1. Advancements to the Operational HWRF Modeling System at EMC Vijay Tallapragada Hurricane Team Lead Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS Camp Springs, MD 20746.

2. Overview of the Operational HWRF HWRF Atmosphere  Movable, two-way nested vortex following grid  9km inner domian and 27km outer domain), 42 vertical layers  Advanced physics from GFDL/GFS  Advanced vortex initialization with GSI/3DVAR HWRF Ocean  Coupled to Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Atlantic Basin  Feature based initialization of loop current and warm/cold core rings, cold wake specification during spin-up phase  Operational HWRF products  Numerical guidance on 6-hrly hurricane track and intensity for as many as five storms (both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific)  High-resolution swaths (hourly, 10 th of a degree) for wind and precipitation along the projected storm path  Simulated GOES synthetic satellite imagery (IR, VIS and WV) and radar reflectivity  Four years into operations, since 2007

3. HWRF Atlantic Track Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times compared to GFS and GFDL) HWRF Atlantic Intensity Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times) Negative bias for HWRF Atlantic Intensity Forecasts Performance of the Operational HWRF for 2010 ATL hurricane season Rapid growth of intensity errors 3

4. HWRF E-Pac Track Forecast Errors (better than GFS at all times, worse than GFDL except at 120 hr) HWRF E-Pac Intensity Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times) Negative bias for HWRF E-Pac Intensity Forecasts Performance of the Operational HWRF for 2010 EPAC hurricane season Rapid growth of intensity errors 4

5. Model Upgrades (Atmosphere)Model Upgrades (Atmosphere) –Upgrade dynamical core to NMM community version V3.2 (EMC-DTC Collaboration) –New GFS Deep Convection, Improved surface physics, radiation and microphysics parameterizations, and new FY2011 GSI/GFS IC/BC Vortex initialization upgradesVortex initialization upgrades –Improved storm size correction based on radius of 34 kt winds or ROCI and dynamical mass- wind consistency of the initial vortex (EMC- HRD collaboration) –Modification of synthetic storm and its application in the initialization (vortex cycling) –Upgrade HWRF GSI to V2.5 (community code) Ocean UpgradesOcean Upgrades –Expanded POM Eastern Atlantic Domain and improved ocean initialization –Coupling to HYCOM Ocean Model* –*Withdrawn from 2011 implementation plans, will be tested in parallel Operational HWRF product enhancementsOperational HWRF product enhancements –Satellite angle corrections for simulated GOES WV and IR imagery, additional simulated microwave products –New enhanced HWRF website for product display and navigation –High-frequency output (3 hourly) and additional derived variables for diagnostics (EMC-NHC- CIRA Collaboration) Planned FY2011 Upgrades Improved storm size correction based on R34/ROCI (Supported by DTC)

6. HR20HR30*HR21 1 H20JHRDIHR25/HR28H211 V3.2 Baseline (POM) V3.2 Baseline (HYCOM) GFS deep convectionNew GFS data Updated vortex initialization GFS deep convection + modifies surface physics Final 2011 package HWRFV3.2 Include all 2010 upgrades Couple V3.2 (HR20) to HYCOM Uses GFS deep convection scheme implemented in July 2010 Use new 2011 GFS data for initial and boundary conditions Use two parameters to modify storm size, use model consistent pressure and no composite storm for cycle Enthalpy exchange coefficient is the same as drag coefficient over V=40m/sec All combinations of 2011 implementation Test cases: All 2008, 2009, 2010 at both AL and EP All ATL 2008/2009/2010 * All 2008, 2009, 2010 at both AL and EP * All 2010 cases All 2008, 2009, 2010 at both AL and EP * All 2008, 2009, 2010 at both AL and EP All 2010 cases Nov. 1, 2010Jan. 31, 2011 Jan. 15, 2011Jan. 31, 2011Feb. 28, 2011 Mar. 15, 2011 HWRF T&E plan for 2011 implementation Suggested priority cases: ATL: Fay(33), Ike(51) (2008), Bill(34), Erika(10) (2009), Alex(23), Earl(41), Tomas(35) (2010): total 227 runs; EPAC: Jimena(24), Linda(19) (2009), Celia(37) (2010): total:80 runs All test cases: ~700 runs *If shows positive results, testing will continue for remaining storms of ATL and EPAC from 2009/2010 seasons. *Major landfalling storms from 2008 season (Fay, Hanna, Gustav and Ike) are included in this extended test plan. 1 use higher frequency physics calls for stability issue T&E for final 2011 configuration (combined upgrades) Potential upgrades are tested for ~700 cases for each config. Final configuration with combined upgrades are chosen in concert with NHC. Joint testing of physics/ocean upgrades with GFDL Final T&E to be completed by March 15 th. *Withdrawn from 2011 implementation

