1. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing 5/3/2015© 2008 Keith A. Pray 1 Class 12 Risks Keith A. Pray Instructor socialimps.keithpray.net

2. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 2 5/3/2015 Overview 1. Students 2. Risks, Failures, etc. 3. NEXT CLASS: Evaluation Forms (to start 10 minutes before class ends)

3. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Group Project Groups presenting Monday 1. Live Free Or Die Hard 2. A.I. 3. Lawnmower Man 4. Bicentennialman © 2008 Keith A. Pray 3 5/3/2015

4. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Group Project If you are not presenting Monday:  For each movie being presented Monday prepare three questions about the movie and group’s work as depicted on their respective websites.  Questions will be handed in  Questions will be typed and have your name  Questions will pertain to the topics covered in this class © 2008 Keith A. Pray 4 5/3/2015

5. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Cyber warfare Andrew Keating  The concept of cyber warfare has been a possibility for years, but only recently has it become a reality  Why?  As more nations become reliant upon computer systems for their infrastructures, cyber warfare becomes a much more serious threat.  Cyber warfare is cheap!  “You could fund an entire cyber warfare campaign for the cost of replacing a tank tread” – Bill Woodcock, research director of Packet Clearing House  Infrastructures are vulnerable, and knowledge of how to exploit computing systems is widespread © 2008 Keith A. Pray 5 5/3/2015

6. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Cyberwar Cont’d: The South Ossetia War (Russia v. Georgia) During the South Ossetia War in the summer of 2008, Georgia’s government suffered large-scale distributed denial of service attacks, affecting a wide range of Georgian servers, which included the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and news organizations While bombs and gunfire flooded the streets of Georgia, Russian packets flooded their servers © 2008 Keith A. Pray 6 5/3/2015 Andrew Keating

7. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Possibilities ([Un]Ethical?) Gaining control over news servers and posting inaccurate information to mislead people Any machine which is visible on the Internet is at risk, could disrupt a country’s entire infrastructure Take down hospitals, power grid, police/fire Damage to civilians could be done accidentally What role will cyber warfare play in the wars of the future? © 2008 Keith A. Pray 7 5/3/2015 Andrew Keating

8. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing CIGNA Healthcare Brendan Dean CIGNA is the 4 th largest health insurer in the country. Had to upgrade its IT infrastructure, some of which dated to the 1980’s. New upgrade would not just move services to new systems but also added a lot of additional services. Projected to cost $1 billion.

9. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing How They Did It Brendan Dean Outsourced some of the architecture work. Software engineers warned of problems. Laid off call center employees before launch. CIO continued with launch despite warnings. 3.5 millions members were transferred from the legacy systems to the new system at one time. New call center employees were not trained enough.

10. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing Results Brendan Dean Customers could not get help over the phone. Some customers benefits did not get transferred. Internal  Restructuring of IT leadership  CIGNA now has better testing and checks in place External  Lost 6% of its health care membership  Contributed to 40% stock drop

11. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 11 5/3/2015 Risk What is it? Chance of it happening?  Random, Historical statistics, Analysis Give examples of risks with computer systems

12. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 12 5/3/2015 Predicting Risk What are the factors? Enough data to be statistically significant? Can you reduce or increase your own risk?  Chance  Severity

13. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 13 5/3/2015 Reliability Of Statistics Are other factors controlled? Is enough time covered? Is all data reported?

14. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 14 5/3/2015 Cost-Benefit Analysis How much does it cost? What do I get for this cost?

15. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 15 5/3/2015 Risk-Benefit Analysis What could go wrong? How likely is it? How costly are the consequences?

16. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 16 5/3/2015 Limitations to Risk-Benefit Analysis Hard to quantify probabilities Hard to quantify costs Who bears the costs? Are the potential benefits worth it?

17. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 17 5/3/2015 Some Measures Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) Mean Time To Repair (MTTR)

18. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 18 5/3/2015 Relying Too Much Limits of modeling reality Limits of precision Limits of algorithms Limits of interpretation

19. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 19 5/3/2015 Value of Intuition Are results reasonable?

20. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 20 5/3/2015 Producing Good Software Good specifications Good usability Good design Robustness Good implementation Testing

21. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing © 2008 Keith A. Pray 21 5/3/2015 Plan For The Long Term Version control Future development New platforms Patches Security Training Customer support

22. CS 3043 Social Implications Of Computing 5/3/2015© 2008 Keith A. Pray 22 Class 12 The End Keith A. Pray Instructor socialimps.keithpray.net