1. Older Moms Deliver. How Increased Births to Older Mothers Are Impacting School Enrollment Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Population Research Center Portland State University Applied Demography Conference San Antonio, Texas January 2012 PPS

2. What our research is about An outgrowth of our demographic support for Portland Public Schools, one part being enrollment forecast for the District and its schools. An outgrowth of our demographic support for Portland Public Schools, one part being enrollment forecast for the District and its schools. Illustrates the use GIS tools to analyze demographic changes at macro and micro levels. Illustrates the use GIS tools to analyze demographic changes at macro and micro levels. Shows some of the ways in which we link birth trends to housing trends and gentrification of Portland neighborhoods. Shows some of the ways in which we link birth trends to housing trends and gentrification of Portland neighborhoods. A work in progress. A work in progress.

3. An Oregonian article in Fall 2008 noted the increase in kindergarten enrollments. An Oregonian article in Fall 2008 noted the increase in kindergarten enrollments. What factors lay behind this upturn, especially in parts of the District where enrollments have been declining for years? What factors lay behind this upturn, especially in parts of the District where enrollments have been declining for years?

4. The ups and downs of enrollment WWII The Depression Baby Boom Baby Boom Ends Echo of Baby Boom Post 1996 Declines

5. Housing in the Portland Public Schools District Most of the single family building permits were issued for areas outside of the District ( in yellow) Most of the single family building permits were issued for areas outside of the District ( in yellow) The multifamily units in the core area (A) of the District house few school age children The multifamily units in the core area (A) of the District house few school age children Other than the Forest Park area (B), single family construction has had a modest impact on the District’s enrollment. Other than the Forest Park area (B), single family construction has had a modest impact on the District’s enrollment. Pearl District Loft Condos, about one PPS student per 200 units A B

6. Age Specific Fertility Rates in 2000 the Spatial Nature of Birthrates

7. Age Specific Fertility Rates Age Specific fertility - the numbers of births by age of mother. Age Specific fertility - the numbers of births by age of mother. The time dimension here is the age cohort of women The time dimension here is the age cohort of women The clock with the rose sector shows birth rates for the age cohort The clock with the rose sector shows birth rates for the age cohort The “biological clock”

8. $ $ $ $ $ $ B H H H Age Specific Birth Rates – Animation Income and ethnicity impact birth rates Income and ethnicity impact birth rates Minority mothers are younger H, B Minority mothers are younger H, B Affluent mothers are older $ Affluent mothers are older $ $ $ $ $ $ $

9. 199019941998 200220082006 Proportion of Births to Older Mothers Proportion of Births to Older Mothers There was growth in the number of births to older mothers across the District, but that on the east side was mainly after 2000

10. 1990-91 1992-93 1994-951996-97 1998-99 2000-012002-032004-05 2006-07 2008-09 Here is the same series of maps animated Who are the older moms? Who are the older moms? More educated and affluent. More educated and affluent. Married later and postponed motherhood. Married later and postponed motherhood. 50% 75%

11. Areas of Concentration of Age 30+ Mothers “Older Moms” In the areas in blue, green and yellow 75% or more of the births were to mothers age 30 and over. In the areas in blue, green and yellow 75% or more of the births were to mothers age 30 and over. Area A on the east side of the Willamette River is the area where births to older mothers has recently expanded. Area A on the east side of the Willamette River is the area where births to older mothers has recently expanded. Areas B and C are discussed in the analysis Areas B and C are discussed in the analysis There are a number of older moms areas on the west side of the Willamette River that are affluent settled neighborhoods. There are a number of older moms areas on the west side of the Willamette River that are affluent settled neighborhoods. Data for the area outside of the 12 older moms areas are presented for contrast. Data for the area outside of the 12 older moms areas are presented for contrast. Area A, P01, gentrifying area on east side Areas B, P07, and C,P06, older mom area examples Various early older mom areas on west side, P02, P03,..P11 The remainder of the district, P00, outside of older mom areas

12. Births by Race and Age of Mother For Area A and PPS outside of older mom areas Outside Older Mom areas White White Black Black Hispanic Hispanic Inside Area A White White Black Black Hispanic = (YesRace = (All)

13. Characteristics of mothers and their dwellings Educational levels of mothers in the district and in gentrifying areas Educational levels of mothers in the district and in gentrifying areas Length of residence in their homes Length of residence in their homes Size of residences (building square feet) Size of residences (building square feet)

14. Educational levels for mothers for selected areas by tenure and land use PPS outside older mom areas Single family own Single family own Single family rent Single family rent Area A Single family own Single family own Single family rent Single family rent Area B Single family own Single family own A stable high income area A stable high income area Area C Single family own Single family own A gentrifying area with smaller housing units and lower costs than A A gentrifying area with smaller housing units and lower costs than A

15. Length of Residence by Tenure and Birth Order Mothers residing in single family owner occupied units Area A for the 2006-2009 period Birth order One One Two Two Three Three First births were most numerous for older moms in this area and were most numerous for mothers who moved in about five years previous (2001 to 2004) with these children becoming kindergarten age five years later (2006 to 2009).

