1. Participatory Modelling of Wellbeing Tradeoffs in Coastal Kenya Tradeoffs, optimising and thinking outside the triangle
Tim Daw, Sara Coulthard, William Cheung, Kate Brown, Tim McClanahan, Diego Galafassi, Caroline Abunge, Johnstone Omukoto Omuhaya, Garry Peterson, Carlos Ruiz, Amini Tengeza, Lydiah Munyi

2. Ecosystem Services and Well-being
‘Unnatural Capital’:
Labour
Technology
‘WB Context’:
Basic needs & aspirations
‘Multipliers’
Markets
Values
Natural Capital
Human Wellbeing
Goods
Access & Distribution
Potential
Benefits
Millennium Assessment definition is about WB
Relationship is poorly understood and contingent on many factors
Aggregated analysis can’t say much about WB

3. Trade-offs in Ecosystem Services (& Fisheries)
Common focus on win-win
Alignment between conservation, and wellbeing
Trade-offs often not considered
Wins & losses for particular groups may be hidden

4. The case study
5 km
Mombasa
National
Marine Park

5. (workshop activities)
Aim: to test a framework to identify trade-offs between ES and wellbeing of different stakeholders
Participatory
processes
(workshop activities)
-Social-ecological
system models
-Scenarios
Kenyan
Case
study
Ecological Modeling
Wellbeing
Research
(focus groups)

6. Ecological modelling Ecopath network model
Ecological Modeling
Two biophysical models of the reef/fishery
- Ecopath with Ecosim
- Stella model of reef dynamics
Specific Questions
Ecosystem service delivery
Fish
Environmental quality
Effects of fishing by different gears
Ecopath network model

7. Tradeoffs in the fishery (Ecopath optimisations)
Economic
Profits
Ecological
status
Food
production
Beach
Seine
Other
Gears
But what are the wellbeing implications of these trade-offs?

8. Things that are important for living well
Wellbeing research
Wellbeing
research
Focus on fisheries stakeholders
Multi-gear users (hand line, spear gun, nets, traps),
Beach seine fishermen
Beach seine captains
Women fishmongers
Male fish traders
What is wellbeing for these people?
How easy is it to be well?
Things that are important for living well
Money
Good job
‘A developmental mind’ (knowledge, education)
Savings
Property
Donor/ start capital
Decision-making capacity
Planning
Good fishing gears
Health
Good neighbours

9. Implications for different markets
Different stakeholders rely on different types of fish.
‘Mama karangas’ buy small fish (mostly caught by beach seine) to process and sell to local residents
A better ecological condition would result in larger fish which would enter higher value markets e.g. hotels.

10. Participatory Processes
Secondary stakeholders (government, NGOs, representatives)
Conceptual model’ of the broader system
Trends, drivers, possible future scenarios & surprises

11. System modelling Fuzzy logic system model implemented in Excel
Iteration with stakeholders who provided improvements
Can demonstrate the toy model.

12. Trade-offs as described by ‘Toy Model’
Optimise for 1 group or objective
Try to balance for 2 groups, or objectives
Is there a tradeoff? What shape?
So can see tradeoffs, can identify blocking stakeholders who’s WB is affected for system to move forward. Can identify vulnerable groups and limits.

13. What the model can explore
Alternative jobs
in Economy
Balancing/ optimising
Beach Seine Effort
What about changing the system?
What about human agency, responses and feedback in the system?
What about other stakeholders, other variables?
These figures illustrate the nature of TOs.

14. Scenarios
Stakeholder conceptual model
Drivers exercise
Secondary data

15. Explore Scenarios with primary and secondary stakeholders
Likelihood
Implications for wellbeing
Winners and losers
Responses
Finally policy options considering all the above...

16. Policy Responses to the Scenarios, considering trade-offs
Example group discussion on Scenario C: Growth
Action: Enforce regulations
Losers: Beach seine fishers and women fishmongers
Facilitate alternative livelihoods
Women fishmongers are marginalised and hard to integrate into alternatives
Response: legislation to promote access to fish for women fishmongers, or fish prices
Resultant trade-off: Fishermen and women fishmongers
Most of our scenarios went beyond the model parameters and relationships. E.g. Aquaculture, offshore fisheries.

17. Conclusions
Trade-offs and modelling lens to understand hard choices within the system
Explicitly consider trade-offs
A wellbeing angle emphasises trade offs between different groups
Identify most vulnerable to change
Identify groups likely to block change
Scenarios allow thinking outside the model
additional variables and stakeholders
consideration of how to ‘transform’ the system Thinking outside the triangle...

18. Many thanks
Ecosystem Services and Poverty Allevaition (ESPA programme)
Wildlife Conservation Society
KMFRI, Kenyan Fisheries Department, Kenya Wildlife Services
All workshop and focus group participants