1. ISE525: Generating Random Variables

2. Sources of randomness in a computer? Methods for generating random numbers: – Time of day (Seconds since midnight) – 10438901, 98714982747, 87819374327498,1237477,657418, – Gamma ray counters – Rand Tables – CEFT generator Closed Eye Finger Typing

3. Pseudo Random Numbers Pseudo random numbers: – Generated algorithmically. – Can be replicated with original parameters.

4. LCGs A linear congruential generator (LCG) represents one of the oldest and best-known pseudorandom number generator algorithms. The generator is defined by the recurrence relation: – X n+1 = (a X n + c) modulo m where X n is the sequence of pseudorandom values, and The period of a general LCG is at most m, and for some choices of a much less than that. The LCG will have a full iff: – (a) andc are are relatively prime, – a-1 is divisible by all prime factors of m – a – 1 is a multiple of 4 if m is a multiple of 4.

5. LCGs continued While LCGs are capable of producing decent pseudo random numbers, they are extremely sensitive to the choice of the coefficients c, m, and a. Historically, poor choices had led to ineffective implementations of LCGs. A particularly illustrative example of this is RANDU which was widely used in the early 1970s and resulted in many results that are currently in doubt because of the use of this poor LCG.

6. Multiply With Carry Generator Simple to implement. In its most common form, a lag-r MWC generator requires a base b, a multiplier a, and a set of r+1 random seed (starting) values, consisting of r residues of b i.e. {x 0, x 1, x 2,..., x r−1 }, and an initial carry c r−1 < a.

7. Mersenne Twisters Mersenne primes: 2 43,112,609 − 1 Mersenne twisters: – It has a period of 2 19937 − 1 – It has a very high order of dimensional equidistribution. – It passes numerous tests for statistical randomness. Diehard tests

8. Diehard Tests Tests for random number generators: – Birthday spacings: The spacings between the points should be asymptotically Poisson distributed.

9. DieHard Tests Overlapping permutations: Analyze sequences of five consecutive random numbers. The 5! possible orderings should occur with statistically equal probability. Parking lot test: Randomly place unit circles in a 100 x 100 square. If the circle overlaps an existing one, try again. After 12,000 tries, the number of successfully "parked" circles should follow a certain normal distribution.

10. Random Parking Problem In 1958, a Hungarian mathematician, Alfréd Rényi, presented an interesting problem: "We place at random on the interval (0, x ) unit intervals not having points in common. What is the expected number of intervals we can thus place on (0, x )?". By assuming the unit interval a car on the road, the problem is often called "random car parking problem". Rényi (1958) solved this problem analytically and has obtained the solution Rényi, A. (1958) On a one-dimensional problem concerning random space-filling: Publications of Mathematical Institute of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 3, 109-127.

11. DieHard Tests Runs test: Generate a long sequence of random floats on [0,1). Count ascending and descending runs. The counts should follow a certain distribution. Overlapping sums test: Generate a long sequence of random floats on [0,1). Add sequences of 100 consecutive floats. The sums should be normally distributed with characteristic mean and sigma.

12. DieHard Tests Minimum distance test: Randomly place 8,000 points in a 10,000 x 10,000 square, then find the minimum distance between the pairs. The square of this distance should be exponentially distributed with a certain mean. Random spheres test: Randomly choose 4,000 points in a cube of edge 1,000. Center a sphere on each point, whose radius is the minimum distance to another point. The smallest sphere's volume should be exponentially distributed with a certain mean.

13. DieHard Tests – The squeeze test: Multiply 2 31 by random floats on [0,1) until you reach 1. Repeat this 100,000 times. The number of floats needed to reach 1 should follow a certain distribution. – Monkey tests: Treat sequences of some number of bits as "words". Count the overlapping words in a stream. The number of "words" that don't appear should follow a known distribution.

14. Multiply and Carry RNG

15. Approaches for RN generation Inverse transform Composition Convolution Acceptance-rejection Special properties

16. Inverse transform methods Suppose X is continuous with cumulative distribution function (CDF) F(x) = P(X <= x) for all real numbers x that is strictly increasing over all x. Step 2 involves solving the equation F(X) = U for X; the solution is written X = F – 1(U), i.e., we must invert the CDF F Inverting F might be easy (exponential), or difficult (normal) in which case numerical methods might be necessary (and worthwhile—can be made “exact” up to machine accuracy) Algorithm: – 1. Generate U ~ U(0, 1) (random-number generator) – 2. Find X such that F(X) = U and return this value X

