1. HOW LONG CAN THE PRESENT STM JOURNAL SYSTEM CONTINUE? David Goodman Research Librarian and Biological Sciences Bibliographer Princeton University Library dgoodman@princeton.edu

2. Public Funding Agencies University Administrations Libraries Researchers Publishers Flow of Money and Work

3. Public Funding Agencies University Administrations Libraries Researchers Publishers Potential Disruptions Fiscal Disaster Funding Body Intervention Academic Administrative ChangeLibrary Rebellion Researcher choice

4. The Alternative to Journals: E-Print Archives u Inexpensive u Rapid publication u Searchable u Interoperable u Permanent redundant backup u Compatible with current publishing u Compatible with refereeing u Academically acceptable and proven to work

5. Factor for Change: User Desire for E-prints possibilities: u Exponential take-off u Linear growth u Linear growth up to a point u Constant low desire for change u No desire for change

6. Factor for Change: General Economic Conditions possibilities: u Relatively high chance of disaster u Low chance of disaster u Relatively high chance of disaster for next few years

7. Factor for Change: Desire for Change in Academic World possibilities: u Rapidly increasing u Slowly increasing u Constant u Non-existent by: u Granting agencies u University requirements u Library support providers

8. Factor for Change: Publisher Options possibilities: u Emphasize packages as at present u Emphasize packages completely u Emphasize single journals u Emphasize individual articles u Reduce prices and titles

9. Combinations of Factors User desire13 cases Economic conditions 6 cases Academic desire12 cases Publisher reaction 5 cases Total cases considered 4680 cases

10. General Results u Economic disaster forces rapid change u High user desire for change forces rapid change u Otherwise, institutional factors dominate they all converge to a small range of years u Most publisher options have little effect: one year + or - at most

11. Sample Case: Exponential E-Print Growth uE-Print u exponential growth within each field u linear growth overall u eventual sudden take-off uPublishers u self-protect with packages u price to discourage individual article access uJournals u the best few will remain

13. Exponential E-Print Growth - Year of Transition

14. Sample Case: Linear E-Print Growth uE-Print u exponential growth within each field u linear growth overall u no sudden take-off uPublishers u self-protect with packages u price to discourage individual article access uJournals u the best few will remain

16. Linear E-Print Growth - Year of Transition

17. Sample Case: Stable Publisher Strategy uE-print u exponential growth within each field u linear growth overall uPublishers u encourage per-article u limit number of journals u limit costs uJournals u all good ones will remain

19. Stable Publisher Strategy - Year of Transition

20. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

21. b.1665 d. 2008