1. 1 Incorporating climate change scenarios into freshwater conservation planning Eren Turak Department of Environment and Climate Change NSW, Australia

2. 2  Modelling persistence of terrestrial biodiversity  Incorporating climate change  A freshwater approach  Multi-attribute river types as surrogate features  Modelling persistence of terrestrial biodiversity  Incorporating climate change  A freshwater approach  Multi-attribute river types as surrogate features

3. 3 Species & community distributions Pressures & threats Hypothetical changes in land-use or management Whole-landscape modelling of biodiversity persistence Best-available knowledge of ecological processes Conservation assessment Best-available spatial data A approach to conservation planning for terrestrial biodiversity Simon Ferrier May 2007

4. 4 Species & community distributions Hypothetical changes in land-use or management Whole-landscape modelling of biodiversity persistence Best-available knowledge of ecological processes Conservation assessment Species & community distributions Pressures & threats time Best-available projections with climate change Accommodating projected climate-change impacts: Simon Ferrier May 2007

5. 5 Species-area relationships Conservation status of each type Compositional overlap Biological condition Geomorphic Recovery potential Modelling persistence of riverine biodiversity Land management decisions Spatially explicit Landuse scenarios Catchment disturbance index Nutrient & sediment export index Priority maps of the region for a given action Evaluation of alternative actions at a given location Sea level rise Climate change Rainfall patterns Temperature increases Predicted (local) biodiversity Ecologica l river types Biodiversity benefits (regional)

6. 6 Abiotic river types Fish river types River edge macroinvertebrate River types Riffle zone Macroinvertebrate River types Reference river reaches A multi-attribute ecological river typology Leptoceridae, Calamoceratidae, Gyrinidae Gerridae Leptophlebiidae, Retropinna semoni Gobiomorphus coxii Anguilla reinhardtii Melanotaenia duboulayi Small, steep, high cover of boulder and bedrock, low salinity, high concentrations of oxidised nitrogen Eustheniidae Calocidae Scirtidae Helicopsychidae Ptilodactylidae 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 1 1 5 Abiotic Fish Edge Riffle Multi attribute river type

7. 7 Identification keys Distance from source Elevation Latitude Slope Mean annual rainfall River types Abiotic-fish-edge-riffle Bunnair Ck A2F3E7R1 Shoalhaven A1F1E2R2 Wooli wooli R A5F4E4Paroo R A6F5E5 Billabong Ck A4F5E5 Snowy R A3F2E3R3

8. 8  Types can be mapped for all rivers across the State  Relationships among river types described  Misclassification rates for reference sites known  Types can be mapped for all rivers across the State  Relationships among river types described  Misclassification rates for reference sites known Ordination plots of river type averages for the four attributes A: abiotic E: macroinvertebrate edge R: Macroinvertebrate riffle F: Fish

9. 9 Land Use Scenario (grid) Remaining Biodiversity Conservation Status Biol. Cond. Statistics Biol. Cond. Grids Outputs Catchment Biodiversity Current Catchment Disturbance Index Recovery Potential (grid) Future Biological Condition (grid) Current Biological Condition (grid) Fish Abiotic Edge macroinvertebrates Riffle macroinvertebrates Multiattribute types Ecological river types Scenario Catchment Disturbance Index A decision support tool for catchment management authorities

10. 10  Climate change, landuse links  River type boundaries - The likely effect of temperature increases and sea level rises: species and community modelling - Effect of rainfall scenarios: flow modelling  Pressures - Flow modelling - Temperature effects on geomorphological processes Building climate change response algorithms (for completion by end 2010)