1. Click to edit Master subtitle style Drivers of Energy Future in the Mekong Region: Prospective Development Paths Jyrki Luukkanen

2. 16.2.2009 Contents  Drivers behind the energy use increase in the Mekong region  Solutions?

3. 16.2.2009 Drivers behind the energy use increase in Mekong region  Industrialisation  The economic structure is changing from agricultural production to industrial production  Energy use per GDP grows with industrialisation

4. 16.2.2009 Industrialization  Globalization with transfer of heavy and polluting industry to developing countries  Will Laos be the battery for Mekong Region and global provider of minerals and metals  Will Cambodia be garment provider

5. 16.2.2009  Urbanisation  Energy consumption structure will change  Larger share of commercial, often fossil based energy  Increased education among younger population drives urbanisation  Increased mobility  Shift to market economy: ”Households are more reliant on self-employment and wage labour and less reliant on agriculture and common property resources (CPR), including fisheries and forests (MOPS Cambodia, WB)”  Urbanisation Energy consumption structure will change Larger share of commercial, often fossil based energy Increased education among younger population drives urbanisation Increased mobility Shift to market economy: ”Households are more reliant on self-employment and wage labour and less reliant on agriculture and common property resources (CPR), including fisheries and forests (MOPS Cambodia, WB)”

6. 16.2.2009 Transport energy %

7. 16.2.2009 Shift to fossil energy

8. 16.2.2009 Solutions?  Energy saving – reduction of energy end use  Improved stoves  Energy saving lamps  More efficient cooling systems  Improved house construction  Urban planning  Improved energy technology

9. 16.2.2009 Solutions?  Renewable energy  Solar, biomass, wind, hydro  In many cases the large investment cost is a problem  Should the developing country people reduce CO2 when we are not ready to reduce?

10. 16.2.2009 Solutions? (cont.)  Democracy  Basis for sustainable development  Incorporation of different groups in decision making  Ownership of energy development  No one best solution  Integrated approach  Dimensions of sustainability: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political and Values

11. 16.2.2009 Finnish development aid policy?  Aid projects should not mess the local market situation  Aid should be based on coherent strategy determined by the local government  Aid should combine energy projects with other livelihood improvement projects  Aid should take into account the long term perspective (poverty reduction) and short term income generation perspective to be sustainable

12. 16.2.2009 Thank you Jyrki Luukkanen Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus Turun kauppakorkeakoulu jyrki.luukkanen@tse.fi jyrki.luukkanen@tse.fi