1. Examining fire spread patterns across a managed forest-land mosaic in northern Wisconsin, USA using a modeling approach Jacob LaCroix, Daolan Zheng, Soung-Ryoul Ryu and Jiquan Chen

2. Introduction Chequamegon National Forest, WI With FARSITE model (Finney 1994) Look at fire spread across landscape using standard fuel modules (Anderson 1982) Support research to other efforts of fire team, basic questions of fire spread

3. Objectives Examine 4 factors that influence the rate of fire spread on a landscape Interrelated at the landscape level

4. 4 Factors to Investigate: Influence/strength of fire behavior –Can we make simplifying predictions for FML, FLI, HPA on ROS Demonstrate patch differences –Is the fire behaving differently in each patch? Landscape Structure –Are burned areas different for fires started in 12 different locations? Influence/strength of 3 weather factors –Wind, Rain, Temperature, influence on area of fire spread

5. Methods Gather data from FARSITE simulation at CNF, using 2001 landscape and 2002, weather from the MHW met-station Place fires on the landscape in up to 12 different locations, for 15 and 27 days long, 24 hour burning period, same weather and starting moistures in the fuels in all cases –Except last weather investigation For a modeler using Andersons (1982) fuels which FARSITE was designed to use without adjustment

6. Methods 1 To determine the relative influences of 3 fire behavioral characteristics on the rate of spread to see if we can make simpler models Use Path Coefficient Analysis, to create a model and a table of direct and indirect affects for each variable, FLI, FML, HPA on ROS. –These are the same 4 outputs as in a Fire Behavior Chart

8. What is Path Analysis Combines 3 statistical tools –Linear Correlation –Linear Regression –Model Building Uses standardized Betas so variables in model are comparable Good tool for variables that are closely related, complex systems

9. Preliminary Results

10. Table 1. Path coefficient analysis of the relationships between fire behavior characteristics and rate of fire spread using four standard fuel types in a FARSITE fire simulation.

11. Methods 2 To determine if fire is behaving differently in each patch/fuel type Use 4 separate, 1-way ANOVA tests, 1 for each variable of fire behavior, HPA, FLI, FML, ROS Verification of the FARSITE model for my own proof

12. Preliminary Results Table 2. Data collected from fire spread simulation: 27 day fire, samples taken through- out the course of the fire for each fuel category, 6 times.

13. Preliminary Results 1-way ANOVA analysis of the 4 patch types Hypothesis is that there is no significant difference between the HPA, FLI, FML, ROS among the 4 types of fuel/patches P values are: HPA=0.0001, FLI=0.0001, FLM=0.0001, ROS=0.0007 Every variable is significantly different between the 4 types of fuel/patches

14. Methods 3 To determine if landscape structure affects how far fires spread, (area after the burn) Place 12 fires, started in different location on the landscape Compare the areas in Hectares of fires for significance Brainstorm ideas for statistical tests are to use t-test, comparison of slopes of a line, ANOVA, chi-squared, others?

15. Preliminary Results Earlier runs suggest that there will be difference in area in different starting points

16. Methods 4 To determine the relative influences of 3 weather characteristics on the rate of spread of fire to see if we can make simpler models Separate out the affects of each component on area of fire in FARSITE first –3x3x3=27 landscape conditions Use Path Coefficient Analysis, to create a model and a table of direct and indirect affects for each variable, Wind, Rain and Temperature, on area of spread. Brainstorm, ideas about other statistical test to accomplish this, e.g. General Linear Model (GLM), ANOVA, others?

17. Weather Variables Use historic data from Ashland, WI to find ranges that are logical for Hi and Lo Wind, Rain, and Temperatures from the past 100 years http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/Precip/WI/470 349_psum.html Change the ASCII file inputs in FARSITE –run simulations 27x12=324

18. Preliminary Results Running the model suggests differences in area in with different weather factors

19. FARSITE Outputs Show the 2001 landscape With Fire in HPA With Fire in ROS With Fire in FLI With Fire in FML

20. Figure 1. Shows the Chequamegon National Forest Landscape with the 4 fuel types in different colors. Brown = brush. Green = closed timber litter: no under-story, closed canopy, pine needle and leaf duff. Red = timber litter and Under story: hardwood leaves, young trees. Yellow = light logging slash.

21. Figure 2. Shows the Chequamegon National Forest Landscape with the 4 fuel types in different colors. Brown = brush. Green = closed timber litter: pine needle and leaf duff, closed canopy. Red = timber litter and under story, hardwood leaves, young trees. Yellow = light logging slash. Also, the fire is placed on the landscape with Heat per Area represented. Blue = Cool heat. Red = Medium heat. Black = High heat.

22. Figure 3. Shows the Chequamegon National Forest Landscape with the 4 fuel types in different colors. Brown = brush. Green = closed timber litter: pine needle and leaf duff, closed canopy. Red = timber litter and under story: hardwood leaves and young trees. Yellow = light logging slash. Also, the fire is placed on the landscape with Rate of Spread represented. Blue = Slow rate. Red = Medium rate.

23. Figure 4. Shows the Chequamegon National Forest Landscape with the 4 fuel types in different colors. Brown = brush. Green = closed timber litter: pine needle and leaf duff, closed canopy. Red = timber litter and under story: hardwood leaves and young trees. Yellow = light logging slash. Also, the fire is placed on the landscape with Fire Line Intensity represented. Blue = Slow rate. Red = Medium rate.

24. Figure 5. Shows the Chequamegon National Forest Landscape with the 4 fuel types in different colors. Brown = brush. Green = closed timber litter: pine needle and leaf duff, closed canopy. Red = timber litter and under story: hardwood leaves and young trees. Yellow = light logging slash. Also, the fire is placed on the landscape with Flame Length represented. Blue = Slow rate. Red = Medium rate.

25. Acknowledgements This study is supported by a grant from the JFSP Co-authors and the LEES lab

26. Questions Help determining if these analysis are appropriate The best statistical tests to employ –In landscape area objective and weather analysis objective