1. Targets in Swedish Tree Improvement of Scots pine and Norway spruce
Dag Lindgren at
Adaptive Traits Needed for Breeding Zones Delineation
Madrid, February 25-26, 2008

2. Zones seldom static
I suggest lineation among zones should seldom be regarded as fixed, but change over the time and for the purpose. Adaptation is to a point and a moment, not over a permanent area.
There are seldom sharp borders.
In Sweden temperature and latitude most important.
Large edafic differences is more choice of species than tree breeding.
A most important adaptation is to global warming, I come to that
I’ll show a few Swedish ”zones”.

4. Tree Breeding
Swedish long term tree breeding is structured in subpopulations, each with 50 tested founders.
The populations are targeted based on heat sum and light climate (altitude and latitude).
Figures show the targets of 24 pine (left) and 22 spruce (right) subpopulations

5. Current Swedish seed orchard target areas for new seed orchards, (15 per species)
Spruce
Pine

6. Seed orchard targets for producing seed orchards

7. One target for planning and establishment; Later, when crop is available, a recommendation; Actual use may still be something else, but little exact statistics…

8. A second round seed orchard may now look like this
Västerhus seed orchard
Photo: Dag Lindgren

9. Recommended area for using the seed orchard
     
                                                                                                        
Recommended area for using the seed orchard
Västerhus (T10)
Latitude for plus tree origin 63°30'
Category: Tested
Location:
Latitude 63,8 N
Elevation 15 m
Established 1991

10. Global warming
We have a global warming – how shold tree breeders react?

11. Swedish breeding does prepare for an uncertain future in a general way!!!!
The breeding population targets are somewhat wider spaced than corresponds to forest area or plant use, thus breeding effort goes towards sea level and timber limit to prepare for an uncertain future!
Forest trees are plastic by Nature and likely to be able to stand some change…
As materials are tested over a range of environments they will be more plastic and stable than Evolution made them. Evolution knows only now and here….. This is an advantage tree breeders have over evolution! Sweden aims for a still larger spreading of the breeding materials in testing from now than 2006.

12. Temperature is rising in the World and Sweden

13. I became convinced 2007…
Since the UN report early 2007 I consider it a fact. It will be warmer, and the temperature will not cool down to pre-2006 within a century!
We must react in some way – not just be prepared for an unspecifiec change, but react to the fact it will be warmer!

14. What temperature change?
Target near the time future plantations = 2015 (The years following plantation are most critical).
Avoid too large change
Few scenarios predict less than 2 degrees rise in a century
Standard temperature is for
Our experience on transfers mainly based on before 1990 events.
Thus a change from sometime slightly before 1990 to sometime slightly after 2015, could be half a degree.
Make it simple!

15. How to mimic temperature change?
Just reduce the elevation!
Temperature in Swedish vegetation period rises somewhat more than one degree when elevation is reduced 100 m!
Thus, reduce elevation 50 m!

16. Dag’s recipe tree breeding response to global warming
Use materials as the plantation site had 50 m lower elevation.
Long term breeding could act accordingly. Target and test plantations for Swedish breeding populations 50 m higher up.