1. European Regional Science Association 27-31 August 2008, Liverpool Special Sessions on The Impact of HEIs on Regional Economies The overall regional impact of Scottish HEIs: An illustrative CGE analysis of the impact of their “demographic challenge” Kristinn Hermannsson Katerina Lisenkova Peter McGregor Nikos Pappas Kim Swales Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde; Centre for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR), Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde

2. One major gap we are tackling in our project is the macroeconomic or system-wide impact of HEIs on the host region: especially the neglect of the supply side. HEI-disaggregated input-output (IO) analyses are a useful contribution Extremely useful databases created; results transparent But, as the best practitioners (many of whom are on our team!) recognise, these studies: Embody a restrictive view of host region’s economy (excess capacity, significant unemployment) – passive supply side Focus on the demand-side effects and are “one-shot” in nature We develop a CGE approach, but here focus simply on the demand effects implied by the “demographic challenge” facing Scottish HEIs. Introduction

3. The “demographic challenge” for HEIs Demographic changes in the UK are projected to result in a fall in the number of students Recent Universities UK report makes projections of likely numbers of students We provide a CGE analysis of likely impacts on Scottish economy of Universities UK scenarios

4. Age Participation Index

5. In 2007 71% of the first year full- time UK-domiciled undergraduates were aged 18-20 -16.9% -11.0%

6. UUK projections Two types of projections in UUK report: –Baseline projection – based on demographic factors Projected age/gender/ethnicity composition of the UK population Projected population of EU countries Projected number of non-EU students Projected conversion rate from undergraduate to postgraduate study (increasing in line with recent trends) –Three scenarios – take into account how HEIs may react to these changes

7. Projected total number of students (FTE*): UUK baseline Source: Universities UK, own calculations -11.4% -6.8% *FTE – full-time equivalent; part-time students added with coefficient 0.5

8. Projected total number of students (FTE): baselines? Source: Universities UK, own calculations Alternative baseline is proportional to the population of 18-20 year olds

9. Description of scenarios Scenario 1 Slow adaptation to change Scenario 2 Market-driven and competitive Scenario 3 Employer-driven flexible learning Participation of young people Participation of older people Employer engagement Competition (UK) Technology-based learning As now but with some switch from full-time to part-time Reduced participation in full-time but increased participation in part-time Substantial reduction in full-time, but on headcount basis participation at current level Modestly increasedSubstantially increased Modestly change, mainly through increased influence on the curriculum Increased but not necessarily primarily with publicly funded HEIs Substantially increased – employers are the primary drivers of large proportion of public funding Increased competition amongst publicly funded providers Significant expansion of the range of private providers – fierce competition for UK students Highly stratified and polarised system with only limited competition Competition (int-l) UK HEIs compete effectively despite increased competition UK HEIs compete less wellWith the exception of elite HEIs, UK HEIs compete less well. However, they engage with technology-based borderless education Some increase in e-learning, but face-to-face learning is the predominant mode Substantial increase in e- learning E-learning is the predominant mode Academic staffing As now with academic staff undertaking teaching and research Two streams: one – research and teaching in large HEIs, the other – teaching in small HEIs Flexible academic workforce. Increased movement between academia and business. Significant part of academic staff becomes self-employed, contracting work at several HEIs

10. Projected total number of students (FTE): all scenarios Source: Universities UK, own calculations

11. Two types of impact of declining number of students Loss of income by HEIs –Some sources of HEIs’ income depend on number of students –An assumption is that per student funding will stay at the 2005 level (HESA data) –Different types of funding depend on number of each type of student Loss of non-Scottish student’s expenditures –A decline in the number of non-Scottish students will lead to lower demand in other sectors

12. Sources of Scottish HEIs income Funding Council grants –Recurrent grants (Teaching) –proportional to the number of Scottish students (FTE) –Recurrent grants (Research) –Recurrent grants (other) Tuition fees & education grants & contracts –Home & EU domicile Full-time fees – proportional to the number of full-time home and EU students Part-time fees – proportional to the number of full-time home and EU students –Non-EU domicile – proportional to the number of non-EU students (FTE) Research grants & contracts; Other income

