Presentation on theme: "Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap"— Presentation transcript:
1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United statesLouis Chauvel Sciences-Po ParisSite :
2 Plan Facts concerning the French generational fluctuations Intensions : Answering this paradox : economic growth, but no sign of it in my “generational neighbourhood” Understanding how Welfare regimes can influence the distribution of resources between birth cohortsPlanFacts concerning the French generational fluctuationsA theory of generational dynamicsWelfare models and generational dynamicsThe case of France as a typical corporatist modelOther trajectories in Europe
3 Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%) QUESTION : are there long term consequences of collective difficulties when entering labor market ?Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%)45%40%35%30%25%Male20%Female15%Cohorte 195910%5%Cohorte 19530%1970198019902000Source : Enquêtes emploi INSEE , archives Lasmas
4 Source: INSEE family budgets “Consumption” relative poverty rates by adult age groups (family budget ) in FranceSource: INSEE family budgetsNote: the definition of “consumption” poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent consumption adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2030405060708019852000
5 Source : Enquêtes Emploi 1982-2000, INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet 4. The newer generations know no more improvement, when compared to their own parentsIntergenerational upward and downward mobility rate (male age y.o.)Source : Enquêtes Emploi , INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet6050down40immobile30up2010Sources : Enquêtes Emploi – INSEE (origine : LASMAS IDL – CNRS)198019851990199520002005
6 5. A major risk of dyssocialization Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1965 and 1995) (per )Source : Chauvel, 1997a²
7 Primary socialization Secondary socialization Socialization versus individual and collective historyLife cycle and socializationPrimary and secondary socialization (Berger et Luckmann)The « transitionnal socialization »Long term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect »History and the constitution of a Generationengeist and of a GenerationenlagePrimary socializationUntill mandatory school (?)Transitionnal socializationSecondary socialization« adulthood »16-18 y.o.25-30 y.o.
8 Interpreting the French case: Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states: France = “corporatist-conservative” « welfare mix », stabilization of social relations Protection of insiders (protected male workers) against outsidersIn case of economic brake : « Insiderisation » of insiders, already in the stable labor force and « outsiderisation » of new entrantsIn France, young people can wait … decades Increasing poverty rates for young people, stable intracohort inequalities (after taxes and welfare reallocations)Are other intergenerational compromise possible ?
9 Three modalities Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states : Conservative model» (Continental Europe) : Preservation of (old) social equilibria, with social insurance excluding unemployedLiberal model : (Anglo-saxon world) : Market as a central institution, residual welfare state against market failures HL0 : more intracohort inequalities HL1 : less intercohort inequality (competition between generations)« Social-democrat » Model (Nordic Europe) : Citizenship and broad participation to discussions and bargaining around social reforms between social groups (gender, generations, etc.) for a long-term development HD0 : less intracohort inequalities HD1 : residual intercohort inequalities (compromise between generations)
10 International variations : Three great models of evolution :Continental and Mediterranean Europe (+ Japon) : protection of insiders against outsiders (new generations are facing major difficulties)United States and anglo-saxon countries : the new generations, in the average, face difficulties, but higher inequalities imply a divergence between lowest and highest income groups and social classesNorthern Europe : Closer to a universalistic egalitarian equilibrium between age groups, genders and social classes (lower intra- and inter- cohort inequalities)Emerging countries :in fast growth countries (China, Taiwan ?, India, Central-Easter Europe) : new opportunities for newer cohorts, and higher inter- and intra-cohort inequalities to the benefit to young university graduatesin stagnation countries (Argentina, Northern Africa) : intergenerational inequalities and generational destabilization (inflation of diplomas and declining return to education)