1. Regional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi
Training Workshop - Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, April 2013
Sardar Sarfaraz
Regional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi

2. Brief Introduction of Pakistan Meteorological Department
Secretary: Ministry of Defence
Director General
Chief Admin Officer
Chief Meteorologist
Chief Meteorologist
Chief Meteorologist
Chief Meteorologist
Chief Meteorologist
Forecasting
Flood
Drought - Agromet
Seismic
Research
6 - DIRECTORS
2 - DIRECTORS
3 - DIRECTORS
2 - DIRECTORS
3 - DIRECTORS
20 - Dy. Directors
3 - Dy. Directors
3 - Dy. Directors
3 - Dy. Directors
3 - Dy. Directors

4. Services and Facilities, PMD provides
Public weather service
Aviation Meteorology
Hydrology/flood forecast
Agrometeorology
Drought
Seismology and Tsunami early warning
Marine & cyclone warning

5. PMD’s Infrastructure for Monitoring the Weather
Satellite Ground Stations
HRPT
1- Islamabad
2- Quetta
FY-2 E/D
1- Islamabad
2. Karachi
PMD has 4 Satellite ground stations:
2 HRPT systems installed at Islamabad and Quetta.
2 Chinese ground satellite stations, working at Islamabad and Karachi.

6. Radar’s Network 10-cm Doppler Radars QPM Radar
1- Lahore
2- Mangla
QPM Radar
1- Sialkot
5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars
1- Islamabad
2- D.I.Khan
3- Rahim Yar Khan
4- Karachi
PMD has 7 Radars, in operation at different parts of Pakistan, which cover almost 80% area of Pakistan.
6 new Radars provision is under progress which are expected to complete within a year or so.

7. PMD- HRM Forecast Products
Numerical Weather
Products
Rain
Temps
Winds
Based on DATA, TECHNIQUE and SKILL, the Numerical Weather products like Precipitation, Temperatures and Winds are generated twice a day with a validity of next 1 – 7 Days. All such products are available on PMD website,

8. PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet Message
Under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) PMD prepares and issues the marine safety message for MetArea-IX.
Message passed daily at 0700UTC via telnet to LES Perth, Australia for onward transmission to ships via INMARSAT.
Met Area-IX map
Of Indian Ocean fleet forecast areas the PMD is responsible for the areas B00, B30, B25 and B20.
Karachi coastal radio (ASK, NAVETAX), covering the Arabian Sea north of 20oN, Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, broadcasts it at 518KHz at 0630 and 1830 UTC.

9. PMD – fleet forecast
MORNING FLEET FORECAST GENERAL INFERENCE, DATED ----, ---- Weather: Fair with hazy morning B00, B30, B25 and B20. AREA FORECAST VALID FOR 12 HOURS COMMENCING -- / 0700 U.T.C
Area
Weather
Surface Wind
State of Sea
Swell
Period
Visibility
B00
Fair with misty morning
NW’ly
08-10 Kts
Slight m
2-3 Sec
* Good may be poor in mist.
B30
Fair with misty morning.
05-07 Kts
Smooth
0.1-.5m Do
B25
Fair with hazy morning
E/SE’ly
03-05 Kts north 24N & SW 5-7Kts B/W 21-24N. m
* Good may be moderate in haze.
B20
SE’ly
05-10 Kts
Smooth/slight
2 Sec

10. PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet message for MetArea-IXTO
INMARSAT COASTAL EARTH STATION (CES) +
PERTH AUSTRALIA.
SECURITE
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR METAREA-IX VALID FOR
24 HOURS COMMENCING 0700UTC DATED BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT.
PART -I: Morning satellite imagery shows intense convective clouds over the East Arabian Sea.
PART - II: NO ALERT MESSAGE
PART –III: FORECASTS:
SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND NE/SW KTS LOCALLY 15 KTS EAST OF 65E AND N/NW KTS WEST OF 65E.
II. WEATHER FAIR WITH MISTY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN MIST.
IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND E/SE KTS NORTH OF 24N, SW KTS SOUTH OF 24N.
II. WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH.
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND N KTS GUST 20KTS EAST OF 60E BEC.
II WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING EAST OF 65E.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.
SUB AREA NO GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND E/NE KTS GUST 15 KTS WEST OF 50E.
II WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.
IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.