16. Map showing years since last sale for single family owner occupied housing Note that area A shows some of the longest periods of residence. Along the margins of area A turnover is much higher.

17. Building square feet Outside of “older moms” areas Outside of “older moms” areas Area A Area A Building Square Feet by Tenure and Birth Order Mothers residing in single family owner occupied housing Area A and outside of “older moms” areas

18. Here is a map showing building square feet By tax-lot. Note the heterogeneous nature. Generalized by area Many older homes were built with only Two bedrooms. This is a constraint on the gentrification process.

19. Map showing year housing built The gentrifying areas to the east of the Willamette River were mainly built prior to 1930. Areas of newer housing outside of the district present a variety of housing options, many of which are less expensive that that in the district.

20. Animation of housing value – Single Family Gentrification spread from high value core areas outward Gentrification spread from high value core areas outward Housing values peaked in 2009 Housing values peaked in 2009

21. Change in Percent with 4 Year Degree or Higher This map is based on census and ACS data for 1990, 2000 and 2005-20009. It shows where the percent with a 4 year degree or higher have increased. This map is based on census and ACS data for 1990, 2000 and 2005-20009. It shows where the percent with a 4 year degree or higher have increased. This is a common identifier for gentrification. This is a common identifier for gentrification. Note the correspondence between areas “A”, “B”, and “C” where the density of births to older mothers increased Note the correspondence between areas “A”, “B”, and “C” where the density of births to older mothers increased A C B

22. The impacts on school enrollment For all PPS students the growth in the gentrifying areas boosted enrollment, especially for grades KG-02 For all PPS students the growth in the gentrifying areas boosted enrollment, especially for grades KG-02 The impact was greater for white students, countering the loss of black students The impact was greater for white students, countering the loss of black students

23. Another view for white students For those parts of the District outside of the older moms areas enrollment of white students declined with a small up tick in 2007 For those parts of the District outside of the older moms areas enrollment of white students declined with a small up tick in 2007 In area A (P01) the growth of enrollment began in 2001 for grades KG-02 and has carried through into the higher grades In area A (P01) the growth of enrollment began in 2001 for grades KG-02 and has carried through into the higher grades For the other gentrifying areas (P02- P11) the impacts on enrollment have been less pronounced For the other gentrifying areas (P02- P11) the impacts on enrollment have been less pronounced

24. Grade Progression Ratio Animation Grade Progression Ratio Animation Shows gains by cohort for lower grades Shows gains by cohort for lower grades

25. Conclusions The influx of older mothers into the gentrifying area on the east side of the Portland School District has in fact caused a rise in school enrollments in this area and has helped to counteract the losses of students from other areas and black students from this same area. The influx of older mothers into the gentrifying area on the east side of the Portland School District has in fact caused a rise in school enrollments in this area and has helped to counteract the losses of students from other areas and black students from this same area. Linking tax-lot, student, and birth data allows us to create a variety of useful queries about birth mothers, students, and their housing context at a high degree of geographical detail. The ability to make these linkages is especially important because of the thin sampling of the ACS that limits detailed geographical analysis. Linking tax-lot, student, and birth data allows us to create a variety of useful queries about birth mothers, students, and their housing context at a high degree of geographical detail. The ability to make these linkages is especially important because of the thin sampling of the ACS that limits detailed geographical analysis. The set up for the GIS/tabular analysis was laborious for the exploratory analysis for this paper. With the completed database carrying out the queries is efficient. The set up for the GIS/tabular analysis was laborious for the exploratory analysis for this paper. With the completed database carrying out the queries is efficient. In our demographic work for school districts we make use of these linkages to better coordinate school and community planning. Oregon laws require both school districts and communities to cooperate in planning for the need for schools and to consider their impacts on the community. We are beginning a project with planners for the city of Portland to look into how this best can be done. In our demographic work for school districts we make use of these linkages to better coordinate school and community planning. Oregon laws require both school districts and communities to cooperate in planning for the need for schools and to consider their impacts on the community. We are beginning a project with planners for the city of Portland to look into how this best can be done.

26. Contact information: Population Research Center, Portland State University Richard Lycan – lycand@pdx.edu, 503-880-3230lycand@pdx.edu Charles Rynerson – rynerson@pdx.edu, 503-725-5157rynerson@pdx.edu Website – http://www.pdx.edu/prc PPS Credits: Portland Public Schools, Multnomah Co. GIS, Metro, and the Oregon Health Division for the data used in the research. My grand daughter, Paula Lycan, for the stork and school drawing.