2. PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN KEUANGAN Pertemuan 25
Matakuliah : <<Manajemen Keuangan>>
Tahun : <<2009>>
PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN KEUANGAN Pertemuan 25

3. Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini diharapkan :
Mahasiswa dapat menunjukkan hubungan pembiayaan internal dan eksternal ketika membuat ramalan dan perencanaan keuangan.
Bina Nusantara University

4. Outline Materi Forecasting sales
Projecting the assets and internally generated funds
Projecting outside funds needed
Deciding how to raise funds
Bina Nusantara University

5. Preliminary financial forecast: Balance sheets (Assets)
2005
2006E
Cash and equivalents
$ 20
$ 25
Accounts receivable
240
300
Inventories
Total current assets
$ 500
$ 625
Net fixed assets
500
625
Total assets
$1,000
$1,250
Bina Nusantara University

6. Preliminary financial forecast: Balance sheets (Liabilities and equity)
2005
2006E
Accts payable & accrued liab.
$ 100
$ 125
Notes payable
100
190
Total current liabilities
200
315
Long-term debt
Common stock
500
Retained earnings
245
Total liabilities & equity
$1,000
$1,250
Bina Nusantara University

7. Preliminary financial forecast: Income statements
2005
2006E
Sales
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
Less: Variable costs
1,200.0
1,500.0
Fixed costs
700.0
875.0
EBIT
$100.0
$125.0
Interest
16.0
EBT
$84.0
$109.0
Taxes (40%)
33.6
43.6
Net income
$50.4
$65.40
Dividends (30% of NI)
$15.12
$19.62
Addition to retained earnings
$35.28
$45.78
Bina Nusantara University

8. Key financial ratios 2005 2006E Ind Avg Comment Basic earning power
10.00%
20.00%
Poor
Profit margin
2.52%
2.62%
4.00%
Return on equity
7.20%
8.77%
15.60%
Days sales outstanding
43.8 days
32.0 days
Inventory turnover
8.33x
11.00x
Fixed assets turnover
4.00x
5.00x
Total assets turnover
2.00x
2.50x
Debt/assets
30.00%
40.34%
36.00% OK
Times interest earned
6.25x
7.81x
9.40x
Current ratio
1.99x
3.00x
Payout ratio
Bina Nusantara University

9. Key assumptions in preliminary financial forecast for NWC
Operating at full capacity in 2005.
Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales.
Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales.
2005 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be maintained.
Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%DS = 25%)
Bina Nusantara University

10. Determining additional funds needed, using the AFN equation
AFN = (A*/S0)ΔS – (L*/S0) ΔS – M(S1)(RR) = ($1,000/$2,000)($500) – ($100/$2,000)($500) – ($2,500)(0.7) = $180.9 million.
Bina Nusantara University

11. Management’s review of the financial forecast
Consultation with some key managers has yielded the following revisions:
Firm expects customers to pay quicker next year, thus reducing DSO to 34 days without affecting sales.
A new facility will boost the firm’s net fixed assets to $700 million.
New inventory system to increase the firm’s inventory turnover to 10x, without affecting sales.
These changes will lead to adjustments in the firm’s assets and will have no effect on the firm’s liabilities on equity section of the balance sheet or its income statement.
Bina Nusantara University

12. Revised (final) financial forecast: Balance sheets (Assets)
2005
2006E
Cash and equivalents
$ 20
$ 67
Accounts receivable
240
233
Inventories
250
Total current assets
$ 500
$ 550
Net fixed assets
500
700
Total assets
$1,000
$1,250
Bina Nusantara University

13. Key financial ratios – final forecast
2005
2006F
Ind Avg
Comment
Basic earning power
10.00%
20.00%
Poor
Profit margin
2.52%
2.62%
4.00%
Return on equity
7.20%
8.77%
15.60%
Days sales outstanding
43.8 days
34.0 days
32.0 days OK
Inventory turnover
8.33x
10.00x
11.00x
Fixed assets turnover
4.00x
3.57x
5.00x
Total assets turnover
2.00x
2.50x
Debt/assets
30.00%
40.34%
36.00%
Times interest earned
6.25x
7.81x
9.40x
Current ratio
1.75x
3.00x
Payout ratio
Bina Nusantara University

14. What was the net investment in operating capital?
OC2006 = NOWC + Net FA
= $625 - $125 + $ = $1,125
OC2005 = $900
Net investment in OC = $1,125 - $900
= $225
Bina Nusantara University

15. How much free cash flow is expected to be generated in 2006?
FCF = NOPAT – Net inv. in OC
= EBIT (1 – T) – Net inv. in OC
= $125 (0.6) – $225
= $75 – $225
= -$150.
Bina Nusantara University

16. Suppose fixed assets had only been operating at 85% of capacity in 2005
The maximum amount of sales that can be supported by the 2005 level of assets is:
Capacity sales = Actual sales / % of capacity
= $2,000 / 0.85 = $2,353
2006 forecast sales exceed the capacity sales, so new fixed assets are required to support 2006 sales.
Bina Nusantara University

17. How can excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios?
Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would improve.
Less new debt, hence lower interest and higher profits
EPS, ROE, debt ratio, and TIE would improve.
Bina Nusantara University

18. How would the following items affect the AFN?
Higher dividend payout ratio?
Increase AFN: Less retained earnings.
Higher profit margin?
Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained earnings.
Higher capital intensity ratio?
Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales.
Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days?
Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital (i.e., L*/S0 increases).
Bina Nusantara University

19. Closing
Peramalan laporan keuangan adalah bagian penting dari proses perencanaan keuangan. Baik investor maupun perusahaan secara teratur menggunakan teknik peramalan untuk membantu penentuan nilai saham perusahaan.
Bina Nusantara University