1. The HST-JWST Transition Plan End-of-life for HST Implementation of JWST Steven Beckwith Space Telescope Science Institute

2. 7/31/032 HST high impact science  Anticipated science 2.Distance scale: H 0  Diffraction-limited optics  Imaging sensitivity 3.Black holes in galaxies  Spectroscopy at diffract. limit 4.AGN emission lines  UV spectroscopy at diff. limit 5.QSO host galaxies  Diffraction-limited optics  High contrast imaging 7.IGM/ISM (QAL)  UV spectroscopy Dark energy Young galaxies HD 209458b Aurorae on Jupiter Young planets  Unanticipated science 1.Galaxy formation: the HDF  Diffraction-limited optics  Imaging sensitivity 6.Dark energy: SN Ia &   Diffraction-limited optics 8.  -ray bursts: host galaxies  Diffraction-limited optics 9.Planet formation: disks  Diffraction-limited optics  High contrast imaging 10.Extra-solar planets  Photometric stability  Spectroscopic stability

3. 7/31/033 Contributions to World Discoveries and Technological Achievements World wideSpace Science NASA HST Space Science NASA (OF THIS) HST accounted for 33% of all NASA discoveries in 2002 2002 Science News Metrics

4. 7/31/034 Cumulative news references

5. 7/31/035 The HST-JWST Transition  NASA’s previous plan: – Launch JWST in 2007 – De-orbit HST in 2010 on a shuttle return mission Provides a 3-4 year science overlap Makes use of a planned shuttle flight in 2010 Allows continued HST operations in case of problems with JWST  This plan has changed: – HST may not continue to operate usefully from SM4 until 2010 – The Columbia accident highlights risks of a retrieval mission  Events that impact science toward the end of the decade: – JWST launch date is now planned for 2011 – JWST has less optical capability than originally assumed – Each instrument upgrade has made Hubble a new science mission

6. 7/31/036 Considerations  Congress recognizes the potential need for additional HST support – The benefits of extending HST should be judged on the merits of the science it will enable – We have an opportunity to enhance science without impacting NASA’s current plans for new projects  Unique Hubble capabilities provide compelling science opportunities until 2010 and beyond – Dark energy, dark matter, and exo-planets can be addressed with Hubble, with or without new instrument(s) after SM4 – Hubble has not reached the limit of its capabilities It is still possible to improve Hubble by >10x – There is still time for a careful review of the cost/benefit to science of extending the use of Hubble; Hubble is currently producing 33% of NASA’s results for <2% of the budget.

7. 7/31/037 HST future science  “Local” neighborhood Exo-planet detection and characterizationExo-planet detection and characterization Na, H 2 O, CO in 5-10 exo- planet atmospheresNa, H 2 O, CO in 5-10 exo- planet atmospheres Direct imaging of exo-planetsDirect imaging of exo-planets Nature of MACHO sourcesNature of MACHO sources  Diffraction-limited optics  High contrast imaging Mass of Galactic black holesMass of Galactic black holes History of star formation in the Local GroupHistory of star formation in the Local Group  “Distant” universe Dark matter in dwarf spheroidals Tests of galaxy-halo formation Reverberation mapping of accretion flows near BH event horizons Large-scale structure of the IGM Galaxy formation in clusters to z~8 Weak lensing of dark matter halos, 0 < z < 2 Dark energy: does dark energy result from  ?

8. 7/31/038 Congressional appropriations language “The conferees commend NASA for the continued success of the Hubble Space Telescope and the extraordinary contributions it has made to the advancement of science… The current situation may also require additional funding for HST. The conferees direct the program manager to maintain the current schedule for NGST development and not reduce NGST funds to cover HST shortfalls. The conferees direct NASA to carry out an in-depth study of an additional servicing mission (SM5) in the 2007 timeframe that would study operating HST until the Webb Telescope becomes operational. The study should address the costs of an additional servicing mission and the potential scientific benefits. Further, the conferees direct NASA to study the means for disposing of Hubble following the deployment of the Webb Telescope in the 2010 timeframe. This study should examine the full range of options for disposal of the Hubble including relative costs and mission constraints.” FY03 Joint-Conference Report, H.J. Res. 2, Feb. 13, 2003

9. Hubble’s Impact Measures of scientific and public impact that indicate Hubble’s strategic importance to NASA and public support for research

10. 7/31/0310 Contributions to World Discoveries and Technological Achievements World wideSpace Science NASA HST Space Science NASA (OF THIS) HST accounted for 33% of all NASA discoveries in 2002 2002 Science News Metrics

11. 7/31/0311 Scientific productivity of Hubble

12. 7/31/0312 Papers per year Publication Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 199019952000 launch HST publication rates

13. 7/31/0313 HST high impact science  Anticipated science 2.Distance scale: H 0  Diffraction-limited optics  Imaging sensitivity 3.Black holes in galaxies  Spectroscopy at diffract. limit 4.AGN emission lines  UV spectroscopy at diff. limit 5.QSO host galaxies  Diffraction-limited optics  High contrast imaging 7.IGM/ISM (QAL)  UV spectroscopy Dark energy Young galaxies HD 209458b Aurorae on Jupiter Young planets  Unanticipated science 1.Galaxy formation: the HDF  Diffraction-limited optics  Imaging sensitivity 6.Dark energy: SN Ia &   Diffraction-limited optics 8.  -ray bursts: host galaxies  Diffraction-limited optics 9.Planet formation: disks  Diffraction-limited optics  High contrast imaging 10.Extra-solar planets  Photometric stability  Spectroscopic stability

14. 7/31/0314 News references to observatories, 6/03 Cumulative News References for Space

15. 7/31/0315 Hubble Oversubscription Rate NICMOS ends SM 2: STIS NICMOS SM 3b: ACS NCS

16. Hubble’s Evolution Improvements in science and telescope capability through servicing missions

17. 7/31/0317 Imaging Instrument cost & capability base WF/PC1WF/PC2ACSWFC3NICMOS Instrument Cost Speed (QE x pixels) 0 100 Cost (M$) 100 200 Speed of observation 200

18. 7/31/0318 Detector evolution

19. 7/31/0319 Improvements in science capabilities

20. 7/31/0320 Science Data Volume over time

21. 7/31/0321 Spacecraft capability ParameterLaunch4/1990SM112/1993SM22/1997SM3A12/1999SM3b4/2002SM4*2005 Total power (W) 249524952270215028352770 Power to instruments (W) 108011901035100017601640 Power req’d by instr. (W) 50046569065512601505 Pointing jitter, all sources (mas) 3923 No chg. 14 Pointing jitter, once/orbit (mas) 3621 No chg. 6 No chg Data storage capacity (Gb) 3 No chg. 1221 Computer power (MIPS) 0.44.6 No chg. 91

22. 7/31/0322 Improvements in HST power

23. 7/31/0323 Improvements in HST stability Red: pre-SM3b disturbance responses (SA2) Black: post-SM 3b disturbance responses (SA3)

24. Options for Hubble End-of-Mission Program changes Options to boost/de-orbit

25. 7/31/0325 Current plans for Hubble mission

26. 7/31/0326 Hubble Orbital Lifetime No additional reboosts 4 mile reboost in 2005 (SM4) 10 mile reboost in 2009 (no reboost in 2005) Re-entry date Worst case Nominal case Solar cycle Dec 2013 Dec 2022 Dec 2015 Apr 2024 Jun 2020 >2028 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Altitude km 6/22/03 6/22/056/22/076/22/09 6/22/11 6/22/136/22/156/22/176/22/196/22/21 HST Altitude Decay: Nominal case Cycle 24 + 2s Cycle 25 Schatten Predictions (11/2002) 10 km reboost no reboost