17. Inverse Transform Method Uniform [a,b]

18. ITM Exponential distribution:

19. ITM (Weibull)

21. ITM (Discrete cases) Algorithm: 1. Generate U ~ U(0,1) (random-number generator) 2. Find the smallest positive integer I such that U <= F(x I ) 3. Return X = x I

22. ITM (Discrete case)

24. Simulation of a deck of cards

25. Composition method for generating random variables This applies when the distribution function F from which the RN is desired can be expressed as a convex combination of other distribution functions, F 1, F 2, F 3 etc. Specifically, we assume for all x, F(x) can be written as: This also works if :

26. Composition In general, the composition algorithm is: – Generate a positive random integer J such that P(J=j) = p_j for j = 1,2,… Return X with distribution function F j Example: the double-exponential (or Laplace) distribution has the density f(x) = 0.5 e |x| for all x > 0.

27. Laplace distribution

28. Composition We can express the density as: Where I A denotes the indicator function of the set A, defined by: So, the algorithm for generating laplacian functions is: – First, generate U 1 and U 2 as IID U(0,1). If U 1 <.5, return X = ln(U 2 ), else return X = -ln(U 2 )

29. Example using Excel

30. Example 8.4 For 0<a<1, the right trapeziodal distribution has the density:

31. Convolutions If X = Y 1 + Y 2 + Y 3 + Y 4 + Y 5 … Use the following algorithm for generating X: – Generate Y 1, Y 2, Y 1, …, Y m IID with distribution function G. – Return X = Y 1 + Y 2 + …+ Y m Example: – Erlang: the m-Erlang random variable X with mean can be defined as the sum of m IID Random variables with a common mean of

32. Acceptance-Rejection Specify a function t that majorizes the density function f, i.e. Now, However, is a density function.

33. Acceptance Rejection The algorithm for generating random variables using acceptance rejection is: – Generate Y having the density r. – Generate U ~ U(0,1) independent of Y – If U <= f(Y)/t(Y), return X=Y; otherwise try again. Example: Consider the beta(4,3) distribution on the unit interval:

34. Inverse Transform Method ?

35. Acceptance Rejection So, we first generate Y~U(0,1). f(Y) = 60*Y^3(1-Y)^2/2.0736 If U < f(Y), return Y, else reject Y and regenerate

36. Acceptance Rejection continued The acceptance rejection is used mostly for generating bounded random variables – although if the variable is not bounded, it can still be used. The choice of the majorizing function is critical for the efficiency of the method. The majorizing function can be composed of segments of several functions – piecewise linear for instance.

37. Acceptance Rejection continued Adding a minorizing function

38. Pros and cons ?

39. Special Properties If Y ~N(0,1), Y 2 has a distribution. If Z 1, Z 2 … Z m ~ then Y=Z 1 + Z 2 + … + Z m ~ We exploit the special relationships between distributions to generate random variables.

40. Generating continuous RVs Uniform: Exponential: M-Erlang: Gamma

41. Generating Normal Variates Normal: N(m,s 2 ) can be obtained from N(0,1 ). – Box and Muller method: Generate U1 and U2 X1 = sqrt(-2 ln U1) cos(2 PI U2) X2 = sqrt(-2 ln U2) sin( 2 PI U2) What if an LCG is used for U1 and U2 ?

42. Generating Normal Variates Generate U1 and U2. V i = 2U i -1. W=V 1 2 +V 2 2. If W > 1, go back to step 1, else let X 1 = V 1 *Y 1, X 2 = V 2 *Y 2 X 1 and X 2 are N(0,1) Excel comparison:

43. Bezier Distributions Beziers are spline curves that fit arbitrary distributions, given information about percentiles. They can also be constructed to match moments of a given distribution.

44. Bezier curves Given points P 1 and P 2, a linear Bézier curve is simply a linear bezier curve is the straight line between the two points: A cubic bezier is

45. Generating Bezier Variates

46. Triangular Distributions 1 20 1

49. Special Discrete Distributions Arbitrary Discrete Distribution: – Generate U ~U(0,1) – Return the nonnegative integer X = 1, satisfying:

51. Geometric distribution Number of failures before a success.

52. Generating Poisson RVs algorithm Poisson Random Number (Knuth): init: Let L ← e −λ, k ← 0 and p ← 1. do: k ← k + 1. Generate uniform random number u in [0,1] and let p ← p × u. while p ≥ L. return k − 1.

53. Example of Poisson Distribution Generation

54. Generating Binomial RVs If Y i is geometrically distributed with parameter p, then the smallest integer x for which is binomially distributed with parameters (p,n).

55. Random Processes Markov Chains Semi-Markov Chains Renewal Processes Martingales

56. Properties of Markov Chains

57. Generating random transition matrices

58. Example: