUC – Wind/SST Relation September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

28 June EUC – Wind/SST Relation
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook June EUC – Wind/SST Relation September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

29 June EUC – Wind/SST Relation
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook June EUC – Wind/SST Relation September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Regression maps reflect a canonical behavior according to Richter et al. (2012) Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

30 Monthly Regressions of Zonal Velocity onto EUC Transport
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Monthly Regressions of Zonal Velocity onto EUC Transport September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany During all months: strengthening of the eastward EUC associated with strengthening of westward surface flow (strongest shear enhancement in June) February: weak near surface flow variability, stronger changes in the south Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

31 Seasonal Cycle of Upper Ocean Diapycnal Heat Flux
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Seasonal Cycle of Upper Ocean Diapycnal Heat Flux Strongest shear (1/s2) and diapycnal heat flux (W/m2) during June Hummels et al. 2013

32 Deep Velocity Observations along 23°W
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Deep Velocity Observations along 23°W September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Equatorial Deep Jets are a dominant flow feature below the Equatorial Undercurrent and oscillate with a period of about 4.5 years (Johnson and Zhang 2003, Brandt et al. 2011) Moored data represents an update of the data published in Brandt et al. (2011) covering now a period of about 7 years. Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

33 Equatorial Deep Jets and Basin Mode Oscillations
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Equatorial Deep Jets and Basin Mode Oscillations Downward phase and upward energy propagation EDJ are excited at depth and propagate toward the surface update from Brandt et al. 2011

34 Excitation of equatorial basin modes (Cane and Moore, 1981)
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Excitation of equatorial basin modes (Cane and Moore, 1981) Equatorial Deep Jets Vertical Mode Decomposition Harmonic analysis Equatorial Deep Jets

35 WHOI Seminar, Woods Hole
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Deep Ocean Dynamics | Introduction Equatorial Deep Jets Equatorial Deep Jets October 27, 2011 WHOI Seminar, Woods Hole Greatbatch et al. (2012): EDJ can be described by high-baroclinic, equatorial basin modes. How are the Jets forced? Inertial Instability (Hua et al. 1997, d’Orgeville et al. 2004, Eden and Dengler 2008) Destabilization of Rossby-gravity waves (Ascani et al. 2006, d’Orgeville et al. 2007, Hua et al. 2008, Ménesguen et al. 2009) Upward energy propagation toward the surface hindered by the EUC (e.g. McPhaden et al. 1986) or tunneling through the shear zone (Brown & Sutherland 2007)? Inertial instability (Hua et al., 1997, 2008): On the equatorial -plane, inertial instability occurs whenever the maximum angular momentum M = u−1/2 y2 (where u is the zonal velocity, y is latitude and  is the meridional gradient of planetary vorticity at the equator) is displaced from the equator and is thus triggered whenever a zonal flow is not symmetric with respect to y = 0. Destabilization of mixed Rossby-gravity waves (Hua et al. 2008): For short enough zonal wavelength, the westward phase propagating MRG wave is strongly destabilized by barotropic shear instability leading to the formation of zonal jets. d´Orgeville et al. (2007): high-resolution model with 1/11° horizontal and, throughout the water column, 12.5/25 m vertical resolution; temporally oscillating mass flux that is confined to the western boundary is applied at its northern and southern boundaries (15°S/N) to force Yanai waves; Yanai-wave forcing produces equatorial jets, basin modes sets the time scale of jets. Ascani et al. (2010): relatively low horizontal (1/4°) and high Vertical resolution (50 m), model is forced with N/S wind stress to produce artificially 30 day Yanai waves that form a downward propagating Yanai beam, model is able to predict the occurrence of a realistic EICS, but simulates only very weak equatorial deep jets. In another simulation Ascani et al. (2006), they were able from the destabilization of the Yanai waves to produce EDJs. The model was very sensitive to different parameterizations (bottom fricting and mixing). Eden and Dengler (2008) suggest that EDJ are related to the deep western boundary current; inertial instability may be important for their generation. They show that the strength of EDJ increase with increasing vertical and horizontal resolution, but are still underestimated at very high resolution. Peter Brandt - IFM-GEOMAR

36 Surface Geostrophic Velocity
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Surface Geostrophic Velocity September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany 4.5-year cycle of the geostrophic equatorial zonal surface velocity (from sea level anomalies 15°W-35°W) Corresponding signal of the ATL3 SST index (3°S–3°N, 20°W–0°) Eastward surface flow anomaly corresponds to warm eastern equatorial Atlantic. Brandt et al. 2011 Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

37 EDJ interaction with the EUC?
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook EDJ interaction with the EUC? September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Consistent downward phase propagation below the EUC 4.5-year cycle also North, South and above the EUC core Phases suggest meridional displacement of the EUC core with the EDJ cycle Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

38 EDJ interaction with the EUC?
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook EDJ interaction with the EUC? September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Consistent downward phase propagation below the EUC 4.5-year cycle also North, South and above the EUC core Phases suggest meridional displacement of the EUC core with the EDJ cycle Center of flow calculated for velocities larger than 20 cm/s. Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

39 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Summary September 11, 2012 TAV / PIRATA-17 Meeting, Kiel, Germany Interannual EUC transport variability largely in agreement with zonal mode variability There are noncanonical events likely associated with meridional mode events during boreal spring 4.5-yr EDJ oscillations dominate depth range below the EUC: high-baroclinic, equatorial basin modes Possible interaction of basin mode and EUC (time series are hardly long enough) Improved numerical simulations are required for the understanding of physical processes responsible for EDJ affecting SST and TAV Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

40 Persistent errors in climate models with little sign of reduction
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Persistent errors in climate models with little sign of reduction Summer (JJA) Sea Surface temperature bias pattern for CMIP5 White stipples indicate where models are consistently wrong Toniazzo and Woolnough, 2013 Despite improved process understanding, model errors remained large resulting in poor TA climate prediction.

41 Climate Modelling/Prediction
Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook Climate Modelling/Prediction March 16, 2012 SPACES Meeting - ZMAW Hamburg State-of-the-art climate models still show large errors in the SE Atlantic Possible sources: atmospheric convection, clouds, aerosols, but similarly oceanic processes (Xu et al. 2013) like: Advection from equatorial region, too weak stratification Not resolved coastal upwelling processes Several initiatives to improve ocean data base in the SE Atlantic and to reduce model bias EU PREFACE (PI Noel Keenlyside) German SACUS (PI Peter Brandt) NSF Proposal (PI Ping Chang) Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

42 Introduction Data & Methods EUC Transport EUC-TAV Relation Equatorial Deep Jets Summary Outlook
Closing knowledge gaps – enhanced observations Gulf of Guinea and Eastern Boundary Upwelling regions Glider campaigns and cruises in 2014, 2015, and 2016, various seasons Enhanced ARGO floats in Eastern Atlantic 8E6S, PIRATA mooring Current meter at 0E,eq Mooring 20S Current meter mooring array was deployed at 11°S off Angola during Meteor cruise in July 2013

43 EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria
Acknowledgements April 27, 2012 EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria This study was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research as part of the co-operative projects “NORDATLANTIK” and “RACE” and by the German Science Foundation (DFG) as part of the Sonderforschungsbereich 754 “Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean”. Moored velocity observations were acquired in cooperation with the PIRATA project. Peter Brandt - GEOMAR

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