1. Chapter 6 Nonmarital and Teen Fertility facts and trends causes consequences facts and trends causes consequences

2. I. Data trends: nonmarital births nonmarital fertility rate  # births to unmarried women per 1000 women, age 15-44 nonmarital birth ratio  births to unmarried mothers as a % of all births nonmarital fertility rate  # births to unmarried women per 1000 women, age 15-44 nonmarital birth ratio  births to unmarried mothers as a % of all births

3. 1940  4% of births nonmarital 2001  33.5% of births nonmarital 1940  4% of births nonmarital 2001  33.5% of births nonmarital

6. data: teen fertility 1960s  most teen births are to young married mothers pressure for marriage abortion illegal 1960s  most teen births are to young married mothers pressure for marriage abortion illegal

7. today:  today most teen births are nonmarital  BUT  most nonmarital births are NOT to teenage mothers today:  today most teen births are nonmarital  BUT  most nonmarital births are NOT to teenage mothers

11. II. Causes focus on teen fertility  welfare  marriage prospects  abortion & contraception  wages & social change focus on teen fertility  welfare  marriage prospects  abortion & contraception  wages & social change

12. The role of welfare & marriage opportunities recall AFDC  cash benefits to single mothers  only attractive to low income HH recall AFDC  cash benefits to single mothers  only attractive to low income HH

13. rational choice model compare utility  with teen birth = U* TB  without teen birth = U* N  considers impact on education, work, marriage, income compare utility  with teen birth = U* TB  without teen birth = U* N  considers impact on education, work, marriage, income

14. If U* TB > U* N  then a teen birth is likely If U* TB < U* N  then a teen birth is not likely If U* TB > U* N  then a teen birth is likely If U* TB < U* N  then a teen birth is not likely

15. does more generous welfare lead to more teen births  across states?  over time? does more generous welfare lead to more teen births  across states?  over time?

16. evidenceevidence compare teen fertility across states:  teen fertility rate is NOT higher in states where benefits are higher  figure 6.6 compare teen fertility across states:  teen fertility rate is NOT higher in states where benefits are higher  figure 6.6

17. compare teen fertility to AFDC benefits over time  real AFDC benefits fell 1975-95  but teen nonmarital fertility rose at same time  figure 6.7 compare teen fertility to AFDC benefits over time  real AFDC benefits fell 1975-95  but teen nonmarital fertility rose at same time  figure 6.7

18. conclusions  AFDC $ has little or no impact on probability of teen birth  potential future income has a small negative impact on probability of teen birth  both effects are small too small to explain changes conclusions  AFDC $ has little or no impact on probability of teen birth  potential future income has a small negative impact on probability of teen birth  both effects are small too small to explain changes

19. Abortion & Contraception we observe:  big decline in the “shotgun” marriage since 1960 explains over 50% of increase in nonmarital birth ratio we observe:  big decline in the “shotgun” marriage since 1960 explains over 50% of increase in nonmarital birth ratio

20. game theory approach describe behavior of men & women  difference preferences  jointly determine outcome describe behavior of men & women  difference preferences  jointly determine outcome

21. preferences (w/out abor., cont.) Men 1.sex w/out marriage promise 2.sex w/ marriage 3.no sex Men 1.sex w/out marriage promise 2.sex w/ marriage 3.no sex

22. Type I Women  cost of pregnancy high 1.sex w/ promise 2.no sex 3.sex w/out promise Type I Women  cost of pregnancy high 1.sex w/ promise 2.no sex 3.sex w/out promise

23. Type II Women  pregnancy wanted or low cost 1.sex w/promise 2.sex w/out promise 3.no sex Type II Women  pregnancy wanted or low cost 1.sex w/promise 2.sex w/out promise 3.no sex

24. what will happen? Type I women will not have sex w/out a promise  men can promise  men can refuse to promise and try to find Type II women  but men would rather promise than go without Type I women will not have sex w/out a promise  men can promise  men can refuse to promise and try to find Type II women  but men would rather promise than go without

