1. STMPublishers& Open Access

2. STMPublishers&

3. QUO VADIS? STM Publishers and Open Access Michael Mabe CEO, STM & Visiting Professor, Information Science, University College London

4. What is “ stm ”? International trade association Members are academic publishers – Learned societies, University presses, Commercial publishers Some EU-based members include Biochemical Society, BMJ Group, Cambridge University Press, Deutsche Aertze-Verlag, EDP Sciences, Elsevier, Carl Hanser Verlag, Hogrefe-Verlag, ICSTI, INSERM, Institute of Physics Publishing, IOS Press, Nature Publishing Group, Oxford University Press, Polish Scientific Publishers, Springer, Taylor & Francis, Thieme, Versita, Wiley-Blackwell, Wolters Kluwer, WHO Our members publish – two-thirds of all journal articles – tens of thousands of books and reference works

5. Publishers & Open Access Goals are entirely compatible – OA maximum dissemination on www – Publishers maximum dissemination in an economically sustainable way Publishers are pragmatic about business models – What works, works – All models must support and maintain academic freedom and quality All STM member publishers do some form of open access

6. STM Publishing Overview 2000+ publishers 20-25,000 journals 1.5 million papers/year 1.2 million authors/year 10+ m readers About US$7.7 billion annual turnover journals Global Thousands of sub disciplines served – Incl. social sciences Institutionally based – Universities – Medical schools – Research organisations – Government laboratories – Corporations

7. STM Market is… Growing – New journals still being launched each year at 3.5% pa by journal title since ~1700 – At 3% pa by article since at least 1980 – No sign of any slow down – China is becoming ever more important Driven by – the growth in number of researchers worldwide more than any other factor

8. Journal Growth 1665-2007 Data from Ulrich’s International Periodicals Directory Total number of active refereed learned journals in 2007: 23,000 [Source: M A Mabe The number and growth of journals Serials 16(2).191-7, 2003]

9. Article Growth 1981-2006 ~3% p.a. ISI Data

10. ISI data analysed by David Tempest

11. Relationship of Journals & Researchers More researchers  more journals

12. Digital is Different! DOMAIN Documents – Infinite reproducibility – Total changeability Organisation – Staff types – Software/hardware Attitudes – “e = free” – “yours = mine” – “public funding = public access” – “(intellectual) property = theft” CHALLENGES Business models Copyright Authority/trust Business models Flexibility Standardisation Copyright Business models

13. Not all journals are the same BMJ, Nature, Science etc. are magazine-journal hybrids (5%) – high circulation, large advertising income – low price Nearly all research journals (95%) – low circulation and no advertising income – high price

14. Not All Journals Are The Same MagazinesHybrid Magazine/ Journals 5% of titles Research Journals 95% of titles Sold toIndividualsIndividuals and institutions Institutions Paying customers 100,000s10,000s100s-1,000s Advertising Income Very highHighNon existent PriceLowLow-mediumHigh Future business models? Mainly single subscription E licensing Single subscription Small minority pay to publish E licensing Database models Pay to publish

15. Open Access Definition – Availability of electronic content to readers without any payment Types “GOLD” – PAY TO PUBLISH OA “GOLD” Final published articles made free via reversing the business model – DELAYED OA Final published articles made free some time after publication “GREEN” – SELF ARCHIVING OA “GREEN” (systematic) self-archiving of peer reviewed author mss (with a delay or embargo)

16. GOLD: Pay to Publish GOLD: Making it Work Final published articles made free via reversing the business model Issues to address – Politics Safeguards for academic freedom National/regional funds to avoid large v small issues Effect on libraries, librarians and funding Copyright about integrity and exploitation not use – Economics Funds allocated for all grant supported work University funds for the rest “Pots of money” to follow authors? New role for RROs and Agents?

17. GOLD: Pay to Publish GOLD: Making it Work Issues to address – Sociology Multiple authorship and funding Role of funders and department heads – Technology Revamp of fulfilment systems, millions of payments rather than thousands

18. GOLD Pay to Publish GOLD: Business Model Issues Global journal revenues 2007 by article: $5133 Free-to-read cannibalizes non subscription revenue – Offprint, back issue, rights income (~15% of current revenues) – Corporate subscription income (~20% of current revenues) Pay-to-publish charges will vary according to rejection rate – mss to be processed (expenses) v papers published (income) At 96% rejection, charge will be 3-4 times that at 30% Charges will have to include allowance for non payment – Only 60% of authors research grant supported – 25% of authors from developing world Current charges far below $5133 and don’t take above factors into account Large research universities will bear most of costs – These costs will exceed current library expenditures Corporate “free riders”

19. Total journal revenues 2007 by article published Non subscription revenue by article published Academic subscription revenue by article published Corporate subscription revenue by article published Derived from Outsell

