1. Estimated Release’s Daily Passage at McNary Dam and Application to Release-to-Passage Survival Doug Neeley Consultant to Yakama Nation Yakima-Klickitat Fisheries Project David Lind Yakama Nation Yakima-Klickitat Fisheries Project

2. Estimation of Survival from Release to McNary (McN) using Passage Estimates

3. Wherein McNary Detection Rate is the proportion of juveniles passing McNary Dam that are actually detected at McNary Dam.

5. Bi-plot of Detections by McN date x Downstream Dam

7. Initial McN Daily Detection Rate Estimates

11. Stepwise Stratification of Detection Rates (Step 1)

12. Stepwise Stratification of Detection Rates (Step 2, etc.)

13. Final Stratification

14. Final Stratification with within Stratum Estimates

15. Logistic Regression Analysis of Variation Summary

16. Restrictions applied to Strata Selection At a given partitioning stage, the stratum partitioning chosen is the one that minimizes the variation of data points around the stratum estimates A partitioning is not selected unless it significantly reduces the variation of the data points at the 10% significance level A partitioning is not selected unless there at least 20 joint detections included within each of the strata created by the partitioning

17. Total and Joint Downstream Counts

18. Restrictions applied to Strata Selection Although the detection rates used are based on the pooling of the detections from John Day and Bonneville Dams, separate estimates are obtained from each of the downstream dams. If the detection-rate estimates’ relative magnitudes are not the same for adjacent strata for the John Day and for the Bonneville estimates, the partitioning is not selected

19. Individual Downstream Dam Estimates

20. Assumptions Within strata, survivals from McNary to downstream dam(s) are equal for all routes of McNary passage Within strata, fish from all routes of McNary passage are temporally and spatially well mixed before reaching downstream dams The probability of a fish being detected at a downstream is dam is independent of whether or not the fish has been detected at an evaluated upstream dam (e.g., probability of being detected at Bonneville independent of detection at John Day or McNary, probability of detection at John Day independent of detection at McNary)

21. Comparison of Bonn-Based and JD-Based Estimates

22. Assumptions For fish detected on a given day at downstream dam(s), the distribution of McNary passage is the same for fish detected and for fish not detected at McNary

23. McN Detected and Not-Detected Distribution at Bonn and JD