1. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBALISATION, GOVERNANCE Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ tfleisch@vki.hu GLOBALISATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT EADI ExCo Conference Budapest, 3 April, 2008

2. 4 Sustainability: definitions 4 The three pillars? 4 External and internal conditions of sustainability 4 The Bruntland-definition and its spatial extension 4 Globalisation and governance 4 The frame of the IPCC scenarios (global vs. regional, profit-driven vs. multidimensional worlds) 4 The four main scenarios and the fitting governance models Sustainable development, globalisation, governance

3. Usual sustainability approach: three equal pillars 4 The „three potatoes” Weak sustainability: the sum of the (environmental, social, economical) capital should not be decreased 4 It would mean that we considered the pillars as if one could substitute the other ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY ECONOMY

4. 4 The „three potatoes” in systemic order 4 Strong sustainability: the environmental constraints are to be respected in itself 4 We can have effect on the ‘economy’ or the ‘society’. There are external and internal conditions of the sustainability of these latter systems. The three sustainability pillars in systemic order ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY ECONOMY

5. External and internal conditions of sustainability 4 External conditions of sustainability: (1) the input should not extend the rate of regeneration of sources; (2) the output should not extend the absorption capacity of nature; (+ the use of non-renewables running out by the rate of their substitutability with renewables). (Herman Daly) 4 Internal (system-operational) conditions of sustainability: the system have to be sensitive on external conditions, its operation should respect the constraints, and there should exist self-regulating internal subsystems to promote that kind of operation. 4 The fulfilment of the internal conditions of sustainability demand renewing sectorial expertness (that is not ‘environmental’ expertness) S E

6. There are also internal driving forces of unsustainable operation 4 Existing sectorial subsystems also have reinforcing loops, but it is not the external sustainability constrains that control them. 4 The task to change the existing sectorial systems is dual: - to analyse processes and decouple feedback loops that stabilise actual unsustainable operation; (sometimes institutional or mental structures), - to construct those system operations, that are able to stabilise a sustainable operation.

7. Spatial dimension of sustainability Besides temporal relations of sustainability, we also have to underline the spatial interconnections 4 UN Bruntland report (Our Common Future 1987) definition of sustainable development “meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 4 The general sustainability approach focus on the time dimension of sustainability; taking care on the environmental conditions of the future generations (inter-generational solidarity) 4 Also important to speak about the spatial conditions of sustainability as spatial solidarity and spatial interdependence - or intra-generational solidarity and spatial self-defence 4 Spatial extension – intra-generational solidarity / defence „development, that meet the needs of those living here without compromising the ability of those living elsewhere to meet their own needs”

8. Spatial dimension of sustainability Besides temporal relations of sustainability, we also have to underline the spatial interconnections 4 Inter-generational connection is a one-way relation: our responsibility for future generations, - they can’t do anything for us... 4 Intra-generational relation is a two-ways relation: the activity of others can also effect our circumstances and possibilities. We have to count on their solidarity, but this is not enough, we must also do for defending our environment. Sustaining our activity in a changing environment besides the solidarity we need also a kind of self-defence.

9. Spatial dimension of sustainability Besides temporal relations of sustainability, we also have to underline the spatial interconnections 4 The key concept: „space of places” and „space of flows” ( Castells, Manuel 1996 The Rise of the Network Society - The Information Age ). Space of places is our physical environment that has meaning and importance for us, with its order, culture, rules, and internal structures. Space of flows is the field of force: the effects arriving from outside. This latter is not a continuous space, but space of individual effects. 4 Sustainability is also a fight for control over space out of control over time. “Space of places must retain its autonomy and its meaning independently from the evolution and dynamics of the space of flows” (Castells)

10. Spatial dimension of sustainability Besides temporal relations of sustainability, we also have to underline the spatial interconnections 4 Castells do not want to exclude external impacts and do not deny the possibility of internal changes, just underlines that too rapid and too sudden external effects not serve, but rather disintegrate internal relations and structures. - defence is needed against.

11. What do the network can do? Provision, accessibility, transit, by-passing 4 Above terms can be translated to economic and transport relations using terms as provision, (connections of the ‘space of places’) and. accessibility, through traffic and by-passing. (trajectories of the ‘space of flows’) Different network relations relative to a region Source: After Plogmann (1980), with own additions

12. Spatial dimension of sustainability 4 The internal network helps forming the internal structure of the place. 4 The external elements can be determined by our structure, - or by else, not fitting to our place

13. Spatial dimension of sustainability 4 The internal network helps forming the internal structure of the place. 4 The external elements can be determined by our structure, - or by else, not fitting to our place

14. Spatial dimension of sustainability 4 The internal network helps forming the internal structure of the place. 4 The external elements can be determined by our structure, - or by else, not fitting to our place

15. The key messages of the first part 4 Sustainability 4 First statement: environmental, social and economic issues are not of equal importance within sustainable approach, but the two laters are subordinated to the environmental constraints. 4 Second statement: there are external conditions of sustainability (touches the resource use and the pollutions) and also are there internal conditions: a system have to be able to react on feedbacks arriving from the environment and change its operation by that signals. 4 Third statement: sustainability is a temporal and a spatial issue in the same time. Internal networks can serve the internal structure.

16. 4 IPPC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4 2007 December: AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report) 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) 4 „Four different narrative storylines were developed to describe consistently the relationships between emission driving forces and their evolution and add context for the scenario quantification. Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments”. Globalisation and governance: IPCC scenarios

17. IPCC four basic storylines or scenario families

18. 4 „The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B).” IPCC scenarios A1

19. 4 „The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self- reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.” IPCC scenarios A2

20. 4 „The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.” IPCC scenarios B1

21. 4 „The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.” IPCC scenarios B2

22. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2

23. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 Local, fragmented, regional world Global, converged, connected world

24. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 Economic priority, efficiency, market based, competition Environment, equity, participative decisions, co-operation Local, fragmented, regional world Global, converged, connected world

25. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global

26. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development

27. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development B1 ‘global co-operation’ social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU]

28. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development B1 ‘global co-operation’ social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU] A2 ‘regional market’ protectionist, anti-global system of efficient local markets, based on limited range TNCs rather than states good local connections

29. 4 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) IPCC scenarios A B 1 2 marketco-operation regional global A1 ‘global market’ no state intervention, global competition, capital concentration, TNCs, polarised world, technology development B1 ‘global co-operation’ social and environmental factors are important, global equity, global redistribution, world government, centralised lead of environment oriented and technical development [WEU] A2 ‘regional market’ protectionist, anti-global system of efficient local markets, based on limited range TNCs rather than states good local connections B2 ‘regional co-operation’ intra-regional redistribution, equity and environment-friendly development directed by regional institutions, Harmony with SD principles: regional production, -trade, -employment; regional institutions and -governance.

30. 4 The pro-sustainability driving forces need good internal connections within the places 4 The ‘B’ scenarios dispose of more pro-sustainability values, and present a multi-dimensional world 4 B1 ‘global co-operation’ scenario shows a kind of „world- wide union” approach for a global, bureaucratic, centrally governed co-operation – somewhat contradicting to certain values of sustainability 4 B2 ‘regional co-operation’ scenario is a regionally organised world with strong internal connections within the single unites and secondary connections between those unites. This form of governance seems to fit best to sustainability principles, while more moderated in globalisation Key findings

31. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBALISATION, GOVERNANCE Tamás Fleischer Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/ GLOBALISATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT EADI ExCo Conference Budapest, 3 April, 2008 THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION !