1. Project Management Bus 4017 Week 5. Feb. 3, 2003 Agenda: Reminder: Charter, Communication matrix, Responsibility matrix did you complete it for the World Trade Tower exercise – for your own records? Hand in Terms and definitions-2 marks. Keep a copy. Review last week’s learning-WBS pop quiz. Keep your copy, but give me one. 1 mark. Groups, Finish the tea WBS and 2 charts-Instructor review. New Learning: Theory, Estimating and bids.P. 153-178 Group activity-building a data base –as a complete project.

2. Terms and Definitions – assignment Turn in at start of class Wk. 5 What? 2 or more pages of single spaced. Where from: the movie, Verzuh book, PowerPoints, and class web sites. Why? So you understand the meanings when you take the midterm. So the classes have more meaning.

3. Review so far Project definition = Develop S.O.W (Purpose, scope, deliverables, responsibilities). 2. Risk management strategy 3. Work breakdown structure- relationships 4.Estimates-work packages 5. Schedule-calculate CPM and Float 6. Assign and level resources 7. Redefine any/all above to achieve cost, time and quality equilibrium. Iteration-first pass. Continue to redefine

4. Negotiation in organization A Proper Approach Firms should view conflicts within the organization as conflicts between allies, not opponents Approaching intra-project conflicts with a desire to win a victory over the other parties is inappropriate The project manager should remember that he/she will be negotiating with project stakeholders many times in the future The proper objective should be to optimize the outcome in terms of overall

5. Negotiation key points. Some of 16 steps 1. E.g.Disregard appearances 2. Frame each issue 3. Acknowledge legitimate points 4. Focus on common interests 5. Give them a stake 6. Resources you share – identify, etc. If they wont negotiate Examples of phrasing when the other party reuses to negotiate or use dirty tricks. E.g. please correct me if I’m wrong Get a third persons input- an authority preferred

6. Example Continued: Constructing a PERT or CPM Schedule Step #4 – Add in the times required to complete each task. The Critical Path is then defined as the path with the longest duration from Start to End Step #5 – Calculate Slack for activities which do not appear along the Critical Path Find out the earliest start time (EST) and latest start time (LST) for each task so that the duration of the project is not impacted Slack is the difference between the EST & LST Example; Duration of the Project is 19 days Activity E requires 5 days to be accomplished LST: Activity E must be started by Day 14 (19-5) so that the project is completed by Day 19 EST: Activity E depends on Activity B being completed. The earliest B can be completed is Day 4. Thus the earliest Activity E could Start would be Day 5 6 2 5 8 4 5 Critical Path = A,C,F (19days) Therefore the slack in this example is _____ days 10

7. Example Continued: Constructing a PERT or CPM Schedule Step #4 – Add in the times required to complete each task. The Critical Path is then defined as the path with the longest duration from Start to End Step #5 – Calculate Slack for activities which do not appear along the Critical Path Find out the earliest start time (EST) and latest start time (LST) for each task so that the duration of the project is not impacted Slack is the difference between the EST & LST Example; Duration of the Project is 19 days Activity E requires 5 days to be accomplished LST: Activity E must be started by Day 14 (19-5) so that the project is completed by Day 19 EST: Activity E depends on Activity B being completed. The earliest B can be completed is Day 4. Thus the earliest Activity E could Start would be Day 5 6 2 5 8 4 5 Critical Path = A,C,F (19days) Therefore the slack in this example is _____ days 10

8. P.E.R.T. elements on the network diagram Be able to draw a box as per book showing above. Float/slack: Look at the PERT box and note difference between the ES and the LS times. Critical path is defined by the overall times of PERT boxes in which there is no float. Task ID # Time (duration) ESLS EFLF Float

9. Slack or float 123456789101 1213141516171819 BBBBEEEEE E EEEE E FLOAT TIME 9 DAYS Task. ETime.5 Earliest start. 5 Latest start 14 Float 9 days From the example. Previous page enter calculations and check answer. E can be started from 5 th to 14 th. Need 5 days to do job. Cant start till B done. E FLOAT TIME 9 DAYS

