1. WAR WITH IRAN? A Geopolitical Backgrounder Dr. Zoltán Grossman Member of the Faculty (Geography & Native American Studies) The Evergreen State College, Olympia, Washington http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz

2. Iran and Iraq Ethnicity: Iran has Persian majority, Iraq has Arab majority Religion: Iran and Iraq both have Shi’a Muslim majorities (past Iraqi rulers were Sunni) Interwined histories: Shi’ism, oil, monarchies, wars, British/U.S. control, “Axis of Evil” Water + Oil + Size = Industry “I'm not sure I can tell you the difference in Iraq and Iran.” --Alan Jackson

3. Iran more geopolitically pivotal Iran “may well prove as large a threat to U.S. interests in the Gulf as Iraq has.” -- Project for the New American Century

4. Persian/Iranian Empires Crossroads of empires, conquerers, religions, ethnicities Islamic control in 637-651 Rule by succession of Shah (king) dynasties

5. Political map

6. Shi’a and Sunni regions Shi’as in dark green. The holiest Shi'ite cities of Karbala and Najaf are within Iraq; Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iran.

7. Ethnic map XxxxxxxXxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxxxxx Baluchis Arabs Azeris Kurds Persians Persians Luris Luris Bakhtiaris Turkmen Qashqai Persians

8. Persian (Farsi-speaking) core Persians51%Azeris(Turkic)24%Kurds7%Arabs3%

9. Ethnic minorities straddle boundaries Baluchis Arabs Azeris Kurds

10. Ethnic groups & energy resources XxxxxxxXxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxxxxx

11. Western Iran

12. Persia never a colony?

13. Anglo-Persian War, 1856-57 Ahvaz (Khuzestan) fell to British, 1857 Arabs lived in SW region since 642.

14. Anglo-Russian “Great Game” spheres of influence, 1907 Russian Empire BritishIndia OttomanEmpire Kuwait Afgh.

15. British take oil in Arab region, 1908 British had engineered “protectorate” status for “Arabistan” region in SW Persia, 1897 Oil discovered by British in Arabistan, 1908 Start of Anglo-Persian Oil-- the future British Petroleum (BP) British and Russians occupy Persia during World War I

16. Oil economy 10% of world reserves (2nd to Saudi Arabia) Most oil in SW, in Arab minority region of Khuzestan

17. Reza Shah, 1921 Reza Shah emphasizes pre-Islamic imperial glories, Persian core Nationalist but also modernizer, Pahlavi dynasty offends clerics Retakes control of Arabistan, renames Khuzestan, 1925 Renames Persia as Iran, 1935

18. World War II Reza Shah flirts with Nazis British and Soviets invade, force him into exile, 1941 Install son Mohammad Reza Pahlevi as Shah British reoccupy Khuzestan oil fields; Soviets occupy Azeri NW Iran

19. After World War II Mahabad Republic in Azeri/Kurdish region, 1945-46 Truman threatened nuclear weapons to force withdrawal of Soviet troops from NW Iran, 1946 Anglo-Iranian has stranglehold on Khuzestan oil fields

20. Mossadegh elected, 1951 Premier Mohammed Mossadegh, Parliament nationalizes British oil holdings, 1952 U.S. portrays nationalist leader as a Communist

21. CIA coup, 1953 CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt directs military coup, installs Shah as supreme leader in Operation Ajax Mossadegh ouster was turning point U.S. joins British in control of oil

22. Shah Reza Pahlavi West sees as bulwark vs. Communism, Arab nationalism, (later) Islamist fundamentalism Emphasized glorious past, huge palaces, kleptocracy Nuclear bombers stationed after Iraqis ousted monarchy, 1958 U.S. sold nuclear technology to Shah, who wanted a Bomb

23. Shah under fire, 1970s Persian Gulf passes from British to U.S. domination Iran-Iraq peace treaty--U.S. sells out Kurdish rebels SAVAK secret police repression Religious turn against him for secularism, ties to Israel, lavish coronation Increasing street protests, rebel attacks

24. Revolution begins, 1978 Strikes by leftist Arab oil workers in Khuzestan Tehran protesters massacred Call for return of Ayatollah Khomeini from exile in France (had also been in Iraq)

25. Shah overthrown, 1979 Shah driven into exile, seeks medical treatment in U.S., Panama Ayatollah Khomeini returns as a unifying figure for revolution

26. Revolutionary pluralism Bani Sadr’s “negative equilibrium” vs. superpowers Leftists, ethnic minorities had voice Revolution against Western cultural imperialism; Secular women wear veil as protest vs. U.S.