25. if there are few Type II women (20%)  men will end of promising  & Type II women will demand promises knowing men will give them result: a lot of shotgun marriages if there are few Type II women (20%)  men will end of promising  & Type II women will demand promises knowing men will give them result: a lot of shotgun marriages

26. with abortion, contraception Type I women will use this  no long insist on promise,  men no longer offer the promise,  Type II women can no longer demand the promise result: fewer shotgun weddings, rising nonmarital birth ratio Type I women will use this  no long insist on promise,  men no longer offer the promise,  Type II women can no longer demand the promise result: fewer shotgun weddings, rising nonmarital birth ratio

27. WagesWages rising real wages for women single parenting more of an option true for older women more than teens rising real wages for women single parenting more of an option true for older women more than teens

28. cohabitationcohabitation a substitute for marital childbearing  (a common substitute in Europe) BUT, not a perfect substitute  non marital relationships are less stable a substitute for marital childbearing  (a common substitute in Europe) BUT, not a perfect substitute  non marital relationships are less stable

29. other factors many sociological factors that economics does not model well…

30. declining social stigma of single motherhood greater acceptance, particularly for older women resources for teen mothers  daycare, programs in special high schools greater acceptance, particularly for older women resources for teen mothers  daycare, programs in special high schools

31. status of motherhood for teens w/ little else, motherhood gives  identity as “mother”  self-esteem, unconditional love  attention for teens w/ little else, motherhood gives  identity as “mother”  self-esteem, unconditional love  attention

32. III. Consequences studies show teen mothers fare worse than teens who do not give birth:  lower incomes  lower education level  less likely to be married  less likely to be employed studies show teen mothers fare worse than teens who do not give birth:  lower incomes  lower education level  less likely to be married  less likely to be employed

34. but why?  because they gave birth?  or other factors cause both teen births and poor outcomes? but why?  because they gave birth?  or other factors cause both teen births and poor outcomes?

35. early studies control for measurable differences in teens  family income, parent’s education, race…  still find negative effects due to a teen birth (but smaller) control for measurable differences in teens  family income, parent’s education, race…  still find negative effects due to a teen birth (but smaller)

36. problem w/ early studies certain unmeasured factors course affect  likelihood of teen birth AND  life outcomes examples:  parental involvement, attitudes certain unmeasured factors course affect  likelihood of teen birth AND  life outcomes examples:  parental involvement, attitudes

37. as a result,  the impact of teen birth appears larger than it really is as a result,  the impact of teen birth appears larger than it really is

38. later studies control for this bias compare sisters  one is teen mother, one is not compare teen mothers  single birth to twins compare teen mothers to teens who miscarry their pregnancy compare sisters  one is teen mother, one is not compare teen mothers  single birth to twins compare teen mothers to teens who miscarry their pregnancy

39. sister studies teen births 1975-85 effects of teen births still significantly negative  but less negative than earlier studies teen births 1975-85 effects of teen births still significantly negative  but less negative than earlier studies

40. twins vs. single birth negative but small effect to having twins but 1vs. 2 children NOT the same as 0 vs. 1 child underestimates effect negative but small effect to having twins but 1vs. 2 children NOT the same as 0 vs. 1 child underestimates effect

41. miscarriage study most controversial teen mothers did BETTER than teens who miscarried by mid-20s most controversial teen mothers did BETTER than teens who miscarried by mid-20s

42. problems  underreporting of miscarriages especially among women who go on to do well  many in the miscarry group went on to be teen mothers  miscarriage itself may cause negative effects problems  underreporting of miscarriages especially among women who go on to do well  many in the miscarry group went on to be teen mothers  miscarriage itself may cause negative effects

43. conclusionconclusion poor outcomes of teen mothers due to many factors, not just birth policy needs to address all factors, not just teen pregnancy poor outcomes of teen mothers due to many factors, not just birth policy needs to address all factors, not just teen pregnancy