1. National Scrapie Eradication April 2014 Monthly Report National Scrapie Eradication Program February 2015 Monthly Report Fiscal Year 2015 U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Veterinary Services Surveillance, Response and Preparedness Services Sheep and Goat Health Program March 15, 2015

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3. INTRODUCTION - Program Summary At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull black face sheep found positive at slaughter was 0.02 percent (Chart 1). This measure decreased by 51 percent compared to FY 2013 and 98 percent compared to FY 2003. Eight source flocks (including 2 goat herds) and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2013. Three source flocks and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2014 (Chart 2), a decrease of 45 percent. One infected and two source flocks have been designated in FY 2015. At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color* was 0.019 percent and is currently at 0.009 percent for FY 2015 (Chart 3). This measure increased by 31 percent compared to FY 2013 and decreased 87 percent compared to FY 2003. In November 2014, the first positive goat found through RSSS was identified. Based on the goats sampled at slaughter to date, the prevalence of scrapie in U.S. cull goats is 0.004 percent with an upper 95 percent confidence limit of 0.013 percent. Chart 3a was added to the December 2014 report to show the percent positive goats at slaughter each FY since FY 2011. * See slide 4 for an explanation of adjusted weights. Introduction - Program Summary

4. INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 1) Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS) RSSS started April 1, 2003. It is a targeted slaughter surveillance program which is designed to identify infected flocks. Samples have been collected from 459,201 animals since April 1, 2003. There have been 477 NVSL confirmed positive animals* (469 classical cases and 8 Nor98-like cases) since the beginning of RSSS. As of February 28, 2015, 15,463 samples have been collected in FY 2015, 12,352 from sheep and 3,111 from goats. As of February 28, 2015, 2 black-faced sheep and 1 goat have tested positive for scrapie in FY 2015; this is the first positive goat case found through RSSS. The weighted percentage of samples from sheep that have tested positive for each face color from FY 2003 through FY 2015 is depicted in Chart 3**; percent positive goats are shown in Chart 3a. In November 2013, administrative units within APHIS Veterinary Services reorganized from 2 Regions to 6 Districts (Figure 1). The distribution of sheep and goat populations by District is depicted in Chart 4a. The number of animals collected for FY 2015 by District where collected is shown in Chart 4b. A monthly comparison of RSSS collections by fiscal year is displayed in Chart 5. Chart 6 is a retrospective 6- month rolling average of the percent positive, black-faced sheep sampled at RSSS collection sites. * RSSS positives are reported based on collection date and may have been confirmed after February 28, 2015. ** White, black and mottled face color sheep are weighted based on population. White faced sheep have the highest weight, so when the rare white face positive sheep is found it causes this statistic to markedly increase. Goats and other face colored sheep are not included in this calculation. Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)

5. INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 2) On-Farm Surveillance Testing sheep and goats on-farm is an essential part of scrapie surveillance. It includes both regulatory testing of scrapie exposed and potentially exposed sheep and goats and testing sheep and goats on farm for routine surveillance. As the National Scrapie Eradication Program moves closer towards meeting the goal of identifying the last remaining cases of classical scrapie, finding and testing all sheep and goats meeting targeted sampling criteria is even more important. As of February 28, 2015, 511 sheep and 214 goats have been tested on-farm for FY 2015. Twenty-eight animals (27 sheep and 1 goat) have tested positive; 26 of the positive sheep were from the same flock. The number of animals tested on-farm by month and by species for FY 2015 is shown in Chart 7. Total Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing As of February 28, 2015, 16,188 animals have been sampled for scrapie testing in FY 2015: 15,463 RSSS samples and 725 on-farm samples (Chart 8); Of which 12,863 were sheep and 3,325 were goats. Distribution of sampling by type (RSSS or on-farm) and by species is shown in Chart 9. Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

6. INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 3) State Sampling Minimums The National Scrapie Eradication Program establishes annual sheep and goat sampling minimums for each State, and tracks the States’ level of compliance with meeting these minimums. These State minimums help ensure adequate geographical representation, so that APHIS can find the last remaining cases and document freedom from scrapie. State sampling minimums are established based on the population demographics of mature sheep in each State. The calculations used to derive the sampling minimums are described in the National Scrapie Surveillance Plan. The State sampling minimums for sheep and goats, and the total number of animals sampled by State of Animal ID, are provided in the slides listed below. The percent prorated sampling minimum for sheep and goats achieved by each State in FY 2015 are depicted in Figure 2 and Figure 3. District 1Table 1District 4Table 4 District 2Table 2District 5Table 5 District 3Table 3District 6Table 6 Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

