1. The Impact of Social-Psychological Factors on Reproductive Intentions Ekaterina Golovlyanitsina GGS Russia 2004 The Independent Institute for Social Policy

2. Non-material Determinants of Reproductive Intentions Orientations towards traditional values: religiousness conservatism Social-psychological factors: the attitude towards bearing a child subjective norm behavioral control

3. Theory of Planned Behavior [Fishbein, Ajzen 1975, 1988] Personal preferences and dispositions; Exogenous incentives and restrictions, etc. Attitude Norm Control IntentionBehavior

4. The Sample and Questions Sample : Women 18-44 (except for pensioners, disabled, unable to bear a child, pregnant). 2604 respondents. Attitude: Let’s imagine that you will have a (another) child in the next three years. In your opinion, how this would influence various aspects of your life? [ability to do what you want, opportunities at work, satisfaction with life, relationships with partner, with parents etc.] Perceived norm: Although the decision to have or not to have a (another) child should be yours and (your partner’s/spouse’s), your relatives and friends might also have an opinion as to what you should do in the next three years. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements: Most of your friends // relatives // Your parents think that you should have a (another) child Behavioral control: To what extent does your decision to have or not to have a (another) child depend on financial situation, R’s work, housing, R’s health, etc.

5. Women expect that childbirth will worsen their employment situations, but enhance their emotional conditions The attitude – the degree to which performance of the behavior is positively or negatively valued

6. Perceived norm – behavioral expectations of important referent individuals or groups (the person's, family, friends, etc.) Women not expecting any support from relatives tend to decline childbearing

7. Behavioral control – a person’s beliefs about the presence of factors that may facilitate or impede the action Women intending to have a child see external factors as unimportant

8. Binary logistic regression models of reproductive intentions 1) General intentions R 2 = 0,39 (only psychological factors = 0,33) N = 2032 2) Intentions for the next 3 years R 2 = 0,55 (only psychological factors = 0,44) N = 2331 According to the theory of planned behavior, psychological factors work as better determinants than objective characteristics

9. Y axis – the possibility that a woman intends to have a child General intentions: the attitude and other psychological factors are major determinants

10. Intentions for 3 years: both psychological factors and objective characteristics of women matter Y axis – the possibility that a woman intends to have a child in the next 3 years

11. The income effect dramatically decreases when psychological factors are in the model

12. Perceived norm and household income

13. Conclusions Psychological factors are good predictors of reproductive intentions, though some methodological problems persist Expected reaction of relatives and friends turns out to be both the strongest incentive and the strongest restriction of reproductive intentions of Russian women Intention to have a first child depends only on attitute and perceived norm; intention for second and more child depends on attitude, perceived norm and household financial wellbeing