1. Presentation for the Macaulay Honors College of the City University of New York February 4, 2015 Joseph Salvo POPULATION DIVISION The Population of New York City Recent Trends and Ongoing Challenges

2. New York City is Big and Dynamic

3. 3 Population Change for the 10 Largest Cities in the U.S., 2000 to 2013 Ranked by Population in 2013 *Achieved population peak in 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census PL 94-171 Files; 2013 American Community Survey Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

4. 2000-2010 Thousands Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; United States Department of Homeland Security as revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration

5. Changes in the Population Dynamic on the Horizon?

6. 2000-2010 2010-2013 Thousands Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data 1970-2010; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; United States Department of Homeland Security as revised by Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration

7. Migration data are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS. Does not include the income tax returns filed by those living abroad. Source: Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning Migration Patterns for Persons Filing Tax Returns New York City, 1985-2010

8. Changing Origins of In-migrants to New York City, 1995-2000 and 2008-2012 1995-20002008-2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

9. * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Census-Summary File 1, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-Summary File Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning 2008-2012 Change 2000 to 2008-2012 New York City Total = 29.1% Change Gain of 2,000 or more 1,000 to 1,999 250 to 999 -249 to 249 -250 to -999 Loss of -1,000 or more Percent 55.0% or more 45.0% to 54.9% 35.0% to 44.9% 25.0% to 34.9% Less than 25.0% (8 neighborhoods) (11) (14) (41) (114) (14 neighborhoods) (15) (45) (81) (24) (9) Non-family Householders with a Head of Household Under 65 Years by New York City Neighborhoods,* 2000 and 2008-2012

10. How the Foreign-Born Define New York City

12. 5,401,440 5,239,633 Total Population by Nativity New York City, 1970 to 2012 5,137,246 6,457,740 1,670,199 1,437,058 Percent Foreign-born 18.2 23.6 35.9 28.4 5,200,105 37.6 2,082,931 2,871,032 3,136,592 Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970 to 2000; 2012 American Community Survey Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

13. Top Ten Sources of the Foreign-born Population New York City and the United States, 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning Total = 3,154,955 * Includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. New York City Total = 40,738,224 United States

14. Bronx Manhattan Queens Staten Island New York City Total = 3,136,592 (2012 Data) Brooklyn Foreign-born 40,000 or more (7 neighborhoods) 25,000 to 39,999 (28) 15,000 to 24,999 (37) 9,000 to 14,499 (63) Under 9,000 (53) * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Total Foreign-born by Neighborhood* New York City, 2008-2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey—Summary File Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning Midwood Bedford Fordham S Beffor Pk Fordham N Borough Pk Rugby- Remsen Vl East Flushing Woodhaven Madison E Vl Clinton Whitestone LaGuardia Airport Kew Gardens Hills Pomonok- Flushing Hts- Hillcrest Auburndale Queensboro Hill John F Kennedy International Airport S Jamaica Jamaica Old Astoria Baisley Pk Ridgewood Middle Village Pelham Pkwy Williamsbridge- Olinville Murray Hill N Corona Fresh Mdws- Utopia East Elmhurst Briarwood- Jamaica Hills Brownsville E New York (PA Ave) Pkchester Erasmus Sunset Pk E Cypress Hills- City Line Greenpoint Battery Pk City- Lower MN Hunters Pt- Sunnyside- W Maspeth Co-op City V Crtlndt Vlg Woodlawn- Wakefield E Flatbush- Farragut Glendale Homecrest Seagate- Coney Island Morrisania- Melrose Bronxdale Rego Pk Corona Elmhurst Kew Gardens Laurelton Queens Village Wash Hts N Uni Hts Morris Hts Marble Hill- Inwood Bellerose Crown Hts N Yorkville Turtle Bay -E Midtown Douglas Manor- Douglaston- Little Neck W Farms- Bronx River Dyker Heights Far Rockaway- Bayswater Astoria Prospect Lefferts Gardens- Wingate Bay Ridge Sunset Pk W Gravesend Bensonhurst E Rosedale Lower E Side SoHo- TriBeCa- Civic Center- Little Italy Chinatown Richmond Hill Kbridge Hghts S Ozone Pk Sheepshead Bay- Gerritsen Beach Manhattan Beach Highbridge W Cncrs Jackson Hts Woodside Flatbush UWS UES- Carnegie Hill Lincoln Square Murray Hill- Kips Bay Morningside Hts Elmhurst-Maspeth Stuyvesant Hts N Side- S Side Forest Hills Pk Slope- Gowanus Steinway Soundview- Castle Hill- Clason Pt- Harding Pk Soundview- Bruckner Cntrl Harlem N- Polo Grounds Central Harlem S Mott Haven- Port Morris E Harlem N Hudson Yards- Chelsea- Flatiron- Union Square W Vl Bushwick N Bushwick S Allerton- Pelham Gardens Brighton Beach W Brighton Bath Beach Bensonhurst W Jamaica Estates- Holliswood Hollis Maspeth Oakland Grdns Bayside- Bayside Hills Flushing College Pt Wash Hts S Mt Hope E Cncrs- Cncrs Vl New Springville- Bloomfield- Travis Georgetown- Marine Pk- Bergen Beach- Mill Basin Canarsie Flatlands East New York Hamilton Hts Melrose S- Mott Haven N St. Albans E Harlem S Lenox Hill- Roosevelt Island Norwood Manhattanville E Tremont

