1. Care Act 2014 Social Care & Funding Reform Understanding the Costs The Lincolnshire Model By Glen Garrod Director of Adult Social Services Lincolnshire County Council

2. Lincolnshire Context Population of 718,800 Predominantly Low Skilled, Low Paid Economy, Pockets of Deprivation Lowest quartile in terms of council tax rates 29% of total service budget spent on social care in 2013/14 Cost of in-house services reduced from £27m to £3m between 2011/12 & 2013/14 Revenue Budgets in 2013/14 Gross £206.431 Net £140.709 Additional ongoing Cost Pressures identified including: Demographic Growth (Highest Growth of over 75s in East Midlands) On-going pressures within Learning Disabilities Services Residential and Nursing rate agreements Impact of Care Act and Dilnot recommendations Integration with Health

3. The Lincolnshire Model Attempts to estimate the additional cost to Lincolnshire County Council as a direct result of the implementation of the Care Act 2014. Increase in Asset Thresholds Implementation of the Care Cap Statutory Responsibilities to Carers Additional Assessment Activity Loss of Existing Service User Income

4. The Lincolnshire Model Concept of the model is simplicity, with the emphasis on local variation so that it can easily adjusted to suit local conditions and is built on the following basis: Use of Formulae where possible Use information that is generally available to all (e.g. Service User and Brokerage data) Use recognised assumptions around areas such as inflation and asset values Incorporate other pieces of intelligence

5. The Lincolnshire Model Sources of Data Include: Existing Service User Data Average levels of Income for Self Funders Model the impact of threshold increases on existing SU Establish Attrition Rates Laing & Buisson Evaluation of Lincolnshire Residential Sector Used to calculate estimate of self funders Detail of self funder rates Brokerage Data Establish average hourly rates of Dom Care Establish average hours of care delivered Land Registry Data to establish average property values around Terraced Semi Detached Detached Maisonettes Staff and Assessment Data to establish cost of additional assessment activity

6. The Lincolnshire Model Findings: Cost to Lincolnshire over ten years estimated to be £157m Impact of threshold will be felt immediately £6.4m cost of new services users Reduction in existing contributions £1.7m Total financial impact including on-going assessment costs in 2016/17 is £11.7m Impact of Care Cap not felt until Year 7 (2022/23) Due to lower than average cost of residential care Impact does not reduce over time, at year 10 (2025/26) additional financial impact totals £20.6m

7. The Lincolnshire Model Analysis Year 1 – from 2016/17 Analysis Against Actual Costs2013/14 Actuals (£m)Dilnot Outcomes Yr 1 (£m)% OP Net Residential Spend/Additional Cost64.9456.48210% OP Gross Expenditure/Additonal Cost88.8036.4829% OP Residential Income/Loss of Income21.6750.3902% OP Non Residential Income/Loss of Income5.2460.2344% WAA Residential Income/Loss of Income2.7591.02837% WAA Non Residential Income/Loss of Income0.6670.07712% Adult Care Total Gross Cost206.43111.7545% Adult Care Total Net Cost140.70911.7548%

8. The Lincolnshire Model Analysis Year 10 – 2025/26 Analysis Against Actual Costs 2013/14 Actuals (£m) Dilnot Outcomes Yr 10 (£m)% OP Net Residential Spend/Additional Cost64.94517.38227% OP Gross Expenditure/Additonal Cost88.80317.38220% OP Residential Income/Loss of Income21.6750.1461% OP Non Residential Income/Loss of Income5.2460.0741% WAA Residential Income/Loss of Income2.7590.53920% WAA Non Residential Income/Loss of Income0.6670.0274% Adult Care Total Gross Cost206.43120.61710% Adult Care Total Net Cost140.70920.61715%

9. The Lincolnshire Model Next Steps: Continued work to establish the cost of reforms with regional and national finance groups Further validation and correction of the model Look to establish other examples of best practice and apply to the model Establish the impact of any significant revisions pre/post general election Apply further budgetary changes e.g. changes to residential rates

10. The Lincolnshire Model

11. Headline findings - support 23/10/2014Care Act Stocktake and support10 99% of councils said they were aware of the tools and support that have been developed nationally (Q45). Councils were asked which tools have advanced their confidence in delivering the Care Act (Q45a), and also to outline any additional support, guidance or information that would increase their confidence for implementation in 2015 (Q46). Their responses are below: Existing tools that have “most advanced confidence in ability to deliver Care Act reforms” (Q45a) Revised Lincolnshire model90% Care Act Factsheets86% Care Act Clause Analysis82% Draft regulations and guidance80% Care Act Stocktake78% Draft capacity planning model66% ADASS updates66% Additional tools, guidance or information requests (Q46) More timely release of regs/guidance/allocations Financial modelling tools and information Greater clarity on eligibility Workforce development tools Peer support and best practice sharing National communications tools Legal support Continued focus on technology suppliers National guidance on IFAs