7. Reduction of model spin-up/spin-down FY2011 HWRF Pre-Implementation Test Results

8. Neutral impact on track and intensity errors Increased negative bias 3-season HWRF-HYCOM testing Investigate the cause of negative bias/increased SST cooling and address SST drift issues Improved RTOFS DA and ocean model physics Extended diagnostics to evaluate the coupled system Need to develop a unified coupled system for both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins (Global HyCOM) to take full advantage

9. Ongoing Model development & collaborative efforts (FY2011) Further advancements to the HWRF modeling system (EMC & HRD) –third nest capability, advanced diagnostic capability (diapost), idealized simulations –Planned Demo during 2011 hurricane season (HFIP Stream 1.5) –Multiple moving nests/improved model dynamics/improved physics suitable for high resolution Code management and community support (EMC, DTC) –Setup HWRFV3.2+ and provide support to the community through DTC –Development of R2O/O2R infrastructure and testing facility at DTC Data assimilation and vortex initialization (EMC, ESRL, OU, AOML) –Real-time test of the P3 TDR data flow from aircraft to NCO/TOC/AOC and assimilation using advanced GSI. –Improved vortex initialization (model consistent 3-D balanced vortex) –Ensemble data assimilation - hybrid EnKF (ESRL, OU, AOML) –Planned Demo during 2011 hurricane season (HFIP Stream 2) 27 km 9 km 3 km HWRF Hybrid DA

10. HWRF Physics (URI, GFDL, ESRL,HRD) –Surface fluxes, sea spray and wave coupling –Physics for high-resolution (convection, micro physics, PBL, LSM ) HWRF Diagnostics (HFIP, EMC, NHC, FSU, CIRA, HRD, UMBC/UMD) –Identifying forecast errors from different components of model physics and dynamics –Hurricane model diagnostics, evaluation and verification –Develop a common and comprehensive diagnostics framework and tools to integrate model output with available observations for verification –Enhanced real-time product display and navigation HWRF Ensembles –Large Scale Flow Perturbations; – Initial Storm Structure Perturbations; – Physics-Based Perturbations High-Resolution HWRF and other parallels –Real-time demo of triple nested (27/9/3) HWRF (HFIP Stream 1.5) –Real-time demo of high-resolution 9:3 HWRF (HFIP Stream 2) –Real-time demo of Doppler Radar DA experiments –Real-time demo of NOAH LSM Coupled HWRF

11. Mapping HWRF development tasks to HFIP efforts and Agency Priorities

12. Advancing the HWRF System FY2011 & Beyond. 2011201220132014*2015* Resolution/ Infrastructure Triple nested HWRF (27/9/3 km) Increased vertical resolution, higher model top, upgrades to WRF infrastructure, NEMS/ESMF/NMM-B, community R2O efforts (HFIP) Physics Deep Convection, Surface Physics Horizontal diffusion, Shallow convection, Microphysics, Radiation, Surface Physics, Coupling to Waves and Land Surface, Physics for high-resolution DA/ Vortex Initialization Storm size correction, dynamic mass-wind consistenty Inner core DA (Doppler Radar, satellite), improved mass- wind balance Hybrid-EnKF DA, advanced vortex relocation procedure, improved GSI Ocean HYCOM Coupling Improved ocean data assimilation, physics and resolution, unified coupled system for ATL & EPAC Waves One-way Wave CouplingTwo-way wave coupling, multi-grid surf zone physics, effects of sea spray Diagnostics and Product Development HWRF Ensembles, Coupling to Hydrological/ Surge/ Inundation models, diagnostics, product development Ongoing Work2011 upgradesPlanned developments *Potential Computer upgrade HWRFV3.2+

13. Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge- Inundation Coupled Models High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model* Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer WAVEWATCH III* Spectral wave model Land and coastal waters NCEP/ Environmental Modeling Center Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land runoff fluxes wave fluxes wave spectra winds air temp. SST currents elevations currents 3D salinities temperatures other fluxes Surge* Inundation* radiative fluxes HWRF SYSTEM NMM V2.0 Hurricane atmosphere Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for Atlantic Region GFDL Slab Model NOAH LSM* *Future developments Upgrade to HWRF V3.2+ in FY2011 FY2012 Upgrade to HYCOM Ocean Model

14. Thanks for your attention Questions? Real-time and pre-implementation T&E HWRF products: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/index.html Acknowledgements: HWRF team at EMC EMC and HFIP Management Collaborations with NHC, DTC, HRD, GFDL, URI, CIRA and other HFIP partners