1. Population Aging and Sustainability of Health Care Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean 10 May 2012, San José Tim Miller Population Affairs Officer Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Contact: Tim.Miller@cepal.org

2. Entering a new era

3. OLD WORLD Child abundant societies NEW WORLD Senior abundant societies

4. OLD WORLD: All societies were child abundant in 1950. 0 - 19 20-39 40-59 60+ Largest Age Group

5. NEW WORLD: Global dominance of senior abundant societies in 2070. 0 - 19 20-39 40-59 60+ Largest Age Group

6. Entering a new era OLD WORLD Youthful Economies NEW WORLD Aged Economies Definition: An AGED ECONOMY is one in which consumption by older persons exceeds consumption by children and youth.

7. 1980: No Aged Economies in the World 2010: 23 Aged Economies OLD WORLD

8. 2040: 89 Aged Economies 2070: 155 Aged Economies NEW WORLD

9. Entering a new era OLD WORLD Declining demographic pressures on health care systems NEW WORLD Increasing demographic pressures on health care systems

10. Demographic pressures on health systems at lowest level in decades. OLD WORLDNEW WORLD

11. The Future of Health Care Systems

12. The biggest difference between health care systems in wealthy countries and those in poorer countries is how they treat older persons.

13. As countries become wealthier, growing use of health care services among older persons.

14. The Future of Health Care Systems The main cause of future fiscal problems is likely to be health care, not pensions.

15. More fiscal pressure from health care than pensions in Latin America and in European Union. 1.5 3.43.2 2.3

16. The Future of Health Care Systems Entering a new era: Aged Health Care Systems Enormous Transformation to Confront the Growing Epidemic of Cancer, Heart Disease, Diabetes, etc.

17. Two Recommendations for Monitoring and Projections 1.Comprehensive Monitoring Efforts: Effects of population aging will be widespread. Not just health care, but all parts of economy. Not just government, but all institutions. Not just a few countries, but almost all. One such monitoring project is the National Transfer Account project led in the region by CELADE with funding support from Canada’s IDRC. Currently 10 countries in the region are participating with 31 countries throughout the world.

18. Two Recommendations for Monitoring and Projections 2. Projections: Governments should implement long-run projections of their budgets to understand and adapt to population aging.

19. Thanks! Tim Miller Population Affairs Officer Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe Contact: Tim.Miller@cepal.org