1. Recent Developments in the SCS Lingqun Li The China Center of South China Sea Studies 2014.09.30

2. 2 Basic facts 2010 Asia Pivot (taking position) 2012 Scarborough standoff 2013.01 Initiation of int’l arbitration 2013 summer China patrolled Second Thomas Shoal 2013.11 ADIZ 2013.12 USS cowpens 2013.12 $40 millions military aid to Manila 2014.01-04 Congressional hearings (taking side) 2014.01 Hainan fishing regulation 2014.04 Obama’s trip to four Asian countries 2014.05 deployment of oil rig in the Paracels 2014.07 withdrawal of the oil rig 2014.08 U.S. “Freeze” proposal on the ARF

3. 3 The Balkanization of the SCS An area under overlapping claims => A theater for great power rivalry Tensions are rising Security dilemma is taking shape Vicious cycle of action-reaction is spinning

4. 4 The water is boiling Heightened tensions increase the risk of misperception, over-exaggeration and miscalculation : 1. Every small move gets wide exposure and occupies headlines 2. Leaders stand tough before domestic audience and int’l community 3. Distortion of / distraction from the dispute per se

5. 5 Major Causes 1.The U.S.: strategic rebalance 2.China: leadership change 3.Weakness of ASEAN: lack of unity and innovation

6. 6 The role of ASEAN A mediator: 1.Trust b/t U.S. and China plummeted 2.Lack of communication for managing inadvertent incidents 3.Common interests A leadership role: 1.Bring attention back to the dispute 2.Engagement 3.New thinking: two-track 4.New vision: new Asia?

7. 7 Thank you!