11. Forecast and Warning Services
Forecast and warning services’ delivery for emergency preparedness and response:
Current warnings system,
Challenges,
Pressures and
Concerns

12. PMD – Severe Weather Warning System
PMD’s Current Warning System:

13. Potential Extreme Weather Events Pakistan is vulnerable to
Snow-melt Flooding
Extreme Heat in May/June
Heavy Rains/River Flooding
Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding
Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Urban Flooding
Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Cyclones/Coastal Flooding
Tropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon)
Water Crises/Droughts
Dry Spell (Deficient Monsoon/Winter rain)

14. Information Flow
National Weather Forecasting Office, Islamabad and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi
NDMA/PDMAs/DDMAs
District/local Govts
CBOs
Media/print & electronic
NGOs PN
High Govt officials
KPT
N(P/D)DMA- National/Provincial/District Disaster Management Authority,
KPT – Karachi Port Trust, PN – Pakistan Navy, CBOs- Community Based Organizations

15. Message Dissemination
SMS messenger
National Mititation Agencies
Fax to National Agencies
Forecaster
Provincials Mititation Agencies
Fax to Provincial Authorities
Fax to Media
Print and Electronic Media
Data Dissemination
Facsimile

16. Meteorological Advisories
Meteorological watch (7 – 10 days earlier)
Issued to give a synopsis of the actual (real time) existing weather situation around Pakistan
Meteorological alert (5 – 7 days earlier)
Issued to make the authorities and public informed of the developing weather viz likely to affect any area of Pakistan
Meteorological advisory (3 – 5 days earlier)
Issued when developing weather is quiet certain to approach Pakistan areas and the Govt authorities are alerted.
Meteorological warning
Issued when there is a certainty of violent weather occurrence over Pakistan areas.

17. Distribution of Rainfall
Fairly Widespread- Covering almost 100% Area
Widespread- Covering nearly 75% Area
Scattered- Covering nearly 50% Area
Isolated- Covering less than 50% Area
Few- Covering less than 25% Area

18. Probability of rainfall occurrence and intensity
Probability Of Occurrence
Terminology
<25%
Could Occur
26-50%
May Occur
51-75%
Would Occur
76-100%
Will Occur
Rainfall Intensity terms
Quantity (mm)
Very heavy
89 or more
Heavy
Rather heavy
22.4 – 44.4
Moderate
9.7 – 22.3
Light rain
Very light rain
2.5 – 4.5
Little rain
0.3 – 2.4

19. Weather Advisories - August, 2011
Date: August 03, 2011
Time: 1600 PST
Press Release
Monsoon Rains Predicted in Upper Parts of the Country
Met Office predicted another spell of monsoon rains in upper parts of the country from Thursday that may produce scattered Rains/Thundershowers during next 3-4 days. Later on this weather system is likely to spread to other parts of the country.
According to Met Office, scattered Rain/Thundershower is expected in Kashmir, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Peshawar, Malakand, Hazara, and Kohat divisions during next 2-3 days. While weather is likely to remain hot and humid in rest of the country during the period.
After wards more monsoon currents are likely to penetrate in parts of the country from Saturday that would produce scattered Rain/Thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir from Saturday to Tuesday.
Spokesman

20. Weather Advisory (recent one)

21. PMD – Cyclone Warning System
10 AWSs installed along Sindh-Makran coast
Other than AWS four coastal surface observing stations, Karachi, Ormara, Pasni and Gwadar also work round-the-clock

22. PMD – Cyclone Warning System
PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi is responsible for the preparation and issuance of tropical cyclone warnings in Pakistan.
Tracking of the tropical cyclones
Done with the help of
Conventional surface and upper-air observations from inland stations and ship observations.
Model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centres.
The High-resolution Regional Model (HRM) implemented at PMD.
5cm Weather surveillance radar installed at Karachi.
Meteorological satellites’ output and data.
AWSs installed along Sindh and Makran coast.
SODAR – the vertical wind profiler- with RASS installed at Karachi.
RadioSonde ground station installed at Karachi.