27. Hostage crisis, 1979-81 Students take embassy “spy den,” demand Shah’s return Carter’s helicopter/bombing raid fails to free hostages; they are released the moment Reagan is inaugurated Turning point: Crisis strengthened Iran & U.S. hardliners

28. Islamic Republic Khomeini crushes pluralism, consolidates control, using U.S & Iraqi threats as pretext Executes leftists, Kurds, Azeris, and People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI) Women’s rights restricted by religious militia Difficult for 1980s U.S. peace movement: no “good guys,” no Christian or leftist leadership

29. Carter Doctrine “Carter Doctrine” formalizes U.S. access to oil fields; threatens nuclear attack if Soviets invade Iran Start of “energy war,” Central Command, draft registration, psychological conditioning of Americans for Mideast war

30. “American vital interests in the Central Region are long-standing. With over 65% of the world’s oil reserves located in the Gulf states of the region— from which the United States imports nearly 20% of its needs; Western Europe 43%; and Japan, 68%--the international community must have free and unfettered access to the region’s resources.” --General J. H. Binford Peay III, --General J. H. Binford Peay III, Central Command (1997) Central Command (1997) Cited in Blood and Oil by Michael Klare (Metropolitan Books, 2004) U.S. Central Command

31. Iraq seized Khuzestan oil fields after Iranian Revolution, backed secessionist Arab rebels (who also occupied London embassy) Fought to bloody stalemate: Use of trenches, human wave tactics, chemical weapons. Iraqi Shi’as fought for Iraq; Iranian Arabs fought for Iran Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88 Iranians Iraqis

32. U.S. supported Iraq with intelligence, naval escorts Reagan also later supplied Hawk missiles to Iran in “Iran-Contra Scandal” (to illegally raise funds to fight Sandinista Nicaragua) Kissinger: “bleed both sides” Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88

33. U.S. naval war, 1987-88 U.S. Navy escorts reflagged Iraqi (Kuwaiti) oil tankers under Iranian missile threat U.S. battles with Iranian gunboats; attacks oil platforms “Accidentally” shot down Iranian civilian jetliner Fear of Strait of Hormuz closure; island disputes with Gulf states

34. Rafsanjani presidency, 1989-97 Neutral in Gulf War, 1991; feared both U.S. & Saddam U.S. lets Saddam slaughter Iraqi Shi’a, falsely assuming they would back Iran Neutral in war between Christian Armenia, Shi’ite Azerbaijan (ethnic over religious ideology) Rafsanjani hardline at home, but not confrontational to West Accelerated nuclear energy program

35. Khatami presidency, 1997-2005 Youth supported “moderate” President Mohammad Khatami; but faced police crackdown Some secular youth identify Islam with hardline regime Yet even anti-regime youth stand by regime on nuclear issues, standing up to West

36. Pipeline Politics In a new “Great Game, ” Caspian Basin oil & gas routes contested by: Turkey (U.S.) Afghanistan / Pakistan (U.S.) Russia Iran (most direct)

37. Bases for wars, or wars for bases? 1.Gulf War, 1991 2. Yugoslav Wars, 1995-99 3. Afghan War, 2001 4. Iraq War, 2003 “Their function may be more political than military. They send a message to everyone.” --Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, NYT 2002

38. Iraq War strategy: Encircling Iran? “The whole reason for the war is to get American troops into the region to put pressure on other governments. This is going to be the main American military base in the region” George Friedman/ Strategic Forecasting Tallil air base, Iraq

