1. The Potential for International Comparability of Manufacturing Statistics in AMCs: Workshop on Manufacturing Statistics Lusaka, Zambia, 4-7 May 2009 EAMS Secretariat (FY2008) Tomoyuki Kuroda Ph.D

2. Objective of this Presentation ◆ The following presentation looks at the current situation with regard to the international comparability of manufacturing statistics based on study carried out to date by the AMEICC WGS and EAMS. ◆ It also puts forward issues for the future with regard to international comparability, drawing on the findings of the aforementioned study.

3. Table of Contents １ Overview and major findings ２ Issues regarding international comparability ３ Future effort to resolve issues

4. Table of Contents １ Overview and major findings ２ Issues regarding international comparability ３ Future effort to resolve issues

5. 1. Overview and major findings ー Overview of the study ー Target area:ASEAN + China, South Korea and Japan (extended to ASEAN+3) -Extending the study to cover all categories of ISIC- 4digit industries (Section-D) 2006 Target area: 8 ASEAN countries + Japan -Basic study on industrial statistics in general 2003 Target area: 10 ASEAN countries + Japan -Initial study into the international comparability of manufacturing statistics 2004 Target area: 10 ASEAN countries + Japan -Trial studies into the comparability of manufacturing statistics in three industries 2005

6. What is Industrial Statistics ?

7. Table1. Summary Table for the Definition of the Industrial Statistics Note:1. The grey color denotes the sector covered in the industrial statistics in each country. 2. The ISIC codes follow the ISIC Rev. 3 3.The table above follows the definition at the Ministry of Industry for Lao PDR and the Ministry of Industry for Thailand. 4.The table follows the definition in each country as of May 2005. ISIC CodeAB C＊C＊ D＊D＊ E＋E＋ F G＋G＋ H I＋I＋ J K＋K＋ L M＋M＋ N＋N＋ O＋O＋ PQ Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles, Motor Cycles and Personal and Household Goods Hotel and Restaurants Transport, Storage and Communications Financial Intermediation Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities Public Administration and Defense; Compulsory Social Security Education Health and Social Work Other Community, Social and Personal Service Activities Private Households with Employed Persons Extra-Territorial Organizations and Bodies Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam What is Industrial Statistics?

8. What is Census and Survey ?

9. Census is defined as a complete enumeration census and survey as a sample survey. Census in Cambodia denotes a complete enumeration, and survey denotes a sample survey. Census Census refers to three censuses - the economic census, the population census and the agriculture census - all of which target the entire population. Among them, the economic census covers all incorporated and unincorporated businesses. The survey approach adopted in the censuses is based on the "complete enumeration" method. Survey Surveys are conducted as part of a follow-up to a census, using the data frame produced by the census. The Integrated Survey of Small-scale Establishments, for instance, studies incorporated and unincorporated companies based on economic censuses already conducted. In Japan, a “Census” means a complete enumeration survey, whereas a “survey” indicates a sample survey. Cambodia Indonesia Japan Brunei

10. While census denote a complete enumeration such as a population census or an agriculture census, survey indicates those conducted by the sampling method. Census is defined as a complete enumeration census and survey as a sample survey. Although no census has ever been taken in Myanmar, census is defined as a complete enumeration and survey as a sampling. There is not much difference between the terms census and survey in the Philippines, except in geographic and industry coverage. Both include establishments with 100 or more employees on a complete enumeration, although small establishments with less than 100 employees are covered on a sample basis in the survey. The census covers businesses down to the 5-digit level of classification, whereas surveys cover only those down to the 4-digit level. Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines What is Census and Survey?

11. Census in Singapore covers all establishments, i.e. complete enumeration, while survey is compiled by sampling. Census means a complete enumeration and survey means a sample survey. In Vietnam, the definitions of census and survey differ between the manufacturing statistics and commerce statistics. In the manufacturing statistics, census indicates a complete enumeration census, but survey denotes a sample survey. The commerce statistics, on the other hand, make no distinction between census and survey. Thailand Vietnam Singapore What is Census and Survey?