10. Today’s class as a WBS

11. Group work-complete the Pot of Tea Show WBS diagram Show Network Schedule Show GANTT chart

12. New Learning: Estimating and budgeting. Verzuh. P. 153-178 Estimating is an art and science. Estimate is a forecast. Hard to forecast future. Based on assumption rather more than facts. Computers used for large estimates. Statistics and probability part of estimating large projects. If the project is coming in under budget last phases estimates are bases on concave curve. If estimates is coming in over budget last phase estimated based on convex curve. Overestimating can result in loss of approval for project. Underestimating results in loss of profit and cancellation of projects. Estimating can be used for time as well as $. Time estimates become schedules. $ estimates becomes budgets.

13. Budgets – are estimated then allocated. Budgets usually are the $ provided or allocated to do the job. They are approved based on the best estimates provided. Budgets can be managed or controlled They are detailed and follow accounting guidelines They are allocated by department or job. They can be be controlled in terms of cash flow. Budgets cover specific periods – usually a year. Budgets are based on

14. Estimates:Hi level Top down methods ( used upper and middle management). a) Ball park to check if it’s worth making a detailed estimate. Best guess or x 2. Falls in a range? If still not good get some specifications and then ball part. b) Order of magnitude – previous experience and relate to present project (bigger smaller, better or less quality?) c) Apportioning – total budget allocated to phase of project as per hi level WBS. Need historical data. 1st phase done then re-assess. Overall estimate must first be accurate. d) Phasing - estimate one product cycle as a project. e) Apportioning and phasing combined.

15. Estimates: detailed Parametric. Measure this and that and then apply to your specs. E.g. always need two types of info. Take out food. Dinner for one is $5.00. How much for 4 people? (info:price and people). Some saving due to quantity but roughly $18-20. Verzuh. P. 164-168

16. Estimating: hi level and detailed combined Phasing: estimates one project phase and product cycle at a time. 1. Will use Order of magnitude to establish feasibility of going ahead with detailed estimate for the phase. 2. Will develop detailed estimate for the phase. 3. Will provide magnitude for remainder of project. 4. Repeat items 1 to 3 after each phase. In construction-do the estimate as per design and blueprints, (1 st phase) and see if cost of house is affordable to those specs. When detailed estimate (2nd phase). completed build first section of house. Estimate another section of house (3 rd phase) then build.

17. Estimates, non detailed: Top down are more general estimates. Using various combined top down methods can be accurate Advantages: Not every detail needs to be estimated. Upper management have access to experience, access to historical records and big picture of what is needed. Will approve large amounts of money quickly Disadvantages: Doesn’t include people doing the job in the decision making Executives forget the cost of detailed items and there can be many. Executives don’t always trust motives

18. Estimates, detailed: Bottom up are detailed estimates. Experts or team involvement Use tasks from WBS to estimate Must include your labour cost (aggregate/include benefits etc. ) Includes internal equip. costs Include external suppliers Advantages: Accuracy good More involvement of those who do the job (good morale and qualified). Disadvantages: Can be inflated Need to convince upper management

19. Resolving top down vs bottom up using iteration Upper and lower management seldom agree. Upper management not in touch with some aspects. Lower management protects themselves with “cushons” if things go wrong. (Murphy’s Law. People who want project completed have bias to adjust budgets up or down. Iterative process resolves the above. Iterative process Lower (mgrs. ) departments, ask for budget $ based on estimates. Management sends estimate back, says too high. Line managers adjust and explain why they need more $ Upper management begins to understand then give more $ Repeat above process until agreement or go ahead with project given and funds allocated (budgeted).

20. Questions about estimating: Why do we estimate? What are 3 types of estimate that reflect levels of accuracy What are executive estimates called? What type of estimate would a bricklayer use? Does estimate and a budget mean the same thing? What two things can result from underestimating projects? Explain the term “Ball park estimating”? Would you use Ball park to price a task on the WBS? What is the relationship of the WBS to the estimate? What’s the process called when management sends the estimate back to the workers and they revise and send it back?