7. INTRODUCTION - Positive Cases and Infected/Source Flocks Positive Scrapie Cases* Since the beginning of FY 2015, 29 sheep have tested positive for scrapie; 26 of these positives were from the same source flock. (Table 7 and Figure 4). The first RSSS positive goat was reported in November 2014. This case and a positive clinical suspect from the same herd increases the number of confirmed positive cases in goats since FY 2002 to 41 (Table 7 and Figure 5). Total positive cases reported in FY 2015 is 31. Infected and Source Flocks As of February 28, 2015, there were 5 flocks with an open source status (Figure 6). One infected and two source flocks have been designated in FY 2015 (Figure 7); two flocks completed a flock clean-up plan and were released (Figure 8). New infected and source statuses from FY 1997 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 2. * Samples collected between October 1, 2014 and February 28, 2015 and confirmed by March 15, 2014. Cases and New Infected/Source Flocks

8. INTRODUCTION - Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP) As of February 28, 2015, there were 451 flocks participating in the Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP). Statuses of these flocks were 172 export monitored, 17 export certified, and 262 select monitored flocks (Figure 9). SFCP open statuses by fiscal year from FY 2007 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 10. The current status of participating flocks is available to the public on the SFCP Web Page. 1 The current version of the SFCP standards was published June 20, 2013. A copy of the standards can be downloaded from APHIS’ SFCP Web Page. 1 Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status. This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database. Introduction – Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

9. * Through February 28, 2015—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from same flock. Mottled- and white-faced combined. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011). (Chart 1) Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - By Face Color - Fiscal Year (2003 – 2015*)

10. * Through February 28, 2015. (Chart 2) Infected and Source Flocks New Statuses by Year - Fiscal Years 1997 to 2015*

11. * Through February 28, 2015—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from the same flock. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011). (Chart 3) Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Weighted by Face Color Fiscal Years 2003 to 2015*

12. (Chart 3a) Percent of RSSS Goat Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Fiscal Year (2011 – 2015*) * Through February 28, 2015

13. WY WV WI WA VT VI VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PR PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL District One District Two District Three District Four District Five District Six (Figure 1) Surveillance Preparedness and Response Services (SPRS) Districts

14. Total Sheep and Goat Populations by VS District FY 2015* (Chart 4a) * Source: NASS Sheep and Goat January 30, 2015. ** Includes sheep and goats residing in the Navajo Nation. Sheep Goats

15. Total Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by VS District Where Collected FY 2015* (Chart 4b) * Through February 28, 2015. Sheep Goats

16. (Chart 5) Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by Month Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015 As of February 28, 2015 Month * Surveillance numbers were significantly lower October 2013 compared to October in prior FYs because the furlough reduced the number of collection days.

17. * Through February 28, 2015. Includes only sheep with test results reported. Includes multiple positives from same flock. (Chart 6) Retrospective 6 Month Rolling Average of Percent Classical Scrapie Positive Black-Faced Cull Sheep Sampled at Slaughter*

18. On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Month and Species - FY 2015* (Chart 7) * Through February 28, 2015.

19. Number of Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing by Quarter - FY 2015* (Chart 8) * Through February 28, 2015. ** Includes all regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance.

20. * Through February 28, 2015. (Chart 9) RSSS and On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Species - FY 2015*

21. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 1 (Table 1) * As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. WV VT VA RI PA NY NJ NH NC ME MD MA DE CT Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Connecticut92794 Delaware2603 Maine6758135 Maryland391102192 Massachusetts225657 New Hampshire384034 New Jersey776110 New York30047017541 North Carolina1411506675 Pennsylvania11158514562 Rhode Island10901 Vermont8180168 Virginia1905306659 West Virginia1602201924

22. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 2 (Table 2) * As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. TN SC GA FL AL Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Alabama551193959 Florida5732065 Georgia331049068 South Carolina2762 49 Tennessee52423080141

23. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 3 (Table 3) * As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. WI OH MN MI KY INIL IA Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Illinois279360125 Indiana41934033648 Iowa44758957349 Kentucky23831022984 Michigan64843062189 Minnesota4945884642 Ohio611587169426 Wisconsin5105203680

24. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 4 (Table 4) * As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. TX OK MS LA AR MO Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Arkansas4410212047 Louisiana1945523 Mississippi22692530 Missouri247530303105 Oklahoma5542065111 Texas27159776597

25. FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 5 (Table 5) * As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. WY SD NE ND MT KS ID Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Idaho4575931920 Kansas1303902443 Montana8745933313 Nebraska1695403523 North Dakota40841074 South Dakota1,2105941710 Wyoming1,023595268

26. WA UT OR NV NM HI CO CA AZ AK FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections District 6 (Table 6) * As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State. Total Sheep Sampled FY 2015* Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Total Goats Sampled FY 2015* Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015 Alaska11501 Arizona132003682 California323595116588 Colorado693593135243 Hawaii3289512 Nevada355503617 New Mexico552364213 Oregon36459013442 Utah5235942415 Washington13034068209

27. WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 100% > 100% Percent of Prorated Sampling Minimum Achieved in FY 2015—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Sheep* * As of February 28, 2015. Percentage of sampling minimum achieved is based on 35% of the annual sampling minimum. (Figure 2)

28. WY WV WI WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY KS INIL ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL ≤ 20% 21 - 40% 41 - 60% 61 - 80% 81 - 100% > 100% Percent of Prorated Sampling Minimum Achieved in FY 2015—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Goats* * As of February 28, 2015. Percentage of sampling minimum achieved is based on 40% of the annual sampling minimum. AK, RI and DE have a sampling minimum of 1. IA and MD had a large increase in their minimums due to finding an infected herd in each State in FY 2014. (Figure 3)

29. (Table 7) Scrapie Confirmed Cases in FY 2015 As of February 28, 2015 State SheepGoats RSSSOn-FarmRSSSOn-Farm CO0111 ID02600 OH1000 WI1000 Total All States 22711

30. Scrapie Confirmed Cases FY 2015 As of February 28, 2015 30 WY WV WI 1 WA VT UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 1 # NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN ID 26 IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1*/2 CA AZ AR AK AL Type of Scrapie RSSSField Cases Total Classical32831 (Nor98- like) (0) Total32831 VA IL (Figure 4) * First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014. # RSSS positive case with IN serial tag was traced to OH.

31. WY WV WIWI WA 1 VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH 5 NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI 6 ME MD – 2 MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID IA 7 HI GA FL DE CT CO 1*/4 CA 13 AZ 1 AR AK AL (Figure 5) Scrapie Cases in Goats FY 2002 – FY 2015 As of February 28, 2015 Type of Scrapie RSSSField Cases Total Classical14041 (Nor98-like)(0) Total14041 * First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014.

32. WY WV WI 1 WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL 1 ID 1 IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 2 CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 6) Open Source – 4 Open Infected – 1 Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses - As of February 28, 2015 MD

33. WY WV WI 1 WA VT VA UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MA LA KY KS IN IL ID 1 IA HI GA FL DE CT CO 1 CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 7) New Source – 2 New Infected – 1 New Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2015 - As of February 28, 2015 MD

34. WY WV WI WA VT VA 1 UT TX TN SD SC RI PA OR OK OH NY NV NM NJ NH NE ND NC MT MS MO MN MI ME MD MA LA KY-1 KS IN IL 1 ID IA HI GA FL DE CT CO CA AZ AR AK AL (Figure 8) Completed Clean-Up Plan and Released – 2 Released Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks FY 2015 - As of February 28, 2015

35. Scrapie Flock Certification Program: Participating Flocks As of February 28, 2015 Total Enrolled Flocks--451 Export Monitored—172 Export Certified—17 Selective Monitored—262 WY 6 WV 1 WI 20 WA 13 VA 3 UT 4 TX 0 TN-13 SD 6 SC 16 RI-2 PA 46 OR 15 OK 5 OH 3 NY 5 NV 1 NM 3 NJ-11 NE 6 ND 0 NC-14 MT 5 MS 11 MO 2 MN 6 MI 7 ME 23 MD-2 MA-8 LA 7 KY-13 KS 5 IN 31 IL 8 ID 10 IA 6 HI 22 GA 15 FL 17 DE-0 CT-12 CO 1 CA 8 AZ 0 AR 0 AK 1 AL 10 VT 18 NH-8 (Figure 9)

36. SFCP Participating Flocks FY 2007 to FY 2015* 36 * As of February 28, 2015. Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status. (Chart 10)