12. BruneiCambodiaIndonesiaJapanLao PDRMalaysiaMyanma r Philippine s Singapor e ThailandVietnam Census Complete Enumeration Complete Enumera- tion PSIC 5digits Complete Enumera- tion Survey Sampling Uses the frame compiled in Censuses Sampling PSIC 4digitsSampling What is Census and Survey?

13. What is Establishments and Enterprises ?

14. Establishments and Enterprises Reference: Excerpts from ISIC Rev. 3. on establishments and enterprises - Establishment An enterprise, or part of it, independently engaged in one, or mainly one economic activity at one location, or in one geographical area, or from thereof, having business surplus data available and suitable for usage or meaningful compilation. - Enterprise An institutional unit, or the smallest group of these units, having all the functions necessary for production activities with a management to control these activities directly or indirectly. Most of the countries applies the definitions as in the ISIC Rev. 3, or those very close to the ISIC Several countries do not distinguish establishments and enterprises due to the size of economy.

15. The definitions for establishment and enterprise used in Brunei Darussalam are based on ISIC. An establishment is an economic unit which engages, under a single legal entity, in one, or predominantly one, kind of economic activity at a single location. An enterprise is defined as the entire economic activity operated under a single legal entity and it may consist of more than one establishment. The legal entity may be a corporation, co-operative, association, partnership, individual proprietorship or association. In Brunei Darussalam, surveys based on enterprises are performed. - Establishment: An economic entity under sole ownership or management. In other words, it is a legal entity and an economic unit conducting one, or mainly one, business activity at a fixed location. - Enterprise: An institutional unit or the smallest group of these units having all the functions necessary for production activities and the management to control these activities directly or indirectly. - Establishment: Establishment denotes an entity of economic activity producing products for sale or exchange, having one or more employees engaged in personnel affairs and sales strategies. For this reason, establishments can take the form of private offices, factories, representative offices, branches and headquarters. - Enterprise: Irrespective of whether an enterprise is engaged in economic activity or not, an enterprise comprises a group of establishments. An enterprise is considered to be an aggregation of establishments. As the number of enterprises is small, enterprises and establishments are in effect treated as the same kind of entity. Cambodia Indonesia Brunei Lao PDR Establishments and Enterprises

16. - Establishment (uses ISIC definition): An enterprise, or part of it, independently engaged in one, or mainly one economic activity at one location, or in one geographical area, or from thereof, having business surplus data available and suitable for usage or meaningful compilation. - Enterprise: Enterprise denotes a business entity operating under an incorporated institution and having more than one establishment. Myanmar makes no distinction between establishments and enterprises, and they are in effect treated as the same kind of entity - Establishment: A business entity or a corporation under sole ownership or control, conducting one, or mainly one, business activity at one location. - Enterprise: Enterprise means a corporation, or a quasi-corporation, having all the functions necessary for conducting business activities directly or indirectly. Included in it are corporations, joint corporations, associations, non-profit corporations and cooperatives. Irrespective of their business activities and areas, they are supposed to have ownership and control thereof. Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Establishments and Enterprises

17. - Establishment (uses ISIC definition): A unit of enterprise, or part of it, independently engaged in one, or mainly one, economic activity at one location, or in one geographical area, or from thereof, having business surplus data available and suitable for usage or meaningful compilation. - Enterprise (uses ISIC definition): An institutional unit, or the smallest group of these units, having all the functions necessary for production activities, and a management to control these activities directly or indirectly The definitions for establishment and enterprise used in Thailand are based on ISIC. The definitions for establishment and enterprise used in Vietnam are based on ISIC. Thailand Vietnam Singapore Establishments and Enterprises

18. The Response Rate ?

19. Definition of the response rate The response rate computation method varies widely among the ASEAN countries. As you might expect, "non-response" is excluded from computation in all countries. In Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, however, "invalid replies" are counted in their response rates. On the other hand, there are countries, such as Cambodia and Thailand, which do not include invalid replies in the response rates. In Japan, only valid replies are counted, and both non-response and invalid replies are excluded.

20. Industrial Classification All Industries: Number of Sections, Divisions, Groups, Classes and Items 1074 613 186 60 20 Vietnam(VSIC) － 303 159 60 17 Brunei(BDSIC) － 292 159 60 17 Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand (ISIC Rev. 3) 698 302 157 60 17 Malaysia(MSIC) 1007 392 177 63 18 Indonesia(KBLI) 1005 549 220 63 17 Philippines(PSIC) － － － 148 29 Myanmar(BSIC) － 1072Items (5 Digits) 1269325Classes (4 Digits) 420138Groups (3 Digits) 9754Divisions (2 Digits) 1918Sections (1 Digit) Japan(JSIC)Singapore(SSIC) All Industries

21. Manufacturing: Number of Divisions, Groups, Classes and Items 334 235 64 23 Vietnam(VSIC) - 127 61 23 Brunei(BDSIC) - 127 61 23 Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand (ISIC Rev. 3) 197 127 61 23 Malaysia(MSIC) 371 130 67 23 Indonesia(KBLI) 431 205 75 24 Philippine s (PSIC) - - 84 16 Myanmar(BSIC) -394Items (5 Digits) 587120Classes (4 Digits) 14357Groups (3 Digits) 2521Divisions (2 Digits) Japan(JSIC) Singapor e (SSIC)Manu-facturing Note: Classification in Myanmar includes Sector 1 to Sector 16 regarded as manufacturing. Industrial Classification

22. Brunei Darussalam has developed the 2001 Brunei Darussalam Standard Industrial Classification (BDSIC), which closely follows the ISIC (Rev. 3). It is a four-digit code with the grouping down to the Class Level of the ISIC Rev. 3. Without its own industrial classification, Cambodia uses the four-digit codes of the ISIC Rev. 3. in its entirety. Since 2000, Indonesia has been using Klasifikasi Baku Lapangan Usaha Indonesia (KBLI), replacing the old industrial classification of Klasifikasi Lapangan Usaha Indonesia (KLUI). The KBLI is based on the ISIC Rev. 3. and its smallest classification is a five-digit code, where the last two digits reflect the local conditions in Indonesia. Lao PDR employs four-digits ISIC codes (Rev. 3). Cambodia Indonesia Brunei Lao PDR Industrial Classification

23. Malaysia has migrated to the Malaysia Standard Industry Classification (MSIC) commencing in 2001 in place of the Malaysia Industrial Classification (MIC), 1972. Although the MSIC corresponds to the ISIC (Rev. 3), each industry code is further extended to include product codes for each item. Hence, the lowest classification of the MSIC is the five-digit industry classification. Myanmar does not have an industrial classification of its own that corresponds to the ISIC. The classification in use now is the Burma Standard Industry Classification Code System (BSIC) created in 1954. Myanmar plans to develop a new classification that corresponds to the ISIC in near future. The 1994 Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC) was used beginning the 1996-1997 Annual Survey of Establishments. Prior to this, the 1997 PSIC was used in business and industry census and surveys. The 1994 PSIC is the same as the ISIC Rev. 3 as far as major divisions are concerned, but different codes are occasionally designated in major group (three digits) and class (four-digits) classifications. However, a corresponding table of the PSIC and ISIC, published by the National Statistical Coordinating Committee (NSCB), has been made available. The lowest classification (sub-class) in the PSIC uses a five-digit code. Amendments to the 1994 PSIC was done in 2002 to consider the emerging industries, the ICT sector, in particular. Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Industrial Classification

