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TM 661 Engineering Economics for Managers

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1 TM 661 Engineering Economics for Managers
Investment Worth

2 Investment Worth MARR Suppose a company can earn 12% / annum in U. S. Treasury bills No way would they ever invest in a project earning < 12% Def: The Investment Worth of all projects are measured at the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) of a company.

3 MARR MARR is company specific MARR based on
utilities - MARR = % mutuals - MARR = % new venture - MARR = % MARR based on firms cost of capital Price Index Treasury bills

4 Investment Worth Alternatives
NPW(MARR) > 0 Good Investment

5 Investment Worth Alternatives
NPW(MARR) > 0 Good Investment EUAW(MARR) > 0 Good Investment

6 Investment Worth Alternatives
NPW(MARR) > 0 Good Investment EUAW(MARR) > 0 Good Investment IRR > MARR Good Investment

7 Present Worth Example: Suppose you buy and sell a piece of equipment. Purchase Price $16,000 Sell Price (5 years) $ 4,000 Annual Maintenance $ 3,000 Net Profit Contribution $ 6,000 MARR % Is it worth it to the company to buy the machine?

8 Present Worth NPW = -16 + 3(P/A,12,5) + 4(P/F,12,5) 4,000 4,000 6,000
16,000 6,000 3,000 5 4,000 3,000 5 4,000 16,000 NPW = (P/A,12,5) + 4(P/F,12,5)

9 Present Worth NPW = -16 + 3(P/A,12,5) + 4(P/F,12,5)
16,000 6,000 3,000 5 4,000 3,000 5 4,000 16,000 NPW = (P/A,12,5) + 4(P/F,12,5) = (3.6048) + 4(.5674)

10 Present Worth NPW = -16 + 3(P/A,12,5) + 4(P/F,12,5)
16,000 6,000 3,000 5 4,000 3,000 5 4,000 16,000 NPW = (P/A,12,5) + 4(P/F,12,5) = (3.6048) + 4(.5674) = = -$2,916

11 Annual Worth  Annual Worth (AW or EUAW) AW(i) = PW(i) (A/P, i%, n)
= [ At (P/F, i%, t)](A/P, i%, n) AW(i) = Annual Worth of Investment AW(i) > 0 **OK Investment**

12 Annual Worth; Example AW(12) = -16(A/P,12,5) + 3 + 4(A/F,12,5)
3,000 5 4,000 16,000 Repeating our PW example, we have AW(12) = -16(A/P,12,5) (A/F,12,5)

13 Annual Worth; Example AW(12) = -16(A/P,12,5) + 3 + 4(A/F,12,5)
3,000 5 4,000 16,000 Repeating our PW example, we have AW(12) = -16(A/P,12,5) (A/F,12,5) = -16(.2774) (.1574)

14 Annual Worth; Example AW(12) = -16(A/P,12,5) + 3 + 4(A/F,12,5)
3,000 5 4,000 16,000 Repeating our PW example, we have AW(12) = -16(A/P,12,5) (A/F,12,5) = -16(.2774) (.1574) = -.808 = -$808

15 Alternately AW(12) = PW(12) (A/P, 12%, 5) = -2.92 (.2774)
3,000 5 4,000 16,000 AW(12) = PW(12) (A/P, 12%, 5) = (.2774) = - $810 < 0 NO GOOD

16 Internal Rate of Return
IRR - internal rate of return is that return for which NPW(i*) = 0 i* = IRR i* > MARR **OK Investment**

17 Internal Rate of Return
IRR - internal rate of return is that return for which NPW(i*) = 0 i* = IRR i* > MARR **OK Investment** Alt: FW(i*) = 0 = At(1 + i*)n - t

18 Internal Rate of Return
IRR - internal rate of return is that return for which NPW(i*) = 0 i* = IRR i* > MARR **OK Investment** Alt: FW(i*) = 0 = At(1 + i*)n - t PWrevenue(i*) = PWcosts(i*)