23. PMD – Cyclone Warning System
Cyclone warning centre does
spot on any cyclonic disturbance in the Arabian Sea by close and careful analysis of synoptic weather maps and satellite imagery
assess its potential of conversion into a cyclone
issue the pre-warning advisory 7 days earlier to cyclone formation (say, when a low/depression forms at around Lat 10N near west Indian coast)
issue “Tropical Cyclone Warning” containing cyclone current location (Lat/Long), past 3/6hr movement, CEP, maximum sustained winds, intensity and likely track with 3-4 days lead time
warning of cyclone also contains the risk of “disaster / damages due to windstorm, torrential rains & storm surge which might result in inundation/ coastal flooding, uprooting of trees, demolition of electric installations, failure of infrastructure, tearing away of Kutcha houses and collapse of buildings especially loosely structured”
observe closely and monitor every hour /3hr it’s central estimated Pressure (CEP), winds, lower & upper-air anticyclone/ steering factor and
track it with careful watch and issue update/ warning every 3/6-hrs accordingly.

24. PMD – Cyclone Warning System (cyclone detection at surface wx map)
Surface weather maps depicting the Low, depression and Cyclone. For tracking of cyclone this synoptic situation is corroborated with upper-air analysis, satellite imageries and information from RSMC, Delhi cyclone bulletin.

25. Cyclone Terminologies used
Effects during Landfall
Corresponding Wind Speed
Pressure (hpa)
Disturbance type
Gusty winds and damages detaching fruit from the trees
22 – 27 Kts
>=996
Depression
Negligible damages to houses, trees, some crops and caravan.
28 – 33 Kts
Deep Depression
Minor house damage, significant damage to signboards, trees and small crafts.
34 – 47 Kts
Cyclonic Storm
Some roof and structural damage, destruction of some caravans and power failure
48 – 63 Kts
Severe Cyclonic Storm
Significant structural damage, caravans blown away & dangerous air born debris
64 – 119 Kts
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
Widespread destructions, uprooting trees
>= 120 Kts
<=929
Super Cyclonic Storm

26. PMD – Cyclone Warning System: A specific case of “PHET”

27. Cyclone warning system - PHET (contd.)

28. Cyclone Warning System-PHET (contd.)

29. Weather Services for MOUNTAINEERING

30. Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System
Challenges, Pressures and Concerns:
Challenges:
First and foremost is the forecast accuracy and area-specificity and precision of warning.
Translation of message (warning) severity into grass-root public level.
Making people 100% realize of the actual gravity of looming danger.
Local people language, social customs and traditions sometimes pose a challenge too.
Met terminologies particularly getting across the message down to the village-level people.
Lack of proper resources in meeting the challenge.
………..

31. Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)
Pressures:
Pressure from within…………..is your forecast/ warning (specially the evacuation warning) going to be right/wrong leading to shatter the public confidence?
Pressure from media to get “unscheduled” updates/latest just to make it a breaking news and lead the competitors.
………..

32. Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)
Concerns:
Lack of resources (human - adequately trained or not, infrastructure and work environment etc.).
Capacity building in NMHSs.
Concerns = challenges + pressures
……….

33. Accessibility of Weather Advisories
PMD wx warning centres- contacts’ details
Flood Forecasting Division ,
National Weather Forecasting Centre ,
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
, ,
Tsunami Warning Centre

34. Cyclone Annimation

35. Thank You