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S-Sit and organize materials for the lesson… Get your journal and a sharpened pencil. E-Examine and follow teacher’s directions… On your next blank page, write today’s date at the top. Title this page ~ Probability T-Take the challenge! Write the CQ in journal below the title: Challenge Question: What operation do you use to solve compound probability if you see the word “and” in the word problem? What about if you see the word “or”? Warm-Up: 1. What do you remember about probability from 5 th and 6 th grade? Make a list of everything you remember in your journal now! M ARCH 12, 2015 4/2/2015

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R EVIEW OF P ROBABILITY

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P ROBABILITY Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. For example – Today there is a 60% chance of rain. The odds of winning the lottery are a million to one. What are some examples you can think of? PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY Probabilities are written as: Fractions from 0 to 1 Decimals from 0 to 1 Percents from 0% to 100% PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY If an event is certain to happen, then the probability of the event is 1 or 100%. If an event will NEVER happen, then the probability of the event is 0 or 0%. If an event is just as likely to happen as to not happen, then the probability of the event is ½, 0.5 or 50%. PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Certain 0 0.5 1 0% 50% 100% ½ PRESENTATION

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When a meteorologist states that the chance of rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying that it is equally likely to rain or not to rain. If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more likely to rain. If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain, but it probably will not rain. P ROBABILITY PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY What are some events that will never happen and have a probability of 0%? What are some events that are certain to happen and have a probability of 100%? What are some events that have equal chances of happening and have a probability of 50%? PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY The probability of an event is written: P(event) = number of ways event can occur total number of outcomes PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY P(event) = number of ways event can occur total number of outcomes An outcome is a possible result of a probability experiment When rolling a number cube, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY P(event) = number of ways event can occur total number of outcomes An event is a specific result of a probability experiment When rolling a number cube, the event of rolling an even number is 3 (you could roll a 2, 4 or 6). PRESENTATION

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P ROBABILITY P(event) = number of ways event can occur total number of outcomes What is the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin? P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1 total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2 P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50% PRESENTATION

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1. What is the probability that the spinner will stop on part A? 2.What is the probability that the spinner will stop on (a)An even number? (b)An odd number? 3. What is the probability that the spinner will stop in the area marked A? AB CD 31 2 A CB T RY T HESE : LEARNING TOGETHER

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P ROBABILITY W ORD P ROBLEM : Lawrence is the captain of his track team. The team is deciding on a color and all eight members wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the probability that he will pick blue? Number of blues = 3 Total cards = 8 yellow red blue green black 3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5% LEARNING TOGETHER

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Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to 6. What is the probability of the following? a.) an odd number odd numbers – 1, 3, 5 total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 b.) a number greater than 5 numbers greater – 6 total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 L ET ’ S W ORK T HESE T OGETHER 3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50% 1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6% LEARNING TOGETHER

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1. What is the probability of spinning a number greater than 1? 2.What is the probability that a spinner with five congruent sections numbered 1-5 will stop on an even number? 3. What is the probability of rolling a multiple of 2 with one toss of a number cube? T RY T HESE : 21 34 LEARNING TOGETHER

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R EVIEW OF T OTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

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T REE D IAGRAM – T OTAL P OSSIBLE O UTCOMES Make a tree diagram to represent the following situation: I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble from the bucket and roll the dice once, what are all the possible outcomes? Red Yellow Blue 123456123456 123456123456 123456123456 How many total possible outcomes? PRESENTATION

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Make an area model to represent the following situation: I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble from the bucket and roll the dice once, what are all the possible outcomes? A REA M ODEL – T OTAL P OSSIBLE O UTCOMES 123456 RedR1R2R3R4R5R6 YellowY1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6 BlueB1B2B3B4B5B6 PRESENTATION

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R EVIEW OF H OW TO CALCULATE P ROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS

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“A ND ” VS. “O R ” I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble from the bucket and roll the dice once: 1. What is the probability of drawing a yellow and rolling an even? 2. What is the probability of drawing a yellow or rolling an even? PRESENTATION

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With replacement ~ the object is replaced before the next object is drawn (the total stays the same for both probabilities) Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3 red and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing a blue, replacing it, and then drawing a green? Without replacement ~ the object is not replaced before the next object is drawn (the total is different for both probabilities) Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3 red and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing a blue, setting it aside, and then drawing a green? “W ITH REPLACEMENT ” VS. “W ITHOUT REPLACEMENT ” PRESENTATION

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Adam has a bag containing four yellow gumdrops and one red gumdrop. he will eat one of the gumdrops, and a few minutes later, he will eat a second gumdrop. a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment. b) What is the probability that Adam will eat a yellow gumdrop first and a green gumdrop second? c) What is the probability that Adam will eat two yellow gumdrops? d) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops with the same color? e) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops of different colors? “W ITH REPLACEMENT ” VS. “W ITHOUT REPLACEMENT ” LEARNING TOGETHER

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How long do I have? 45 mins What do I do? By yourself, complete the Unit 5 Common Assessment ASSESSMENT

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W RAP - UP W- Write homework assignment in planner (Unit 5 Common Assessment due on Tuesday, April 9th ) R- Return materials and organize supplies A-Assess how well you worked in a group or individually Did I/we maintain operating standards? Did I/we work toward learning goals? Did I/we complete tasks? P- Praise one another for high quality work: Tickets for a “P” performance overall

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