20. Total journal revenues 2007 by article published Academic subscription revenue by article published GOLD OA “GAP”

21. GOLD Pay to Publish GOLD: Making it Work Barriers to widespread gold adoption: Political issues: academic freedom to publish Structural issues – Funding of universities and libraries – Link between authors and publication funds – Tension between large and small Business model issues – Current pay-to-publish fees too low given effects that widescale adoption would have on revenue streams $2500 and $3000 v “break-even” $5133 average – Variation in fee level will reflect rejection rate: how to afford $15-20,000 for 96%+ rejection titles? – Getting corporates to pay (something) – Replacing non subscription income that is lost

22. DELAYED OA Final published articles made free some time after publication Voluntarily adopted by some publishers where it fits the journal business model Choice of journal made by subject area and business model (not all included) Final published articles made accessible at 6, 12 months etc. through publishers’ website

23. Cumulative percent of lifetime full text downloads Years since publication Chemistry Life Sciences Life Sciences – Rapid usage imprint Mathematics Health Sciences Physics Social Sciences DELAYED OA: Subject Area Issues Twelve months Soc Sci36% Maths40% Chem44% Life Rapid60% Six months Soc Sci28% Maths34% Chem36% Life Rapid50% Eighteen months Soc Sci42% Maths46% Chem50% Life Rapid68% Source: ScienceDirect

24. “GREEN” SELF ARCHIVING OA “GREEN” Archiving of peer reviewed author mss to one or more repositories Done by either – the authors themselves (nonsystematic) Or – the publisher for the author (systematic) In response to either – Author desire to post on website, i.r. etc. Or – Institutional/funding body mandate Timing – Immediately at publication Or – at some period after it (a defined, formal embargo)

25. “GREEN” SELF ARCHIVING OA “GREEN” Some issues – Author self-archiving haphazard and low level Barely 4% do it spontaneously PRO: no threat to journals if haphazard CON: low compliance leads to mandates – Publisher assisted archiving Not all publishers agree PRO: compliance high for Houses that do it CON: overall about 15% coverage – Funding body mandates PRO: 100% compliance CON: systematic re-creation of journal literature for free; multiple versions of unknown status

26. Publisher Investment Stages of Publication Stage OneStage TwoStage Three Primary Outputs of Research: raw data Draft for submission to a journal Author’s draft incorporating peer review enhancements and imprimatur of journal Final published article on journal website: version of record with copyediting, typesetting, full citability, cross-referencing, interlinking with other articles, supplementary data Public Investment

27. Mandates Types – Funded mandates Recognition that Stage 2 Outputs have value (journal branding, peer review) Recognition that very early release forces GOLD OA Preparedness to pay for GOLD OA – Unfunded mandates Demand that Stage 2 Outputs are made freely available with no other payment Belief that this is not parasitic on the journal

28. Mandates Examples – Welcome Trust: 6 months but funded – RCUK: variable and unclear – NIH: 12 months unfunded – ESF: 6 months unfunded – ARC: in discussion but probably funded All policy positions adopted without any clear evidence that they would or would not cause damage

29. The Unfunded Mandate Mandated deposit of peer reviewed content after imposed embargo period – Compulsion – One size fits all – Length of embargo period The unfunded mandate is opposed by all STM publishers – Compulsion to deposit at very short embargo without any compensating payment – Endangers viability of journals, the branding they give articles, the information infrastructure

30. Open Access Experimentation Stage 1 Preprint Stage 2 Peer reviewed mss Stage 3 Final paper Immediate access Raw data and draft manuscripts Most publishers “Nobody pays” Unsystematic Author self archiving “Green” Most publishers Pay to publish trials “Gold” Sponsored journals Some publishers Delayed access Systematic Voluntary deposit in repositories Publisher-selected embargo Journal by journal A few publishers Free access to journal content After publisher chosen embargo A few publishers

31. PEER Project Publishing & Ecology of European Research Proposed collaboration 2008 – 2011 – STM, ESF, Göttingen State and University Library (DRIVER), INRIA, Max Planck Society – EC eContent Plus programme funding likely to be made available Creation of an “observatory” – 300+ journals will allow deposit of Stage 2 materials in European repositories at various embargo periods Some deposit will be publisher assisted – Research into Researcher behaviour Repository and publisher management issues Downloads from journals and repositories Economic issues Will help provide evidence on the effects of variable embargoes to stakeholders Start date: 1 September 2008

32. QUO VADIS? Open Access & STM Publishers “GOLD” PAY TO PUBLISH OA “GOLD” – Final published articles made free via reversing the business model DELAYED OA – Final published articles made free some time after publication “GREEN” SELF ARCHIVING OA “GREEN” self-archiving of peer reviewed author mss UNFUNDED MANDATES

33. FINIS PLACETNE VOBIS INTERROGATIONES!