1. IDENTIFYING HOT BRAZILIAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: TECH MINING METHODS FOR RELATING SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE AND EMERGING RESEARCH AREAS EU-SPRI CONFERENCE, 12-13 June 2012 Hannes Toivanen VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Email. Hannes.Toivanen@vtt.fi

2. 2 Knowledge dynamics and domestic capabilities  What role do domestic capabilities play for countries trying to move towards knowledge economy?  National systems of innovation framework  Are countries focussing on strategic areas of science and technology in research?  Can we distinguish between or measure the geographic location of knowledge creation?  The objective is to clarify methods to identify with enhanced accuracy emerging trends within fields and countries  (1) To identify “hot” research fields within Brazilian research;  (2) Assess to what degree different “hot fields” rely on Brazilian knowledge bases vs. foreign ones. Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost

3. 3 Data  XML data from Thomsom Reuters: Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) papers with at least one Brazilian research address from years 2005-2009, forming SOURCE data set;  Total number of papers: 152,031. For this paper, only articles and proceedings were incluced, totalling 127,826.  In addition: CITING: All papes making citations to SOURCE papers (283,131 records);  Unique identifier linking CITED, SOURCE and CITING papers;  Note: not ISI indexed citation references not included in data;  Data delivery in May 2010 – Cut-off date for accumulating citations  Linking CITING papers, we included whole data that was classified as ”hot”.  To classify research fields, we use ISI Subject categories that are grouped in OECD Minor Fields  Reliability issues with the ISI Subject Categories (Leydesdorff & Rafols 2008; Boyack et al 2005);  Data processed with Vantage Point software

4. 4 Measuring “domestic” and “foreign”contributions  Typically papers are counted as a ”whole”, despite of how many people or institutions are listed as authors (Total records)  ->what is the amount of noise in authorships?  We distuingish between Brazilian and Foreign institutional authorship (Research country)  Fractional domestic count (FDC) vs Fractional other count  Relative shares of instances of research addresses = institutional share of authorship  Institutional authorship:  Each author gives at least one research address;  Each completely identical research address is indexed as one (e.g. different department or street of same organization is indexed as 2 separate addresses  Issues in estimating institutional authorship:  Multiple authors from one address are counted as only one;  One author with multiple addresses is counted multiple times;  Is a proxy – reliability and accuracy subject to validation Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost

5. 5 Defining “hot papers” and “hot fields”  ”Hot papers” have quickly impact on research – number of citations  Can be self-citation or ”genuine” citation  Citation as a ”relationship” between papers  Citations received within narrow time-window  Times cited / Share of citations (to select ”hot papers”)  The share of citations received +/- 1 year from publication date from total citations accumulated by total national output  E.g. For Brazilian papers for 2005, we identify all papers that have received citations by papers (only ISI indexed) published in 2004, 2005, and 2006.  The most 10% cited papers from all articles with at least one author coming from Brazil  ”Hot fields” (to classify ”hot papers”)  Because we include journal articles and conference prodeecings, we use the ISI Subject Categories, which total over 249 different fields (2012) (alternative would be journal fields)  These are consolidated into 39 different OECD Minor Fields Changing the date: View – Slide Master – change the date on the slide master uppermost

6. 6 Defining Brazilian ”Hot papers” 2005, 2007, 2009  The 10% from all annual articles and conference proceedings receiving most citations +/-1 year from publication date  Account about 40% all citations received in this period  Less than 5% of all papers

7. 7 Top-20 Brazilian OECD Minor fields 05-07-09 (total records) Rank by 2005 totals

8. 8 Top-20 Brazilian ”Hot Paper” fields 05-09 – Total Records Rank by 2005 total record rankings for ”hot paper” total records from here onwards (number of total records 2009)  ”Hot fields” are more concentrated than overall research

9. 9 Average share of ”hot papers” 05-07-09. Total records and fractional count shares.  Total records over-estimates ”hotness”  ”Hotness” revealed by fractional domestic count

10. 10 Average share of ”total record” and ”BR FDC” ”hot papers” 05-07-09 from all citations received by ”hot papers”  Total records over-estimates ”hotness”  ”Hotness” revealed by fractional domestic count

11. 11 Results and conclusions  Fractional domestic count reveals a lot of ”noise” total in record count of national ”hotness”  With FDC volume and rank of ”hotness” of papers and fields changes substantially  Comparison of total records vs Fractional domestic count ”hotness”  Physical sciences, astronomy declines from 1st to 5th (papers)  Chemical sciences advances from 5th to 1st (papers) and from 5th to 2nd (citations)  Emerging Brazilian ”hot fields” become visible (papers and citations):  Materials engineering, Environmental engineering, Other agricultural science Mathematics, Other engineering and technologies  Total record count is fine when ”hotness” is measured in global science  Regional strategic (systems of innovation) ”hotness” requires assessment of ”localness” in total volume and citations