19 Internal Rate of Return
Example PW(i) = (P/A, i, 5) + 4(P/F, i, 5) 3,000 5 4,000 16,000

20 Internal Rate of Return
Example PW(i) = (P/A, i, 5) + 4(P/F, i, 5) 3,000 5 4,000 16,000

21 Internal Rate of Return
Example PW(i) = (P/A, i, 5) + 4(P/F, i, 5) i* = 5 1/4 % i* < MARR 3,000 5 4,000 16,000

22 Public School Funding

23 Public School Funding 216% 16 yrs

24 School Funding F = P(F/P,i*,16) (F/P,i*,16) = F/P = 2.16
3 16 100 216 F = P(F/P,i*,16) (F/P,i*,16) = F/P = 2.16 (1+i*)16 = 2.16

25 School Funding (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701 1 2 3 16
100 216 (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701

26 School Funding (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701
3 16 100 216 (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701 ln(1+i*) = .0481

27 School Funding (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701
3 16 100 216 (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701 ln(1+i*) = .0481 (1+i*) = e.0481 =

28 School Funding (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701
3 16 100 216 (1+i*)16 = 2.16 16 ln(1+i*) = ln(2.16) = .7701 ln(1+i*) = .0481 (1+i*) = e.0481 = i* = = 4.93%

29 School Funding We know i = 4.93%, is that significant growth? 1 2 3 16
100 216 We know i = 4.93%, is that significant growth?

30 School Funding We know i = 4.93%, is that significant growth?
1 2 3 16 100 216 We know i = 4.93%, is that significant growth? Suppose inflation = 3.5% over that same period.

31 School Funding We know i = 4.93%, is that significant growth?
1 2 3 16 100 216 We know i = 4.93%, is that significant growth? Suppose inflation = 3.5% over that same period. d i j 1 0493 0350 . d= 1.4%

32 School Funding We know that d, the real increase in school funding
1 2 3 16 100 216 We know that d, the real increase in school funding after we discount for the effects of inflation is 1.4%. So schools have experienced a real increase in funding?

33 School Funding We know that d, the real increase in school funding
1 2 3 16 100 216 We know that d, the real increase in school funding after we discount for the effects of inflation is 1.4%. So schools have experienced a real increase in funding? Rapid City growth rate 3% / yr.

34 Summary NPW > Good Investment

35 Summary NPW > Good Investment EUAW > Good Investment

36 Summary NPW > 0 Good Investment EUAW > 0 Good Investment
IRR > MARR Good Investment

37 Summary NPW > 0 Good Investment EUAW > 0 Good Investment
IRR > MARR Good Investment Note: If NPW > EUAW > 0 IRR > MARR

38 Internal Rate of Return
IRR - internal rate of return is that return for which NPW(i*) = 0 i* = IRR i* > MARR **OK Investment** Alt: FW(i*) = 0 = At(1 + i*)n - t PWrevenue(i*) = PWcosts(i*)

39 Internal Rate of Return
Example PW(i) = (P/A, i, 5) + 4(P/F, i, 5) 3,000 5 4,000 16,000

40 Internal Rate of Return
Example PW(i) = (P/A, i, 5) + 4(P/F, i, 5) i* = 5 1/4 % i* < MARR 3,000 5 4,000 16,000

41 Spreadsheet Example

42 Spreadsheet Example

43 Spreadsheet Example

44 Spreadsheet Example

45 Spreadsheet Example

46 IRR Problems Consider the following cash flow diagram. We
1,000 4,100 5,580 2,520 n 1 2 3 Consider the following cash flow diagram. We wish to find the Internal Rate-of-Return (IRR).

47 IRR Problems Consider the following cash flow diagram. We
1,000 4,100 5,580 2,520 n 1 2 3 Consider the following cash flow diagram. We wish to find the Internal Rate-of-Return (IRR). PWR(i*) = PWC(i*) 4,100(1+i*)-1 + 2,520(1+i*)-3 = 1, ,580(1+i*)-2

48 IRR Problems NPV vs. Interest ($5) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 0% 10% 20%
30% 40% 50% 60% Interest Rate Net Present Value

49 External Rate of Return
Purpose: to get around a problem of multiple roots in IRR method Notation: At = net cash flow of investment in period t At , At > 0 0 , else -At , At < 0 0 , else rt = reinvestment rate (+) cash flows (MARR) i’ = rate return (-) cash flows Rt = Ct =

50 External Rate of Return
Method find i = ERR such that Rt (1 + rt) n - t = Ct (1 + i’) n - t Evaluation If i’ = ERR > MARR Investment is Good

