1. 1 Egypt GHG Mitigation Potential Eng. Maher Aziz Energy & Environment Consultant (E&E) General Director of Environmental Studies, EEHC TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004

2. 2 1.Introduction The contribution of major sectors to the overall GHG emissions of Egypt serves as a first indicator on which sectors should be primarily targeted for identifying GHG mitigation projects. The methodology used to develop and report the inventory was based on the IPCC guidelines published in 1995 and revised in 1996. The inventory was estimated for the main three GHGs, namely CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O. The data for other GHGs such as NO x, CO and non- methane VOCs is not available. TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

3. 3 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 2. GHG Emission Inventory by Sector The total GHG emissions of Egypt in 1990 were 116,708 Gg of CO 2 equivalent while the total GHG sinks in the land–use and forestry sector recorded 9,900 Gg of CO 2 equivalent. CO 2 is the main Greenhouse Gas in Egypt. It represents about 72% of the total GHG emissions in 1990. The second important Greenhouse Gas is CH 4, which recorded 19% of the total GHG emissions and lastly N 2 O with 9%. TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

4. 4 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 2. GHG Emissions Inventory by Sector (Contd.) Summary of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories – 1990/91 Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks (Gg) CO 2 EqN2ON2OCH 4 CO 2 106,708341,02974,559 Net National Emissions (emissions Removals) 82,7281220674,682 1.All Energy (Fuel Combustion + Fugitive Emissions) 10,276199,7772. Industrial Processes ----3. Solvent and Other Product Use 17,91321543-4. Agriculture -9,900-- 5. Land Use Change & Forestry 5,691-271-6. Waste ----7. Other TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

5. 5 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 2. GHG Emissions Inventory by Sector (Contd.) The Figure shows the percentage share of each Sector (and all energy sub-sectors) related to the total GHG emissions in 1990. The main emitters of GHG in Egypt are fuel combustion in the energy (22%) and industry (21%) sectors, Transport (18%) and Agriculture (15%). The energy-related emissions (“All energy”) are responsible for 71% of the total GHG emissions. Total = 106,708 Gg TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX Sector Percentage Share of Net GHG Emissions, 1990/91 CO2 Equivalent % Energy Industry (ISIC) Transport Small combustion Fugitive emissions Industrial processes Agriculture Waste

6. 6 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 3. Emissions from “ All Energy ” Sector (fuel combustion and fugitive emissions) The main energy source of Egypt are oil, natural gas, and to a lesser extent hydropower (mainly generated from the high dam in Aswan). Coal, non-commercial fuels e.g. agriculture residues, firewood, dried livestock manure etc.), wind and solar energies play only a minor role. The electricity generation sector was the major consumer of fossil fuels in Egypt in 1990 (34%) followed by industry (27%), transport (23%), residential & commercial (13%), petroleum (2%) and finally agriculture (1%). Dependency on petroleum as the primary energy source makes energy production the highest contributor to GHG emissions in Egypt. TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

7. 7 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 4. Emission from Industrial Processes GHG Emissions from Industrial Processes Sector 1990/91, Gg CO 2 EqN2ON2OCH 4 CO 2 Industry 1482.51-7.81318.711. Iron and Steel 390.94 -- 2. Non-ferrous Metal * Aluminum Production 174.13 266.60.86 1.45143.683. Inorganic Chemicals * Ammonia Production * Nitric Acid Production Not Available- -4. Organic Chemicals * Adipic Acid production 7867.3 55.9 -- 7867.3 55.9 5. Non-metallic Mineral Products * Cement Production * Lime Production 0.042 - 0.02 -6. Others * Carbon Black * Methanol ~ 102380.869.39776.6Total TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

8. 8 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 5. Emissions from the Agriculture Sector Livestock Types and Population in 1990/91 PoultrySwine Mule & Ass HorseCamelGoatSheepBuffalo Cattle (Dairy & Non-Dairy) Animal 421021,624101974,4464,1472,7922,993 Population (1000 head) Percentage Emissions of Methane by Source, Agriculture Sector 1990 TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX % Methane emissions Rice cultivationEnteric fermentation Manure management Burned residues

9. 9 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 6. Emissions from Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) No natural forests exist in Egypt. In 1990 the total number of planted trees was about 60 million forest trees. The natural growth of non-forest trees existing along the Nile river and in cultivated lands represented a net sink with an amount of -9,900Gg CO 2 equivalent. There is no wood burnt as a fuel in Egypt except agriculture residues and dung. Recently more attention is given to establish tree plantations using treated wastewater. TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

10. 10 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 7. Emissions from Waste Sector Percentage Share of CH 4 Emissions, Waste Sector, 1990/91 % CH 4 emissions TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

11. 11 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 8. Emissions from Biomass CO 2 emissions from biomass (agriculture residues, fruit trees, and dung) are estimated as 9,543 Gg. This figure is excluded from the total emissions of the energy sector according to the IPCC guidelines. The CH 4 and N 2 O emissions are included in the calculations for GHG emissions of the “All Energy” Sector. 9.Emissions from International Bunkers CO2 emissions from international bunkers (aviation and marine) recorded in 1990/91 were 7,184 Gg and they are excluded from the total GHG emissions according to the IPCC guidelines. TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

12. 12 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 10. Projection of GHG Emissions GHG Projection for all Sector (in 1000 Gg of CO 2 eq) Total CO 2 eq Land-Use & Forestry WasteAgriculture Industrial Processes Energy 106.71-9.9005.6917.9110.2882.731990/1991 151.46NA6.2622.6713.58110.231996/1997 188.73NA6.7827.5817.14140.022001/2002 235.56NA7.3433.5521.62177.852006/2007 294.46NA7.9440.8227.29225.912011/2012 368.61NA8.6049.6634.43286.962016/2017 Not Applicable Not Available 1.6%4%4.76%4.90% Growth Rate TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX The Table shows calculation of GHG emissions using estimated growth rate for each sector.