15. Changes and Persistent Challenges

16. Population Growth by Race/Hispanic Origin New York City, 2000-2012 Percent Change = -2.4 11.4 -3.9 39.0 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Censuses-Summary File 1; 2012 American Community Survey Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

17. Hispanic and Asian Subgroups New York City, 2012 Total = 2,377,486 Asian* Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey- 3 Year Estimates Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning *Includes a small number of Asians who are of Hispanic origin. ** Includes Taiwanese Total = 1,064,658

18. Persons by English Language Ability New York City, 2012 Total Persons Ages 5 and Over = 7,796,356 Speaks language other than English at home 49% 3,833,928 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

19. Limited English Proficient Population by Language Spoken at Home New York City, 2012 * Includes Chinese, Cantonese, Mandarin, and Formosan Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning

20. ** Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Percent of Population* Not Proficient in English by Neighborhood Tabulation Area** New York City, 2008-2012 * Population 5 years and over Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning New York City Total = 23.3% Bronx Queens Staten Island Manhattan Brooklyn Percent Not Proficient in English 50.0% or more 40.0% to 49.9% 30.0% to 39.9% 23.0% to 29.9% Less than 23.0% (8 neighborhoods) (14) (35) (31) (100) 20

21. Percent College Graduates by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning New York City Total = 34.0% Percent Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 60.0% or more 40.0% to 59.9% 30.0% to 39.9% 20.0% to 29.9% Less than 20.0% (20 neighborhoods) (26) (34) (58) (50) * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Bronx 18.1% Queens 29.9% Staten Island 29.0% Manhattan 58.2% Brooklyn 29.8% Top Neighborhoods 1.West Village 2.Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill 3.Brooklyn Heights-Cobble Hill 4.Turtle Bay-East Midtown 5.Lincoln Square Lowest Attainment 1.Williamsburg 2.North Corona 3.Longwood 4.Claremont-Bathgate 5.Hunts Point 21

22. Shares of Aggregate Household Income by Quintile New York City, 1980-2011 and United States, 2011 Top 20% of households have aggregate income = 2.02.32.43.2 1980199020002011 New York CityU.S. Source: 1980 and 1990 PUMS, 2000 U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning 22 100 75 50 25 0