27. 7/31/0327 Hubble Component Lifetimes Component R 6yr FGS & FGE 0.70 Data Management Unit 0.73 Rate Gyro 0.80 Reaction Wheel Assembly 0.85 Solid State Recorder 0.86 PDU (Distribution) 0.90 EP/TCE0.91 Power Control Unit 0.92 SIC & DH (NSSI-1) 0.94 Solar Array Electronics Control 0.95

28. 7/31/0328 Dark Energy Dark energy: SN Ia  UWFI: 1000 SN Ia (1 yr HST)  Simultaneous  m to ~5%, distinguish  (w x = -1) or exotic dark energy (w x > -1)  Test systematics (is universe really accelerating?) UWFI FOV ~10 ’ x10 ’ ; 9x ACS area; 15x WFC3 IR HST with WFI: ~1000 SN Ia post 2010 Provides strong test of universal acceleration Instr.#SNt(yr)  w (%) Now 40 4 25 ACS 200 1 10 WFI1000 1 5

29. 7/31/0329 CODEX capabilities

30. 7/31/0330 3 hours IngressEclipseEgress Exo-planet atmospheres Giant exo-planets:  Several planets around bright (m V < 10 m ) stars  HST provides only way to study atmospheres (requires a few hundred orbits per candidate) STIS spectroscopy of HD 209458b atmosphere HST is unique for the study of eclipsing exo-planet atmospheres.

31. Future enhancements Notes on technical, scientific, and funding possibilities

32. 7/31/0332 HST’s focal plane

33. 7/31/0333 Wide Field Imager: 90 sq. min. ACS WFI N E

34. 7/31/0334 Anticipated science from Hubble  Extra-solar planets (eclipses)  Photometry & spectrosc. stability  High contrast imaging  Dark energy (SN Ia)  Diffraction-limited optics  Imaging sensitivity  Galaxy formation & evolution  Diffraction-limited optics  Imaging sensitivity  Dark Matter: gravity lensing  Diffraction-limited optics  Distance scale (Cepheids)  Astrometric precision  Long temporal coverage  Age of the Galaxy  Diffraction-limited optics GALEX HST (ACS) 8m ground (Gemini) HST-WFC3 SNAP JWST Imaging: /  = 5 10  in 10 ksec GALEX HST (STIS) 8m ground (Gemini) JWST Spectra: /  = 1000 10  in 10 ksec Wavelength (  m) 10 -16 10 -14 10 -12 10 -18 10 -16 10 -14 F (erg/s/cm 2 ) 0.1 0.5 12 5

35. 7/31/0335 Current HST capabilities in imaging

36. JWST Plans Current evolution of capabilities, development plans, schedule confidence

37. The JWST Replan NASA HQ Challenge:  1.6B development cap  Tight FY03-FY07 budgets  Launch in 2010-11  STScI as Operations Center Replan Conclusions (April ‘03)  ESA to provide Ariane V  6-m primary (18 or 36 segments)  CSA NIRCam parts moved to FGS  All 3 instruments still alive and well.  Reshuffling of responsibilities Ariane V 29.4 m 2 25 m 2

38. 7/31/0338 JWST Schedule (approximate)  2003: Reviews, Mirror & detector selected, SRR, PRD starts  2004: Mirror manufacture begins, detailed designs  2005: NAR, instruments begin construction  2006: CDR, Science Ops System s/w dev. starts  2007: SI testing, flight computer delivered  2008: Mirror, Science Instruments, B1 sci ops delivered  2009: SI testing @ GSFC, Mirror at Plumbrook, B2 sci ops  2010: Thermal Vac, End-to-end spacecraft tests  2011: Launch, August 2011  2012: Science starts Feb: 2012

39. 7/31/0339 JWST Schedule Confidence  Average delay after C/D start is 1.8 years  JWST is 3 years from C/D start  JWST schedule is aggressive in 2/3 of other categories. Assumes HST would have launched in Fall 1986 except for Challenger; assumes SIRTF Launch in August 2003 From these data, we may expect ~2 year delay in JWST launch compared to the current plan.