1. Availability Assessment Ω PS Analyzer User Group Meeting 2013 November 13 by Greg van Bavel

2. 2 Overview Continuous development of ΩPS Analyzer –Analysis of “repairs and spares” Availability –So many definitions, so little time… –Some new applications –Connection to EBO, ISS, PBA, etc

3. 3 Introduction Equipment maintained by a policy of repair-by- replacement Impact on availability: –If no in-service support (ISS) is available, then the system is not available –If no spare is available, then the system is not available Complex system –Multi-indenture system supported by a network of multi-echelon, geographically dispersed facilities

4. 4 In-Service Support (ISS) All activities, including, but not limited to, engineering services (such as maintenance, repair, test and upgrade), logistics (such as parts supply, documentation and training) and related management functions, necessary to maintain a CF platform throughout its service life. –DND Defence Terminology Bank

5. 5 ΩPS Analyzer Back-Story Foundational work began in the 1980s –Where: Department of National Defence (DND) –Then: Operational Research Division (ORD) –Now: Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA) DND partnered with Pennant Canada to further develop these tools into an integrated Windows™ based application in the 2000s Continuous development of tools, for example –Level of Repair Analysis (LORA) –Life Cycle Costing (LCC) –Sparing Analysis

6. 6 Continuous Development A practical approach to dealing with the way technology and tools are actually changing –The cycle: formulation → implementation → application → formulation … Requires collaborators who can tolerate uncertainty, change and open-endedness

7. 7 Level of Repair Analysis LORA goal: to determine the configuration of ISS to minimize cost Fixed costs: –Independent of replaceable-part failures –Examples: test facilities, personnel, tools Variable costs: –Depend upon number of failures –Examples: surge-capability HR, transportation of spares

8. 8 Sparing Analysis Goal: to allocate inventory within the ISS network such that an affordable Expected Backorder (EBO) is achieved Minimizing EBO is roughly equivalent to maximizing availability Principal trade-off: holding cost increases as EBO decreases

9. 9 Availability – Some Definitions 1 Basic: fraction of time that the system is operable Inherent: ideal state of the system –Ignores preventative maintenance and various delays found in practice Achieved: preventative maintenance included –Ignores logistics and administrative delays

10. 10 Availability – Some Definitions 2 Operational: accounts for corrective and preventative maintenance, as well as downtime prior to maintenance –Includes “induced” failures (e.g., ISS itself causes a malfunction) ASOAR: Achieving a System Operational Availability Requirement –Uses “calendar time” to handle systems with component-dependent operating tempos

11. 11 Key Distinction Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) –Reciprocal of the operating-time failure rate Versus Mean Calendar Time Between Failures (MCTBF) –Reciprocal of the calendar-time failure rate

12. 12 Achievable Platform Availability Utility (APAU) Availability is a key factor in materiel acquisition and support –Definition phase: establish Performance- Based Accountability (PBA) requirements –Implementation phase: check feasibility of ISS solution APAU requires data regarding equipment specifications, maintenance capabilities, and logistics-support services

13. 13 Performance-Based Accountability (PBA) Pay for results, not effort Policies and procedures designed to ensure that payment is directly related to performance in the delivery of products or services, rather than the completion of project milestones and/or deliverables Expected to reduce costs and improve outcomes (materiel acquisition & support)

14. 14 APAU – Main Features Computes several types of availability indicators Allows various logistics support configuations Quantifies relationship between Mean Logistics Downtime (MLDT) and other availability data Uses a cost-to-failure rate ratio to allocate MLDT Uses MCTBF to handle systems with components that have different operating tempos –Not all sub-systems are ‘on’ simultaneously

15. 15 APAU – Further Development Use Halifax class data to prepare APAU for Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC) –Start with a well-known sub-system and then add other sub-systems Develop practical methods –Increasing complexity during the iterative design of the CSC –Collecting and pre-processing more and more data to obtain required inputs

16. 16 Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC) Replaces both Halifax class figates and Iroquois class destroyers Part of the National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy (NSPS) Industry engagement based on the Statement of Requirements –Ship design, costs, timelines …and ISS too PBA (or some variant) will be applied

17. 17 Availability Discrete Event Simulator (ADES) Generic simulation –Runs on calendar time Combines three principal aspects of military operations that affect availability –Mission generation –Fleet Hierarchy: Holding areas / platforms / components –ISS capabilities Three lines of maintenance

18. 18 ADES – Main Features Models platform running states, failure events, and repair processes Offers twenty probability distributions Uses standard quantities as input –E.g., Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), Mean Time To Repair (MTTR), scheduled maintenance periods, etc. Provides fleet availability as main output –Other outputs include total time (of simulation), uptime, downtime, mission time, idle time, etc.

19. 19 Summary Availability is a key quantity in materiel acquisition and support –APAU: Calculates availability given manufacturer’s specifications or DND observations (snapshot) –ADES: Calculates availability by simulating the time-development of a fleet’s missions, platforms, and ISS activities (movie)

20. 20 Conclusion Availability assessment is an analytical capability that is aligned with current and emerging government policies –Continuous development –Industry engagement throughout all MA&S phases (options definition to disposal) –NSPS –ISS –PBA

21. Questions? Gregory van Bavel Directorate Materiel Group Operational Research (DMGOR) Édifice Louis Saint Laurent 555 Boulevard de la Carrière Gatineau, QC J8Y 6R5 Tel: 819-997-9189 E-mail: gregory.vanbavel@forces.gc.ca