39. U.S. & Iranian strategies in Iraq Military strategy: U.S. invaded Iraq, lost 1000s of soldiers, stuck in unpopular quagmire, saw its influence (and its favored exile candidates) rejected by Iraqis. Political strategy: Iran watched its 2nd-greatest enemy eliminate its 1st enemy, advised its Iraqi allies to play along so their candidates could run in elections, then saw the Shi'ite parties come to power--all without firing a shot. Iraqi Shi’ites not wanting to emulate Iran’s theocratic rule, turn youth against religion

40. Ahmadinejad victory, 2005 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was populist mayor of Tehran Built alliance of poor with religious conservatives Bush placing Iran in “Axis of Evil” strengthened conservatives in Iran

41. The regimes of most “demonized” leaders have stayed in power longer than any others. They can blame U.S. for internal economic problems & dissent. “Search for Enemies” E “Search for Enemies” Ex-CIA official John Stockwell analysis: U.S. government creates Third World enemies to distract attention from domestic problems Castro (Cuba) Ho (N. Vietnam) Ayatollahs (Iran) Qaddafi (Libya) Noriega (Panama) Saddam (Iraq) Kims (N. Korea) 2000s: Ch á vez or Ahmadinejad?

42. Nuclear program Israel has had nuclear weapons since 1970s; Pakistan since 1998 All Iranian presidents say nuclear technology only for energy Ayatollah Ali Khameini issued fatwa vs. nuclear weapons, 2005 U.S., Israel, EU do not believe Iran; IAEA critical of Iranian program

43. Uranium Enrichment Uranium Enrichment Aug. 2005: Iran rejects EU proposal to provide enriched uranium fuel for reactors March 2006: IAEA “has not seen indications of diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons.” April 2006: Iran successfully enriches uranium to 3.5% (energy-grade) (3.5% for energy; 90%+ for weapons-grade) Nov. 2004: Iran voluntarily suspends enrichment

44. Bush could bomb underground Iranian nuclear facilities Or Israel may strike, like it bombed Iraq nuclear plant, 1981 Possible attack on nuclear program

45. Ideological preparation Threat of “Iranian nuke” deeply embedded in Hollywood Justifying use of U.S. nukes to counter Iranian nuke? Seymour Hersh exposing White House discussion of use of nuclear “bunker busters” vs. Iran

47. Staging grounds for invasion? Iraqi Shi’a leaders would not allow military assault on Iran. But U.S. can launch strikes from aircraft carriers, or Kuwait, Afghanistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan. Ex-weapons inspector Scott Ritter: U.S. building up capabilities in Azerbaijan (Iran's NW border), sponsoring PMOI rebel bombings. Pentagon does not think strikes alone will destroy Iran’s facilities, opposes nuclear option

48. Difficulties in invading Iran “Invading Iran would likely make the bloody quagmire in Iraq look like a picnic. Iran has nearly four times the territory and three times the population of Iraq. Also, Iran's terrain is much more mountainous than Iraq's and even more ideal for guerrilla warfare.” --Ivan Eland

49. xxxxxx Exploiting ethnic tensions Exploiting ethnic tensions Azeri protests, May 2006 Arab protests, April, Nov. 2005 Kurdish rebel attacks, 2006-07 Baluchi Sunni rebel attacks, 2006-07

50. Stimulating ethnic revolt? U.S. Marine intelligence teams hooking in Iran (Financial Times 2/26/06) up with ethnic rebel groups in Iran (Financial Times 2/26/06) American Enterprise Institute hosts conference, 2005 Timing of Western interest in ethnic grievances coincides with larger desire to pressure & isolate Iran. U.S. & U.K. have a long history of championing the rights of an ethnic minority against an “enemy,” then abandoning the minority when it is no longer useful.

