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GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensification forecasting.

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Presentation on theme: "GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensification forecasting."— Presentation transcript:

1 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Applications of satellite-derived ocean measurements to tropical cyclone intensification forecasting Gustavo Jorge Goni National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida, USA Mark DeMaria, NOAA, USA. John Knaff, NOAA, USA. Charles Sampson, NRL, USA. Isaac Ginis, Univ. Rhode Island, USA. Francis Bringas, Univ. of Miami / CIMAS, USA. Alberto Mavume, Univ. of Cape Town, South Africa. Chris Lauer, NOAA, USA. I-I Lin, National Taiwan University, Taiwan. M. M. Ali, National Remote Sensing Center, India. Paul Sandery, Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia. Silvana Ramos-Buarque, Mercator Ocean, France. KiRyong Kang, National Typhoon Center, South Korea. Avichal Mehra, NOAA, USA. Eric Chassignet, Florida State University/COAPS, USA. George Halliwell, University of Miami, USA.

2 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Global tropical cyclone genesis NE Pac Atlantic SW Indian NW Pac SW PacSE Indian N Indian 1990-2005

3 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Error reduction in track and intensity forecast (North Atlantic) 1970-2005 = 50% reduction 72h lead time 1990-2005 = 15% reduction 72h lead time = 0% reduction 24h lead time TC track prediction  Intensity prediction

4 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France The oceans and TC intensification 1972: Leipper and Volgenau 2000: Shay et al Gulf of Mexico: Opal (95), Bret (99), Ivan (04), Wilma, Rita, and Katrina (05) Caribbean Sea: Mitch (98) NW Pacific: Imbudo (03), Maemi (03) Mozambique Channel: Eline (00), Hudah (00), Japhet (03) Hurricane force winds > 64 kts 26 o C Adapted from DeMaria and Kaplan

5 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Tropical Cyclone Intensification Hurricane Katrina

6 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Altimetry-derived isotherm depths

7 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) Global validation for May 30, 2007 Rms dif = 15 kJ/cm2 www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone

8 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France TC : ocean models and efforts basinagencyeffortmode AtlanticNOAA/NWSSHIPS (statistical)operational/research NOAA/GFDLHYCOM + HWRFresearch NOAA/NCEPHYCOM + HWRFOperational in 2009 U Miami and NOAAHYCOM + HWRFresearch NOAAOcean TCHPTo operational/analysis MercatorGlobal upper ocean forecast operational NW PacNat. Taiwan Univ.Ocean TCHPResearch/analysis NE PacUS Navy and NOAASTIPS (statistical)operational N IndianNat. Remote Sensing Center Upper ocean monitoring research/analysis SW Pac SW Indian BOMCLAM/blue LinkOperational Ocean TCLAPSResearch/analysis SE IndianUCP and NOAATCHPresearch/analysis

9 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France TC and ocean models and efforts

10 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Error reduction in Intensity forecast North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific

11 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Katrina, Rita 5% Wilma 13% Ivan 20% Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from OHC for Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes Mainelli et al, 2008

12 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France NOAA/NCEP intensity prediction Rita (2005) Observed w/o NHC OHC Assimilation With NHC OHC Assimilation

13 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France HYCOM - Hurricane Ivan (2004)

14 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France GOM: Interannual variability

15 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Pacific Ocean

16 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Mozambique Channel Goni et al, 2008

17 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France North Indian Ocean May 2003

18 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MONITORING & FORECASTING ►Routine analysis and forecasting of heat content measures in Australian region based on BLUElink OceanMAPS SH OHC50m OHC200m SSTA TCHP D26C …….. http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hc/ocean_hc.shtml http://godae.bom.gov.au/oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_hcf/ocean_hcf.shtml Applications in the Australian region

19 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France ►Regional version of BLUElink ocean model coupled to Bureau of Meteorology TC Prediction Model TCLAPS ►Designed to investigate impact of coupling on ocean and weather prediction skill. ►Main application is directed towards improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. C OUPLED L IMITED A REA M ODELLING AND PREDICTION SYSTEM Applications in the Australian region

20 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Cat 1 : P a  980 hPa Cat 2 : 979  P a  965 hPa Cat 3 : 964  P a  945 hPa Cat 4 : 944  P a  920 hPa Cat 5 : P a  920 hPa TC RAMMASUN 8-13 May, 2008 Averaged Temperature in the Oceanic Mixed Layer GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATOR TC RAMMASUN Mixed Layer Temp

21 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France PSY3V1 Global (regular grid 1/2°) POSTER: Investigation on an oceanic index for monitoring Tropical Cyclones Days correlated ITCHC over the inner circle of the TC (>100days) J:J22.49 J:J-142.67 GLOBAL MODELS: MERCATOR Gulf of Mexico Cat 1 : P a  980 hPa Cat 2 : 979  P a  965 hPa Cat 3 : 964  P a  945 hPa Cat 4 : 944  P a  920 hPa Cat 5 : P a  920 hPa

22 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1 or 3 altimeters ? (left) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1, GFO and Envisat. (right) TCHP field during Katrina obtained using data from JASON-1 only.

23 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France (left) 1993-2005 average degradation in the field of TCHP after two altimeters (ERS2 and GFO) are removed. 1 or 3 altimeters ?

24 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 – 15 November 2008, Nice, France Work Ahead Research to Operations Analysis of key issues: TC translation speed, inner core - ocean interactions, positive-negative feedback. Improve models performance. Ocean observing system. Continue to have the international community involved in this type of studies. Only possible if real-time sea height fields able to resolve mesoscale from altimetry are available

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