51 External Rate of Return
Example MARR = 15% Rt ( ) n - t = Ct (1 + i’) n - t 4,100(1.15)2 + 2,520 = 1,000(1 + i’)3 + 5,580(1 + i’)1 i’ = .1505 1 2 3 1,000 4,100 5,580 2,520

52 External Rate of Return
Example MARR = 15% Rt ( ) n - t = Ct (1 + i’) n - t 4,100(1.15)2 + 2,520 = 1,000(1 + i’)3 + 5,580(1 + i’)1 i’ = .1505 ERR > MARR 1 2 3 1,000 4,100 5,580 2,520

53 External Rate of Return
Example MARR = 15% Rt ( ) n - t = Ct (1 + i’) n - t 4,100(1.15)2 + 2,520 = 1,000(1 + i’)3 + 5,580(1 + i’)1 i’ = .1505 ERR > MARR Good Investment 1 2 3 1,000 4,100 5,580 2,520

54 Critical Thinking IRR < MARR a. IRR < MARR < ERR
b. IRR < ERR < MARR c. ERR < IRR < MARR

55 Critical Thinking IRR > MARR a. IRR > MARR > ERR
b. IRR > ERR > MARR c. ERR > IRR > MARR

56 Savings Investment Ratio
Method 1 Let i = MARR SIR(i) = Rt (1 + i)-t Ct (1 + i)-t = PW (positive flows) - PW (negative flows)

57 Savings Investment Ratio
Method #2 SIR(i) = At (1 + i) -t Ct (1 + i) -t SIR(i) = PW (all cash flows) PW (negative flows)

58 Savings Investment Ratio
Method #2 SIR(i) = At (1 + i) -t Ct (1 + i) -t SIR(i) = PW (all cash flows) PW (negitive flows) Evaluation: Method 1: If SIR(t) > 1 Good Investment Method 2: If SIR(t) > 0 Good Investment

59 Savings Investment Ratio
16 1 2 3 4 5 7 Example SIR(t) = 3(P/A, 12%, 5) + 4(P/F, 12%, 5) 16 = 3(3.6048) + 4(.5674) = < 1.0

60 Savings Investment Ratio
16 1 2 3 4 5 7 Example SIR(t) = 3(P/A, 12%, 5) + 4(P/F, 12%, 5) 16 = 3(3.6048) + 4(.5674) = < 1.0

61 Payback Period   Method Find smallest value m such that where
Co = initial investment m = payback period investment m t = 1 R t C o

62 Payback Period R t n å Example c n o 16 1 2 3 4 5 7 m = 5 years

63 Capitalized Costs Example: $10,000 into an account @ 20% / year
A = P(A/P, i, ) P = A / i A 10,000

64 Class Problem A flood control project has a construction cost of $10 million, an annual maintenance cost of $100,000. If the MARR is 8%, determine the capitalized cost necessary to provide for construction and perpetual upkeep.

65 Class Problem Pc = 10,000 + A/i = 10,000 + 100/.08 = 11,250
10,000 A flood control project has a construction cost of $10 million, an annual maintenance cost of $100,000. If the MARR is 8%, determine the capitalized cost necessary to provide for construction and perpetual upkeep. Pc = 10,000 + A/i = 10, /.08 = 11,250 Capitalized Cost = $11.25 million

66 Class Problem 2 Suppose that the flood control project has major repairs of $1 million scheduled every 5 years. We now wish to re-compute the capitalized cost.

67 Class Problem 2 Compute an annuity for the 1,000 every 5 years:
10,000 1,000 Compute an annuity for the 1,000 every 5 years:

68 Class Problem 2 Compute an annuity for the 1,000 every 5 years:
10,000 1,000 Compute an annuity for the 1,000 every 5 years: A = ,000(A/F,8,5) = ,000(.1705) = 270.5

69 Class Problem 2 10,000 1,000 10,000 Pc = 10, /.08 = 13,381

70 How Many to Change a Bulb?
How does Bill Gates change a light bulb?

71 How Many to Change a Bulb?
How does Bill Gates change a light bulb? He doesn’t, he declares darkness a new industry standard!!!

72 How Many to Change a Bulb?
How many Industrial Engineers does it take to change a light bulb?

73 How Many to Change a Bulb?
How many Industrial Engineers does it take to change a light bulb? None, IE’s only change dark bulbs!!!!!


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