13. Effectively a regional, empirical, general equilibrium variant of the Layard, Nickell and Jackman (LNJ) model. So the supply side is crucial (and, of course, non-passive) Multisectoral CGE calibrated on 2006 Scottish Social Accounting Matrix, with HEIs as one sector: –25 sectors, cost minimisation –3 domestic transactor groups Goods markets modelled as competitive, with equilibrium relative prices determined simultaneously by demand and supply –Demands fairly conventional –Trade flows sensitive to relative prices Labour market imperfectly competitive, though unified –characterised by regional bargaining - wage curve (w, u negatively related) - LNJ variant AMOS-HEI: a CGE model of the Scottish economy

14. Second element of flexibility - population is –Fixed or Harris-Todaro (w, u positively related) - LNJ variant –When combined with wage curve the two relations tie down w, u Final element of flexibility relates to treatment of capital stocks, which are –either fixed (total and composition) –or gradually adjusted to optimal level, driven by gap of rental rates and user costs Dynamics in model are recursive: sectoral capital stocks updated each period through investment functions; population updated via the migration function Financial markets fully integrated and not modelled explicitly How does AMOS-HEI relate to IO models of HEI impacts? –Full specification of the supply side –Can therefore capture heterogeneity among regions (e.g. supply constraints?) –Relative prices (competitiveness) endogenously determined –But, if supply-side is passive, AMOS-HEI converges on comparable IO models AMOS-HEI (continued)

15. Impact of the loss of income by HEIs: baseline 20062010201520202025 UUK baseline GDP (£m)0.00010.434-15.325-62.043-73.158 Total employment ('000)0.0000.261-0.378-1.633-2.020 Unemployment (%)5.7975.7925.8065.8155.798 CPI (%change)0.0000.016-0.029-0.063-0.017 Real wage (% change)0.0000.010-0.018-0.034-0.001 HEI sector employment('000)0.0000.346-0.594-1.670-1.152

16. Impact of the loss of income by HEIs: all scenarios 200620102015202020252026 UUK baseline GDP (£m)0.00010.434-15.325-62.043-73.158-74.869 Employment ('000)0.0000.261-0.378-1.633-2.020-2.051 CPI (%change)0.0000.016-0.029-0.063-0.017-0.016 Scenario1 GDP (£m)0.00015.015-2.767-40.618-42.942-39.913 Employment ('000)0.0000.379-0.042-1.057-1.210-1.123 Unemployment (%)5.7975.7905.8045.8125.7955.793 CPI (%change)0.0000.022-0.019-0.052-0.0040.002 Real wage (% change)0.0000.013-0.013-0.0290.0040.007 HEI sector employment('000)0.0000.486-0.299-1.246-0.621-0.479 Scenario2 GDP (£m)0.0007.359-23.555-75.941-93.255-98.651 Employment ('000)0.0000.182-0.598-2.007-2.558-2.680 CPI (%change)0.0000.012-0.035-0.070-0.025-0.029 Scenario3 GDP (£m)0.000-3.808-53.704-127.030-165.986-179.044 Employment ('000)0.000-0.104-1.402-3.380-4.506-4.822 CPI (%change)0.000-0.003-0.059-0.097-0.055-0.065 Alternative baseline GDP (£m)0.0001.681-38.773-99.895-116.499-116.197 Employment ('000)0.0000.037-1.004-2.657-3.188-3.172 CPI (%change)0.0000.004-0.047-0.081-0.026-0.018

17. GDP impact of the fall in student numbers: baseline

19. GDP impact of the loss of income by HEIs : all scenarios

20. Employment impact of the fall in student numbers: baseline

21. Employment impact of the loss of income by HEIs : all scenarios

22. Sectoral impact (excluding HEI): baseline, 2006 % change

23. The impact of meeting Universities Scotland’s claim for a 15% real increase in government expenditure on HEIs. (Assuming no supply-side impacts.) (Externally funded by UK Government; internally funded through cutting other Scottish government expenditures)

24. Conclusions and future research Explore UUK scenarios in more detail, providing sensitivity analyses of their demographic and scenario projections Capture the supply-side impacts of HEIs –Need to generate new micro-econometric evidence on both skill and spillover impacts; –student and graduate migration flows, and incorporate these into the CGE Extension to other countries of the UK Then extend to close other gaps in our knowledge –disaggregation of HEIs? –interregional context –wider impacts of HEIs