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Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America A new NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission dedicated to improving the accuracy, precision and resolution of atmospheric inverse estimates of CO 2 and CH 4 sources and sinks Kenneth Davis 1, David Baker 2, John Barrick 3, Joseph Berry 4, Kevin Bowman 5, Edward Browell 3, Lori Bruhwiler 6, Gao Chen 3, George Collatz 7, Robert Cook 8, Scott Denning 2, Jeremy Dobler 9, Chris Hostetler 3, Syed Ismail 3, Andrew Jacobson 6, Anna Karion 6, Klaus Keller 1, Thomas Lauvaux 5, Bing Lin 3, Byron Meadows 3, Anna Michalak 4, Natasha Miles 1, John Miller 6, Berrien Moore 10, Amin Nehrir 3, Lesley Ott 7, Michael Obland 3, Christopher O’Dell 2, Stephen Pawson 7, Gabrielle Petron 6, Scott Richardson 1, Andrew Schuh 2, Colm Sweeney 6, Pieter Tans 6, Yaxing Wei 8, Melissa Yang 3, and Fuqing Zhang 1 1 The Pennsylvania State University, 2 Colorado State University, 3 NASA Langley Research Center, 4 Carnegie Institution of Stanford, 5 NASA Jet Propulsion Lab, 6 NOAA ESRL/University of Colorado, 7 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 8 Oak Ridge National Lab, 9 Exelis, Inc., 10 University of Oklahoma This investigation is supported by NASA’s Earth System Science Pathfinder Program Office. Motivation Goals Investigation concept Investigation Implementation Instruments, Models and Aircraft Management and Science Teams Image credit: Tim Marvel / NASA Langley Our inability to quantify carbon fluxes with accuracy and precision across regional domains is a primary methodological challenge in carbon cycle science today. It hamstrings our ability to address all other terrestrial carbon cycle science questions. Overarching goal: The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport- America (ACT-America) mission aims to enable and demonstrate a new generation of atmospheric inversion systems for quantifying CO 2 and CH 4 sources and sinks at regional scales. These inversion systems will be able to: Evaluate and improve terrestrial carbon cycle models, and Monitor carbon fluxes to support climate-change mitigation efforts. 1.Quantify and reduce atmospheric transport uncertainty, 2.Improve regional, seasonal estimates of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes, and 3.Evaluate the sensitivity of Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) column CO 2 measurements to regional variability in tropospheric CO 2. The overarching goal will be addressed by three mission goals, each of which addresses one of the three primary limits on the accuracy and precision of atmospheric inversions; atmospheric transport error, prior flux estimate error, and limited atmospheric data density. Aspiration: New flux and atmospheric transport process understanding will be common across the mid-latitudes, and the OCO-2 evaluation will apply globally, thus the results of the study will improve atmospheric inverse flux estimates around the globe and over decades. Fair-weather (flux-dominated) flight plan (goals 1 and 2) Measure winds, ABL depth, CO 2, CH 4 and tracers (CO, 14 CO 2, O 3, COS) across 100’s of km. Solve for regional fluxes for the days of flights directly – prune prior flux estimates. Evaluate fair weather meteorology in atmospheric transport ensemble. Prune transport ensemble. Stormy-weather (transport-dominated) flight plans (goal 1) Measure atmospheric state, CO 2, CH 4 and tracers (CO, 14 CO 2, O 3, COS) across and around frontal systems. Evaluate atmospheric transport in our model ensemble. Prune transport ensemble. OCO-2 under-flights (goal 3) Measure most of the atmospheric CO 2 column with precision at 20km horizontal resolution across 100’s of km below OCO-2. Also measure aerosols and clouds. Compare spatial variability in airborne CO 2 to OCO-2 CO 2. Evaluate OCO-2 ability to capture tropospheric CO 2 variability. Quantify OCO-2 high resolution data quality. Need North American terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 fluxes estimated using atmospheric inversions. Figure shows mean values and published uncertainties. Figure courtesy Martha Butler, Penn State Vision of error reduction in regional flux inversions to be achieved via the ACT America mission. Compare airborne CO 2, CH 4 and other atmospheric state data to a flux and transport model simulation of the flight region. Opportunties for collaboration are abundant! Contact kjd10@psu.edu. Prune the ensemble to eliminate unrealistic flux prior and transport models (see idealized example above). Quantify OCO-2 high-resolution data quality and uncertainty. Use the pruned ensemble and OCO-2 data quality characterization for more accurate and precise regional flux inversions using the long-term GHG observational network (towers, flasks, satellite, profiling aircraft). Hypothesis: Mid-latitude atmospheric GHG transport is dominated by synoptic weather. Synoptic conditions can be divided roughly into high- and low-pressure conditions. We have structured our flight plans along these lines. Image credit: Tim Marvel / NASA Langley Principal Investigator: Kenneth Davis, Penn State Project Scientist: Bing Lin, NASA LaRC Project Manager: Michael Obland, NASA LaRC Instrument and Aircraft Logistics Manager: Byron Meadows, NASA LaRC Instrument Science Manager: Amin Nehrir, NASA LaRC Deputy PI for Goals 1 and 2: Thomas Lauvaux, NASA JPL Deputy PI for Goal 3: Christopher O’Dell, Colorado State Science team categories: Instrument science; Aircraft observational studies; Regional atmospheric and inversion modeling; Global atmospheric and inversion modeling; Ecosystem carbon cycle modeling; Satellite CO 2 data evaluation; Statistical and ensemble methods; Data and model management. Image credit: Tim Marvel / NASA Langley Boxes show approximate locations of regional flights. Schedule Year 1 (2015): Instrument aircraft, integrate modeling systems, perform flight design simulations. Years 2-4 (2016-18): Five flight campaigns and analyses. Address goals 1-3. Year 5 (2019): Wrap up goals 1-3. Apply findings to a multi- year reanalysis of N. American C fluxes using long-term observational assets (i.e., demonstrate new atmospheric inversion system). Field campaigns Five, six-week flight campaigns. Sample each season, with a repeat summer campaign. 2 weeks in each region (NE, MW, SE). 4 flights per region (both aircraft) Roughly 3:1 ratio between weather vs. OCO-2 flights Aim for at least one fair and stormy weather flight in each region, for each campaign. Wallops C-130 replaces the proposed P-3B, and carries remote and in situ instruments. Langley UC-12 carries in situ instruments. Conceptual map of model-data synthesis plans, including a list of the model components to be used to create flux-transport model ensembles.