1. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Michael Steele Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Michael Steele Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle WA

2. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Objectives: Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget Synthesize information from: ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses Oceanographic obs Terrestrial obs Satellite obs Land surface models Coupled ice-ocean models Objectives: Examine the Arctic climate system from the integrating viewpoint of its large-scale heat budget Synthesize information from: ERA-40 and NCEP reanalyses Oceanographic obs Terrestrial obs Satellite obs Land surface models Coupled ice-ocean models

3. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Some Products …(all 2007) Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic J Geophys Res, 112 Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis submitted to Geophys Res Lett Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20 th century submitted to Geophys Res Lett Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast Geophys Res Lett, 34 Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer state EOS, this week Serreze, M, A Barrett, A Slater, M Steele, J Zhang, K Trenberth (2007) The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic J Geophys Res, 112 Serreze, M, A Barrett, J Stroeve, M Holland (2007) Emerging arctic amplification as seen in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis submitted to Geophys Res Lett Steele, M, W Ermold and J Zhang (2007) Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the 20 th century submitted to Geophys Res Lett Stroeve, J, M Holland, W Meier, T Scambos, M Serreze (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast Geophys Res Lett, 34 Polyakov, I, M Steele, lots of et als (2007) Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to warmer state EOS, this week

4. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Linkages to explore SASS I: Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends Miles: climate modes’ role in warming Walker: marine warming  terrestrial ecosystem response? SASS I: Perovich: albedo & summer ocean warming Rigor: air temperature trends vs. ocean trends Miles: climate modes’ role in warming Walker: marine warming  terrestrial ecosystem response? SASS II: Zhang: ocean warming  plankton response? (modeling) Matrai: ocean warming  plankton response? (obs) SASS II: Zhang: ocean warming  plankton response? (modeling) Matrai: ocean warming  plankton response? (obs) probably others we’ve missed…

5. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA -  F A F sfc EA/tEA/t The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic (annual mean, seasonal cycle) Serreze, Barrett, Slater, Steele (2007) Atmospheric Column  E IOL /  t -  (F O – F I ) Ice/Ocean/Land Column ERA40 NCEP re-analysis ERBE Vinje obs. J. Zhang model Climatology (PHC) F TOA

6. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Net Annual Surface Heat Flux (ERA-40) Net Annual Surface Heat Flux (ERA-40) W/m 2 up down …too much? LW top too big Seasonal Energy Budget (ERA-40) Seasonal Energy Budget (ERA-40)

7. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Observed Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast Compiled by NSIDC Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos, Serreze (2007) 2007 4.13

8. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA The Emergence of Arctic Amplification The Emergence of Arctic Amplification Modeled Future SAT Serreze, Barrett, Stroeve, Holland (2007) summer winter ice thinning  winter surface warming Observed Temperature Anomalies (NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999) Observed Temperature Anomalies (NCEP Oct-Dec, rel. to 1979-1999) It’s starting to happen!

9. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA summer (Jul-Aug-Sep) Arctic Seas Ocean Surface Warming over the 20 th century World Ocean Database ’05 (in situ data) Steele, Ermold, Zhang (GRL submitted ’07) summer (JAS) Sea Surface Temp (0-10 m) Beaufort-W

10. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA SST trends & the AO AO  1965-95 diverg AtlW Ocean Ice Warming influenced by ocean & ice advection

11. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA SST trends: regional anomaly time series (f) Chukchi (a) Beaufort-E (c) Bering St (e) Kara (d) ESS+ Laptev (b) Beaufort-W SST (  C) Reynolds et al recent warming recent warming recent warming in situ satellite WOD’05 smoothed 1930 19651995 1930 19651995

12. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA July-Aug SST anomalies (rel to 1982-2007) Temperature Anomaly (  C) 20002001 2002 2005 2004 2003 2006 2007 ehh 2007: What a year! Max Anom  5°C

13. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Thank You

14. Energy Transports across 70 deg N

15. Jan 365633 Feb 295006 Mar 301168 Apr 292278 May 349785 Jun 490397 Jul 620166 Aug 725292 Sep 733829 Oct 701069 Nov 652471 Dec 366975 MJ * 10 15 Months Arctic Ocean Sensible Heat Content 1000 MJ/m 2 Annual mean 70-90 degN J M M M JSN F A J A OD Courtesy M Steele

16. The Emergence of Arctic Amplification The Signature in CCSM3 Oct-Dec Temperature Anomalies in NCEP, Relative to 1979-1999

17. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA SST trends: regional anomaly time series (f) Chukchi (a) Beaufort-E (c) Bering St (e) Kara (d) ESS+ Laptev (b) Beaufort-W SST (  C) Reynolds et al ice advection influence recent warming recent warming recent warming decadal osc? in situ satellite WOD’05 smoothed 1930 19651995 1930 19651995

18. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA SST trends & the AO AO  1930-65 AO  1965-95 cooling warming diverg converg  Ice advection influence sub- surface sub- surface PacW  Ocean advection influence AtlW

19. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Net Surface Heat Flux from ERA-40 Net Surface Heat Flux from ERA-40 Annual W/m 2 January July W/m 2 up down …too much? weak strong

20. Michael Steele Polar Science Center / APL University of Washington Oct 3, 2007 SASS Mtg, Alexandria, VA Seasonal Arctic Ocean Energy Budget (ERA-40) Seasonal Arctic Ocean Energy Budget (ERA-40) LW top too big