1. US Hegemony and Military Primacy Andres Gannon, UC Berkeley

3. Definition Hegemony is a condition of dominance in the international system Hegemony is not a strategy, it is a goal or the result of other strategies

4. Hegemony in international relations Goal of the United States and all other powers is hegemony Regional hegemons have always existed Arguable about whether or not there has ever been a global hegemony

5. How does America do it? Example of US Hegemony

7. Economic Power The productive capacity of a state or territory that it rules over What can a state make? How efficiently can it do it?

8. Financial Power Distinct from economic power because it is about how much money a government can raise and how it manages its funds US has had strong financial and economic power since 1919 due to victory in both world wars The US was able to make a lot of equipment and lend huge amounts of money to our allies

9. Soft Power The cultural appeal of a country Intangible reputation How attractive values are to others Respect for their way of life

10. Military Power The ability to impose your will onto others It allows us to quickly defeat adversaries

11. Relationship between determinants Economic Power Financial Power Soft Power Military Power

12. Relationship between determinants No one factor can maintain hegemony Soviet Union 1980

14. U.S. National Security Strategy Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine

15. Grand Strategy Plan to direct all assets at the disposal of our government towards the broadest ends of American interest ▫Homeland security ▫International peace ▫Prevention of global wars ▫Democracy ▫Economic prosperity ▫Human rights Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine

16. Military Strategy Military portion of grand strategy Where are our military assets deployed Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine

17. Operations Only relevant in war-time Describes how we fight a series of battles (a campaign) to fulfill the plans laid down Goal of operations is to fulfill strategic goals and military strategy Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine

18. Tactical Methods that units use to achieve specific battle field tasks ▫Pinning an enemy by flanking them on both sides ▫Guerilla warfare tactic ▫Capturing strategic terrain (hill) Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine

19. Rules we create to govern the use of force and methods we use to fight ▫Counterinsurgency ▫Counterterrorism The way we implement a doctrine in a specific country is a strategy Grand Strategy Military Strategy Military Operations Tactics Doctrine

20. World War II Example Grand Strategy – Unconditionally defeat the Axis of Evil Military Strategy – In Pacific Ocean, use US power to crush Japan’s main fleet and close in until they were forced to submit Military Operations – Assault the islands one by one Tactical – launching shells from battle ships with a low level trajectory, destroy Japanese guns and flamethrowers Doctrine – use firepower to crush Japanese defenses and then use a frontal assault on the beaches (amphibious assault)

21. Military strategy on the topic Most affirmatives occur at the level of military strategy How are goals accomplished with the military in general Withdrawing all forces from one country changes military strategy

23. Synonyms Hegemony Primacy Leadership Global cop Pax Americana Unipolarity Unilateralism Military dominance Global superiority

24. Key Authors Khalilzad, Stillgood Robert Kagan Lieber and Press Charles Krauthammer Thayer Brooks and Wohlforth Joseph Nye Colin Gray Mandelbaum Max Boot

25. Key Sources Carnegie Endowment Council on Foreign Relations Heritage Foundation

26. Polarity Unipolarity – only one great power exists Bipolarity – two powerful states that dominate all the others Multipolarity – many states of equivalent power

27. “-lateralism” Unilateralism – acting alone without making policies dependent on what allies think Multilateralism – acting with others and engaging in cooperation and consultation Bilateralism – acting or cooperating with another power, often of equal power

28. Balancing Offshore Balancing – Withdrawing our foreign commitments and maintaining our military and international presence from the mainland Counterbalancing – When countries line up against the United States so that their combined power matched or exceeds that of the hegemon Softbalancing – diplomatic friction against a hegemon when countries are hesitant to cooperate or support hegemonic military action

30. Key Factors Economics ▫Forward deployment, army, navy, tech, free riders Counter-balancing ▫Adversaries who don’t like taking orders Decadence ▫Spirit of sacrifice causes power ▫22,000 Central Pacific v 4,000 Iraq ▫100,000 British

31. Key Factors Overstretch ▫Forces get spread thin Relative Decline ▫Rise of other challengers causes multipolarity ▫Relative power History ▫Rome, Sparta, Athens, Persia, Greece, Aztecs, Mayans, Chinese, Mongols, Spanish…US?

32. The Case for Sustainability American exceptionalism ▫Democratic ▫Western hemisphere ▫No counterbalancing ▫No direct colonization ▫Geography Relative dominance ▫Spend more on defense than next 10-25 countries ▫Economy is third globally ▫Fight 3 wars at a time

33. The Case for Sustainability Absence of peer competitors ▫China can’t win wars ▫Russia is poor and can’t win wars either ▫Europe is internally divided and lazy Better than alternatives ▫China is hated ▫Russia is crazy

34. Why Sustainability Matters If decline can be avoided (if hegemony is sustainable) then it is easier to win that it is desirable If decline is inevitable, strategies to maintain it may be bad and we should shift now to ensure a stable and peaceful transition

36. Great Power Wars Smaller powers have an incentive to cooperate with a greater power because the US can punish them military Multipolar systems are problematic because the margins of power between actors is low Europe 1914

37. Rise of Hostile Competitors Strong US can deter others from even trying to upset the international system

38. Regional Wars US can intervene in wars between weaker states ▫Bosnia, 1994 ▫Kosovo, 1998 ▫Gulf War, 1991 ▫North Korea, TBA ▫India-Pakistan, TBA ▫China-Taiwan, TBA ▫Israel-Iran, TBA

39. Cooperation Bandwagoning – when smaller states follow the lead of a hegemon and support them rather than counterbalancing Encourages cooperation on economic, environmental, and health issues

40. Transition Wars Regardless of whether hegemony is good or bad, decline should be avoided because the transition to a new system will be violent Rising powers would lash out to undermine US standing US would lash out to prevent a rising power from overwhelming us

41. Power Vacuum No one else can fill in causing global fragmentation (Dark Ages) Partial fill in causes spheres of influence ▫China dominates East Asia ▫Russia reabsorbs former Soviet states

43. Multipolarity Solves More stable, aggressive posture encourages hostility when power erodes Spheres of influence good

44. Terrorism Causes resentment in the Middle East ▫Occupation ▫Hostility

45. Proliferation Causes asymetrical strategies to compete with us since they can’t compete conventionally Nuclear weapons pack a hard punch

46. Counter-balancing Others band together against the US which can escalate regional wars and disputes ▫Russia-China

47. Intervention Hegemony makes us more likely to intervene in conflicts where we don’t belong ▫Vietnam ▫Iraq

49. Key Arguments Sustainability Resentment inevitable Reintervention Transition Fill in Balancing