13. 13 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 11. GHG Reduction / Avoidance Potential in Different Sectors Summary of Proposed CDM Project Types Total Carbon Saved / Sequestrated Per Year (Ton C) Replication Potential Until 2010 Unit of Calculation (Specific Ton C Reduction) Project Type Renewable Energy 401,380600 MW 40,138 Ton C/60 MW 1.Electricity generation by wind farms 161,820600 MW 80,910 Ton C/300 MW 2. Electricity generation by Integrated Solar Thermal System 48,00060,000 Feddan 80 Ton C / 100 Feddan 3. Other solar energy applications (Solar PV pumping) 16,9002 x 10 6 Tons 1690 Ton C / 200,000 Tons Dried 4. Solar food-dehydration TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX

14. 14 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 Summary of Proposed CDM Project Types (Contd.) Total Carbon Saved / Sequestrated Per Year (Ton C) Replication Potential Until 2010 Unit of Calculation (Specific Ton C Reduction) Project Type Transportation 44,375438 km 21,073 Ton C/208 km 5. Railway electrification 28,94855 km 11,579 Ton C/22 km 6. Underground mass transit system 32,000150 x 10 6 ton Ton C / Ton cargo 7. Waterway transportation 20,640800 Bus Engines 2,580 Ton C / 100 CNG-Engine 8. Fuel Switching to Compressed Natural Gas TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX 11. GHG Reduction / Avoidance Potential in Different Sectors (Contd.)

15. 15 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 Summary of Proposed CDM Project Types (Contd.) Total Carbon Saved / Sequestrated Per Year (Ton C) Replication Potential Until 2010 Unit of Calculation (Specific Ton C Reduction) Project Type Efficiency: Cogeneration 73,49611,340 (TOE)Ton C / TOE9. Food and beverage 544,41484,000 (TOE)Ton C / TOE10. Textile 306,23347,250 (TOE)Ton C / TOE11. Metals 152,43623,520 (TOE)Ton C / TOE12. Hotels 274,92942,420 (TOE)Ton C / TOE13. Building 353,86954,600 (TOE)Ton C / TOE14. Chemicals Efficiency: Waste heat recovery 13,6493,066 (TOE)Ton C / TOE15. Food and beverage 58,24013,083 (TOE)Ton C / TOE16. Textile 38,5158,652 (TOE)Ton C / TOE17. Metals 101,33622,764 (TOE)Ton C / TOE18. Chemicals TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX 11. GHG Reduction / Avoidance Potential in Different Sectors (Contd.)

16. 16 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 Summary of Proposed CDM Project Types (Contd.) Total Carbon Saved / Sequestrated Per Year (Ton C) Replication Potential Until 2010 Unit of Calculation (Specific Ton C Reduction) Project Type Energy : Control systems and energy saving equipment 73,0858,547 (TOE)Ton C / TOE19. Food and beverage 55,30912,747 (TOE)Ton C / TOE20. Textile 8,2011,890 (TOE)Ton C / TOE21. Metals 6,5601,512 (TOE)Ton C / TOE22. Hotels 103,14523,772 (TOE)Ton C / TOE23. Chemicals 1,093252 (TOE)Ton C / TOE24. Buildings Fuel Switching to Natural Gas in Industry 97,608101,700 (TOE)Ton C / TOE25. Food Waste Management 201,600840,000 Ton Waste 30,000 Ton C/ 125,000 Ton waste processed 26. Methane recovery from Municipal solid waste landfills 37,33610 modules 37,336 Ton C / module 27. Organic food waste management TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX 11. GHG Reduction / Avoidance Potential in Different Sectors (Contd.)

17. 17 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX CO 2 emission reduction due to fuel switching to natural gas in all economic sectors 2003/2004 Total CO2 reduction 2003/04 = 21 Million Tons Total CO2 reduction (81/82-2003/04) = 176 Million Tons

18. 18 DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 Summary of Proposed CDM Project Types (Contd.) Total Carbon Saved / Sequestrated Per Year (Ton C) Replication Potential Until 2010 Unit of Calculation (Specific Ton C Reduction) Project Type Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry 240,0003,100 ha 39,000 tC on 500 ha 28. Casuarinas and sissoo plantations around new cities 240,0004,800 ha 5,000 tC on 100 ha 29. Acacia stenophylla plantations around new cities 967,90012,000 ha 5,628 tC on 70 ha 30. Planting along irrigation and drainage canals 101,87010,000 ha 10,200 tC on 1000 ha 31. Coastal sand dune fixation 1,123,6508,350 ha 9,429 tC on 70 ha 32.Planting of roads and highways TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX 11. GHG Reduction / Avoidance Potential in Different Sectors (Contd.)

19. 19 End of Presentation DJERBA, Tunisia, 22-24 September, 2004 TIMS/EEAA 2 nd Phase – DJERBA FORUM - CD4CDM UNEP RISØ-APEX