23. Poverty Rate by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning New York City Total = 19.9% Poverty Rate 45.0% or more 35.0% to 44.9% 25.0% to 34.9% 15.0% to 24.9% Less than 15.0% (4 neighborhoods) (15) (32) (48) (89) * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Bronx 29.3% Queens 14.4% Staten Island 11.3% Manhattan 17.5% Brooklyn 22.7% Top Neighborhoods 1.Williamsburg 2.Belmont 3.Claremont-Bathgate 4.Hunts Point 5.East Tremont 23

24. Persons with Ratio of Income to Poverty Level of 1.00 to 1.99 by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning New York City = 19.7% Percent 30.0% or more 25.0% to 29.9% 20.0% to 24.9% 15.0% to 19.9% Less than 15.0% (6 neighborhoods) (35) (48) (43) (56) * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Bronx 24.5% Queens 19.3% Staten Island 12.8% Manhattan 15.4% Brooklyn 21.2% Top Neighborhoods 1.North Corona 2.Sunset Park East 3.Mott Haven-Port Morris 4.Melrose South-Mott Haven North 5.Highbridge 24

25. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning New York City = 14.3% Percent Uninsured 25.0% or more 20.0% to 24.9% 15.0% to 19.9% 10.0% to 14.9% Less than 10.0% (9 neighborhoods) (20) (49) (61) * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Bronx 15.9% Queens 17.6% Staten Island 7.7% Manhattan 10.9% Brooklyn 13.8% Percent of Population with no Health Insurance Coverage by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Top Neighborhoods 1.North Corona 2.Bushwick North 3.East Elmhurst 4.Elmhurst 5.Corona 25

26. Overcrowded Households by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, 2008-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning New York City = 8.6% Overcrowded Households (more than 1 occupant per room) 20.0% or more 15.0% to 19.9% 10.0% to 14.9% 5.0% to 9.9% Less than 5.0% (7 neighborhoods) (15) (42) (60) (64) * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Bronx 11.3% Queens 8.8% Staten Island 3.4% Manhattan 5.6% Brooklyn 10.4% Top Neighborhoods 1.Williamsburg 2.North Corona 3.Sunset Park East 4.West Concourse 5.Borough Park 26

27. * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Percent Renter Households with Rent more than 35% of Household Income by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City New York City Total = 43.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census- Summary File 1; 2008-2012 American Community Survey-FactFinder Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning 2008-2012 (five year average)Change 2000 to 2008-2012 Percent Renter Households with Rent more than 35% of Household Income 55.0% or more(13 NTAs) 50.0% to 54.9%(37) 45.0% to 49.9%(41) 40.0% to 44.9%(41) Less than 40.0%(56) Change in Renter Households with Rent more than 35% of Household Income Gain of 2,000 or more) 1,000 to 1,999 500 to 999 -499 to 499 Loss of 500 or more (19 NTAs) (46) (43) (77) (3) 27

28. Population Projections

30. 2010: 8,242,624 2040: 9,025,145 468,730 501,109 2,552,911 2,840,525 2,250,002 2,412,649 1,385,108 1,579,245 1,585,873 1,691,617 Population Projections by Borough New York City, 2010 and 2040 Bronx Manhattan Queens Brooklyn Staten Island New York City Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning % Change: 9.5 6.7 14.0 7.2 11.3 6.9

31. 2010: 1,002,208 2040: 1,409,708 59,344 97,883 294,610 428,845 288,219 377,060 145,882 228,476 214,153 277,444 Projections for the Population 65 and Over by Borough New York City, 2010 and 2040 Bronx Manhattan Queens Brooklyn Staten Island New York City Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections Population Division-New York City Department of City Planning % Change: 40.7 29.6 56.6 30.8 45.6 64.9

32. Data Links DCP Population Division Web site: www.nyc.gov/population www.nyc.gov/population New York City Census FactFinder: www.nyc.gov/cff www.nyc.gov/cff Census Bureau Web site: www.census.gov