2. Crime and Punishment (O’Sullivan, Ch. 16) © Allen C. Goodman 2006

3. Optimum Amount of Crime Is it ZERO? –NO !!! Why not? Because it is too costly to get to zero. Look at PREVENTION COST and VICTIM COST.

4. Prevention Cost Hardening the target. Increasing the probability of arrest. Increasing probability of imprisonment. Increasing severity of punishment. Increasing the value of legal opportunities.

5. Total Cost Analysis Suppose, w/ no prevention, we would have 100 burglaries/day. It costs $ to reduce burglaries, at increasing rate. # of burglaries 0100 Cost of Burglaries Victim cost Prevention cost Total cost B*

6. What does this say? It is efficient to prevent some of the crimes. It is less efficient to try to prevent all of them. One could draw a similar diagram for pollution. Discuss. # of burglaries 0100 Cost of Burglaries Victim cost Prevention cost Total cost B*

7. Marginal Cost Analysis It is at least as (if not more) useful to deal with marginal changes. Marginal prevention costs. Marginal victim costs. # of burglaries 0100 Cost of Burglaries Mgl Victim cost Mgl Prevention cost B*

8. Marginal Cost Analysis Suppose the prevention costs of robbery are the same as burglary. Victim costs for robbery are higher. Optimal # of burglaries is higher than optimal # of robberies. # of crimes 0100 Cost of Burglaries MVC -B Mgl Prevention cost B* MVC -R R*

9. Broken Windows Is it reality, or appearance (the broken windows) that is important?broken windows What is more important, total or marginal impacts? –What does that imply about the deployment of resources? How does the individual relate to the community?

10. Crime Prevention Activities Fundamentally, we want to reduce the return to criminal activities –Increase value of legal opportunities –Harden the targets –Decrease the value of the loot –Increase arrest rates –Increase conviction rates –Increase sentences

11. Worksheet

12. Crime Prevention Activities Increase value of legal opportunities

13. Crime Prevention Activities Harden the targets, or Decrease the value of the loot.

14. Crime Prevention Activities Increase the arrest, or the conviction rate.

15. Crime Prevention Activities Increase the sentence

16. Deterrence and Criminal Activity Idea. Criminals do crime as a rational activity. Pick the activity that provides the highest return. Punishing some activities may deter some criminals from crime. May push others into different crimes.

17. Deterrence and Criminal Activity Stiffer penalties might cause some criminals to upgrade to more serious crime. Might cause some criminals to downgrade to less serious crime. May cause some not to be criminals. Some economists try to use same analyses for “crimes of passion.” Results are mixed.