51. Stimulating ethnic revolt? U.S. combat units are "on the ground" in Iran, marking targets for any future air attack, "working with minority groups in Iran, including the Azeris, in the north, the Baluchis, in the southeast, and the Kurds, in the northeast. The troops are studying the terrain, and giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting scouts from local tribes and shepherds,' the consultant said. One goal is to get eyes on the ground'... The broader aim, the consultant said, is to ‘encourage ethnic tensions' and undermine the regime.” "[W]e have been deeply involved with Azeris and Baluchis and Iranian Kurds in terror activities inside the country.” --Seymour Hersh, The New Yorker (1/17/05)

52. Stimulating ethnic revolt? Bush has signed Finding allocating $400 million for CIA and Special Ops destabilization of Iran, including Nuclear interlligence and currency destabilization Kidnapping Revolutionary Guards for interrogation in Iraq Killing “high value targets” Aid to Ahwazi separatists, Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK), Jundallah (Baluchi Sunni fundamantalists based in Pakistan), Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) in Iraq --Seymour Hersh, The New Yorker (7/7/08)

53. Stimulating ethnic revolt? “CIA officials are understood to be helping opposition militias among the numerous ethnic minority groups clustered in Iran's border regions. The operations are controversial because they involve dealing with movements that resort to terrorist methods in pursuit of their grievances against the Iranian regime. In the past year there has been a wave of unrest in ethnic minority border areas of Iran, with bombing and assassination campaigns against soldiers and government officials. Such incidents have been carried out by the Kurds in the west, the Azeris in the north-west, the Ahwazi Arabs in the south-west, and the Baluchis in the south-east. ….Funding for their separatist causes comes directly from the CIA's classified budget but is now ‘no great secret,’ according to one former high-ranking CIA official in Washington.” --Sunday Telegraph (London, 2/25/07)

54. Risks of stimulating ethnic revolts Azeri revolt could draw in Azerbaijan, Turkey Kurdish revolt could inspire separatists in Iraq & Turkey. But an Arab revolt could put Iran’s main oil province of Khuzestan under Western control. The prospects of a limited intervention may loom larger, simply because Bush thinks it can be a “Mission Accomplished” with less than an all-out conquest of Iran.

55. Ralph Peters

56. Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) grievances Devastated in Iran-Iraq War; Arab cities still shattered Poverty, unemployment-- few benefits from local oil “Persianization” in place names; allegedly in schools Coerced removals of farmers for development project along strategic border (Arvand Free Zone) British-Ahwazi Friendship Society rally in London

57. Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) secession? A few groups favor secession of “Al Ahwaz,” (including Khuzestan & eastern Gulf coast) Most Arab exile groups instead favor ethnic autonomy of the Arab province within a new federal state

58. Khuzestan: Iran’s Achilles Heel SW province has oil fields, a shared Arab Shi’a identity with Iraq, and flat plains bordering Iraq (cities of Ahvaz, Abadan, Khorramshahr, etc.) “The first step taken by an invading force would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province, securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcing it to depend on its limited stocks.” -- -- Beirut Daily Star

59. The “Khuzestan Gambit” Khuzestan “is the one large piece of flat Iranian terrain to the west of the Zagros Mountains. American heavy forces could swiftly occupy Khuzestan, and in doing so seize control of most of Iran's oil resources, and non-trivial portions of the country's water supply and electrical generating capacity.” --GlobalSecurity.org Are the first moves already being made? Repeat of past British colonial and Saddam strategies.

60. Basra Incident In Sept. 2005, British troops clashed with Iraqi police and Shi'ite militia in Basra (Iraq), near the border with Khuzestan. The police had arrested two British undercover commandos who possessed suspicious bomb-making materials.

61. Basra Incident British troops launched an armored raid on the jail to free their agents (fighting Iraqi police they had earlier trained). Iraqis thought it strange that British agents would be caught with insurgent-style bombs in Iraq.

62. Khuzestan Bombings Yet at the same time, bombs began going off across the Iranian border in Khuzestan. A series of June 2005 car bombings in Ahvaz (75 miles from Basra) killed 6 people. Attacks in Sept.-Oct. 2005 hurt dozens, halted oil transfers.

63. XxxxxxxXxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxxxxx In August 2005, Iran arrested a group of Arab separatists and accused them of links to British intelligence in Basra, Iraq, tying the bombings to the commando incident. Four Arabs executed in Feb. 2007 Khuzestan Bombings

64. Anglo-Iranian tension Iranian officials “point to Western collusion in the sudden spike this year in ethnic unrest in the strategic, oil- producing province of Khuzestan and describe it as proof of a shadowy war that is receiving far less coverage in the international press than events in Iraq. Since the beginning of 2005, riots and a bombing campaign timed to coincide with the June presidential elections rocked Khuzestan's major cities.” -- Daily Star of Beirut (10/17/05)

65. Tony Blair and his Foreign Secretary Jack Straw denied the charges, and accuse Iran of sending agents to stir up trouble in Basra and other Iraqi cities, by supporting Shi'ite militias attacking “Coalition” troops. Exiles accuse Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of training to quell Arab protests, and using Lebanese Hezbollah (from local training camps) against protesters. (U.S. accuses Hezbollah of training Iraqi Shi’as in Khuzestan, May 2008). Anglo-Iranian tension

66. In March 2005, Straw had met with London-based Iranian Arab exiles (Khuzestan Front leader visited White House in April 2005.) U.K. sailors captured in Khuzestan waters, released, March 2007. Ahwazi separatists assassinate Revolutionary Guard colonel, 2008

67. Arab protests in Khuzestan In April 2005, a letter allegedly from the Iranian Vice- President was read on Al-Ahwaz television (broadcast from U.S. via satellite) supposedly advocating forced Arab removal from Khuzestan & importation of Persian settlers. Though Tehran denounced the letter as a forgery, Arab youths took the streets of Ahvaz and clashed with police, with 5 killed, 400 arrested. November Eid protests left 2 Arabs dead & 200 arrested.

68. First front in a War on Iran? 1. Western propaganda that Iran plans “ethnic cleansing” of Arabs (like in Kosovo or Darfur), to gain U.S. public support for assistance to rebels or military action.

69. First front in a War on Iran? 2. U.S. & British forces protect an Arab uprising from, crackdown, and turn Khuzestan into a de facto autonomous protectorate of “Arabistan” or “Ahwaz” (Kosovo precedent) 3. West takes control of Iran’s oil-dependent economy, by holding Khuzestan as an economic “hostage,” and dictates terms to Tehran government. 4. Pentagon fantasizes that ruling clerics would be undermined and Iranian reformers would overthrow them.

70. New tensions Skirmishes between U.S. Navy and Iranian speedboats in Persian Gulf, Jan. 2008 Ahwazi exiles denounce Iranian nuclear power plant construction at Darkhovin, Feb. 2008

71. Israeli strike? Israel bombs Syrian plant as warning, Sept. 2007 Air war games over Mediterranean and Iraq, with U.S. approval, Summer 2008 Bush gives “amber light” for Israeli strike London Times / Jerusalem Post (7/13/08) Kadima split; Olmert weak Mofaz vs. Livni conflict over Iran strike Iran not reprocessing uranium for weapons; air strikes would “turn Middle East into a ball of fire” (Mohammad El Baradei, IAEA)

72. U.S. Road to War National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) asserts Iran ended A-bomb program in 2003; but Bush and Cheney dispute (“knowledge” is enough), Dec. 2007 Admiral Fallon resigns, Sec. Gates criticisms dismissed HR 362 / SR 580 (Dodd/Shelby) calls for economic sanctions on Iran, divestment of oil equipment companies (would lead to oil deindustrization) Possible naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz ??? Sanctions are popular and war unpopular, but sanctions can lead to an Act of War

73. What can backfire Destroying any chance of reform in Iran, and rallying even “moderate” Iranians around their government. Arab secession sets into motion the “Balkanization” of Iran, which would inevitably tear apart neighboring countries. Military & Revolutionary Guards could counterattack, block oil lanes, or melt into an Iraq-style insurgency. Self-fulfilling prophecy: Iran War could stimulate more reactive terrorism and nuclear weapons programs.

74. Dr. Zoltán Grossman Member of the Faculty (Geography & Native American Studies) The Evergreen State College Lab 1, 2700 Evergreen Pkwy. NW Olympia, WA 98505 USA Tel.: (360) 867-6153 E-mail: grossmaz@evergreen.edu Website: http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmazgrossmaz@evergreen.eduhttp://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz This presentation available at http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/IranWar.ppt Article in Z magazine (January 2006) at http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=67&ItemID=9073