1. 1 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Estimating the total mileage at the National Level for France 1990-2005 : KILOM 2 model Zehir Kolli Ariane Dupont

2. 2 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Introduction Estimating the total mileage and its evolution by types of vehicles is a corner stone of the understanding of the mobility at the national level ; estimating road demand and its externalitiies in terms of road risk and pollution In France, we can estimate the road demand by two ways using the KILOM model and surveys as the NHS, Panels SECODIP and PARC AUTO, and also surveys on road sites.

3. 3 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Contents of the presentation 1. Presenting the Kilom model: its aims, its conceptual architecture 2. Presenting the 5 modulus computing the monthly mileage at the National level: Fleet, Kilommoy, Conso, Fuel leak, Final modulus 3. The results for 1990-2005

4. 4 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1. The KILOM model What is estimated ? –A monthly estimation of the road demand i.e. the total mileage on any find of road networks and for all kind of road engines –For the whole French territory (excluding Corsica and the overseas territory –An estimation putting in balance fuel deliveries and actual consumption of fuel Two estimations: –An estimation for 1957 to 1994 by Laurence Jaeger as road risk exposure measurement for the TAG Model –An estimation for 1990 to 2005 (being updated to 2006) with a simplified architecture

5. 5 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1. The KILOM model For 5 categories of vehicles 1/ cars for personal and professional uses 2/ pick up weighted under 5 tones 3/ trucks weighted over 5 tones (a distinction being set up between the 5t to 10t lorries and the lorries over 10t) 4/ bus and coaches 5/ motorized two-wheels

6. 6 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1. The KILOM model The conceptual architecture of the KILOM 1model :

7. 7 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1. The KILOM model KILOM 2 conceptual architecture

8. 8 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1. The KILOM model Two steps of computation –1/ to collect and compute the input series (annual and monthly) –2/ to compute the monthly estimation by 5 modulus (output series)

9. 9 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1.The KILOM model : the DATA Fleet : CCFA for annual fleet + monthly registration Kilommoy: CCTN for annual mileage, AFSA for monthly trucks mileage on higways, SECODIP for monthly mileage for light vehicles Leak: CPDP, Oil bulletin, CCTN Conso: SECODIP, Beauvais, CCTN, Ademe

10. 10 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 1. The KILOM model 1/ the FLEET modulus 2/ the KILOMMOY modulus which gives a seasonal index of mileage for each category of vehicles 3/ the leak modulus which computes the monthly correction of the fuel deliveries by the leak at the borders based on the monthly variation of prices 4/ the CONSO modulus 5/ the COMPUTATION modulus which gives a monthly mileage for each category of vehicles in France after calibration on fuel deliveries

11. 11 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2a.The KILOM 2 modulus: the Fleet

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15. 15 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2b.The KILOM 2 modulus: the Average mileage Annual DATA for the 5 categories: CCTN Monthly breakdown by computing seasonal coefficients with monthly data : SECODIP for cars and AFSA for trucks

16. 16 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Laurence’s method with y being the mileage of month t

17. 17 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Our method : moving average centered and reduced with

18. 18 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 A better understanding of the seasonal variation

19. 19 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2b.The KILOM 2 modulus: the Average mileage Monthly breakdown of cars: Due to the fact that the Secodip data are not monthly but quaterly since 1995 we have computed infra-quaterly coefficient based on available data for before 1995 and assuming a stability of seasonal behaviour over time such as COEFSAI t,m =CoefTRIM t,m *CoeffMens93-94 and then KIMMENS VP t,m =K VP t *COEFSAI t,m

20. 20 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2b.The KILOM 2 modulus: the Average mileage Monthly breakdown of trucks: Due to the fact that the data are –annual from 1990 to 1991 –Monthly from 1992 to 2002 –Quaterly from 2003 to 2005 –We have computed monthly coefficients for 1992-2002 and apply them to break down the series for the other years, according to the observed stability of the seasonal behavior of the series COEFSAI t,m =CoefTRIM t,m *CoeffMens 92-02 and then KIMMENS PL t,m =K PL t *COEFSAI t,m Assumption : same seasonality for trucks and coaches

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23. 23 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2c.The KILOM 2 modulus: the fuel leak, Laurence’s method

24. 24 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2c.The KILOM 2 modulus: the fuel leak Fuel consumption at the National level =Livraisons - (Quantités sortantes – Quantités entrantes) 2 kinds of fuel: gasoline (price is weigthed according to the fleet size between super and super 95) and diesel Variable to estimate : monthly fuel deliveries (CPDP data) Explicative variables : Prices (Oil Bulletin data), Difference between French prices and fuel prices (oil bulletin data) in contant euros,temperature (CPDP-Météo France), evolution of the fleet,

25. 25 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Fuel deliveries

26. 26 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Gasoline price stationarity

27. 27 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Diesel price stationnarity

28. 28 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2c.The KILOM 2 modulus: the fuel leaks d=diess=signe(pf-pj )*√|pf-pj| Ѵ Ѵ 12Logess= Ѵ Ѵ 12 [μIpares + ξTemp + λd+ ρLog(Pxfess)]+ [Θ/Φ]*εt With:

29. 29 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Gasoline leaks It represent in average 0,53% of all gasoline deliveries for the period 2000 to 2005. Elasticity price of deliveries 8,35% for gazoline.

30. 30 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2c.The KILOM 2 modulus: the fuel escapes Ѵ Ѵ 12Logdies= Ѵ Ѵ 12 [μIparc + ξTemp + λd+ ρLog(Pxfdies)]+ [Θ/Φ]*εt With:

31. 31 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 Diesel escapes It represents in average 0,37% of all diesel deliveries for the period 2000 to 2005. Elasticity price of deliveries 4,70%.

32. 32 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 2c.The KILOM 2 modulus: the fleet fuel consumption

33. 33 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 3. The Kilom results: 1990-2005

34. 34 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 3.The Kilom results: 1990-2005

35. 35 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 3.The Kilom results: 1990-2005

36. 36 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 3.The Kilom results: 1990-2005

37. 37 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 3. The Kilom results: 1990-2005

38. 38 NERDS – RSVP, March 17 3. The Kilom results: 1956-1995