1. Australia’s Trade Agreements with ASEAN John Ravenhill Presentation to Canadian International Council Workshop on “Power Shifts and Vibrant Economies” Ottawa, 25 November 2014

3. AANZFTA Significance Largest plurilateral agreement Aus signed outside WTO Largest FTA Aus has negotiated First time Aus jointly negotiated with another country For ASEAN, the most comprehensive of its “Plus One” agreements

4. AANZFTA Provisions (1) Merchandise Trade: Bound vast majority ASEAN tariffs to 2005 applied rates (significantly below WTO bindings) Tariff elimination on 90 – 100 % tariff lines over time (e.g., sensitive products in Malaysia not until 2017 that reduced to 5%; for Laos, removal not until 2023). Aus. retains tariffs on some textiles until 2020. NZ government estimates by 2015, 75% of its exports will enter ASEAN duty free. Regional accumulation for satisfying rules of origin Safeguard if imports “cause or threaten to cause serious injury”

5. AANZFTA Provisions (2) Services “Modest”: standstill on existing levels of protection. Some WTO Plus commitments on professional services, education, financial services and telecommunications Framework for future negotiations

6. AANZFTA Provisions (3) Investment transparency provisions cover measures such as minimum standards of procedural transparency; rights of review of administrative decisions Investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms created

7. AANZFTA Provisions (4) Intellectual Property Largely reiterates obligations under TRIPs Agreement

8. AANZFTA Provisions (5) Economic Cooperation Australia commits $20 million over five year period for technical assistance and capacity building to enable developing ASEAN economies to implement FTA

9. Has AANZFTA Made a Difference? In aggregate economic welfare, a priori: – Tariffs already low – Australia already had bilateral agreements with Singapore and Thailand; subsequently concluded with Malaysia; negotiating with Indonesia. – Long phase-in for sensitive products – Agreement relatively weak on services, etc. – Effects likely to be swamped by other factors.

10. Value of Australia Dollar (in US dollars)

11. Australia’s Principal Exports to ASEAN ($A m) 1.Educational Services$3283 2.Crude Petroleum$3193 3.Wheat$2251 4.Gold$2106 5.Aluminium$987

12. ASEAN Exports to Australia Petroleum (40%) Motor Vehicles (10%)

13. 2010201120122013 Aus X Merchandise to ASEAN2177726,7792569125022 ASEAN Share of Aus X Merchandise9.49.910.29.4 Aus X Services to ASEAN77948,52084438932 ASEAN Share of Aus X Services15.41716.516.2 Aus Merchandise M from ASEAN4073241,6444543945405 ASEAN share Aus Merchandise M18.517.217.418.8 Aus Services M from ASEAN983211,3291195213207 ASEAN share Aus Services M17.618.9

15. AANZFTA: A Balance Sheet ASEAN is an FTA not a customs union ASEAN Secretariat not empowered to negotiate In effect, 10 bilateral negotiations, 10 bilateral treaties Potentially can gain more, economically, from bilaterals with the most important ASEAN economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam But…

16. The importance of the symbolic dimension Recognition of ASEAN centrality in Asia-Pacific regionalism Comprehensive, ongoing engagement with ASEAN as a regional organization Opens door for Australian participation in RCEP