24. The industrial classification of Singapore employs the Singapore Standard Industrial Classification 2000 (SSIC) that corresponds to the ISIC Rev. 3. The smallest category of the SSIC is five-digits code. A new version of the Thai Standard Industry Classification (TSIC) is updated in 2001. However, the ISIC Rev. 3 is applied in the surveys and censuses. Vietnam uses the Vietnam Standard Industry Classification (VSIC) compiled in 1995, which is based on the ISIC Rev. 3. The VSIC added two digits to the four-digit codes of the ISIC, and its smallest classification uses a six-digit code. Thailand Vietnam Singapore Industrial Classification

25. 1. Overview and major findings ー Study in 2003 ー Major findings from the study in 2003 There are differences between each country, including factors such as the definition and level of statistics compiled. - Differences in survey subjects (“establishments” vs. “enterprise”) - Differences in the level of compilation of lists (Directory) of establishments - Differences in statistical survey methods (different survey scopes, etc.) - Differences in organizational capabilities (budget and personnel, etc.) These were just some of the issues relating to international comparability highlighted as a result of research carried out.

26. 1. Overview and major findings ー Overview of the study ー Target area:ASEAN + China, South Korea and Japan (extended to ASEAN+3) -Extending the study to cover all categories of ISIC- 4digit industries (Section-D) 2006 Target area: 8 ASEAN countries + Japan -Basic study on industrial statistics in general 2003 Target area: 10 ASEAN countries + Japan -Initial study into the international comparability of manufacturing statistics 2004 Target area: 10 ASEAN countries + Japan -Trial studies into the comparability of manufacturing statistics in three industries 2005

27. 1. Overview and major findings ー Study in 2004 ー Main findings from the study in 2004 a) Factors relating to statistical survey methods - Because of differing survey period, it is not possible to conduct comparisons covering the entire ASEAN region on an annual basis. - Because of insufficient budget and human resources, some countries have made little progress in terms of compiling lists (Directory) of establishments/ enterprises. - Full-scale international comparability is unfeasible because of differences in the classification of the scale of survey subjects (e.g. scale of workforce). - Whereas surveys in some countries target “establishments,” surveys in others target “enterprises.” (Brunei, China, Vietnam)

28. 1. Overview and major findings ー Study in 2004 ー Main findings from the study in 2004 b) Factors relating to industrial classification (Section D) Countries can be broadly divided as follows, with ISIC Rev. 3 as the common factor. - Countries using ISIC Rev.3 (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, etc.) - Countries using their own system of industrial classification based on ISIC Rev.3 (other countries) Although there are a number of outstanding issues to be addressed before accurate comparisons can be made, including statistical survey methods, it is increasingly apparent that it may be possible to conduct international comparisons from the standpoint of industrial classification based on ISIC Rev.3.

29. What should we do ?

30. 1. Overview and major findings ー Study in 2005 ー Main findings from the study in 2005 The previous trial study on international comparisons only on three industries in ASEAN countries ISIC Rev.3 ・ 17Textiles ・ 34Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-trailers ・ 361Furniture Reasons for selecting the above industries The above industries were selected from those thought to be active in each of the ASEAN countries based on agreement from the ASEAN countries themselves.

31. 1. Overview and major findings ー Study in 2005 ー Envisioned study results Value of Input Cost, Gross Output and Value Added (Manufacture of Textiles) (As of May 31,2005)

32. 1. Overview and major findings ー Study in 2005 ー Major findings from the study in 2005 Trial international comparisons between three industries in ASEAN countries - In spite of differences between countries conducting censuses and those conducting sample-based surveys, data was obtainable for more or less all establishments for the Y2000. - The concepts and definitions used in each country with regard to factors such as methods of calculating total value added more or less comply with international standards. ⇒ There was determined to be sufficient data available for international comparability in the ASEAN countries in the future. Research indicated a number of outstanding issues however with regard to the conditions required for comparisons to be carried out, including the following. - Differences between “Establishment” and “Enterprise” based statistics - The need to investigate indices to enable comparisons in local currencies

33. I ’ m a very very young guy in this time. Next File, Please!