1. Quantitative Research and Analytics, Proprietary and Confidential1 Ryan Michaluk rmick@allstate.com

2. Introduction to Skytree Quantitative Research and Analytics Since 2012 Leading Platform for ML on Big Data

3. Data Size Model Complexity Some laws of data science Quantitative Research and Analytics Predictive Accuracy # of Iterations

4. Data Size Model Complexity Some laws of data science Quantitative Research and Analytics Predictive Accuracy # of Iterations But: Computation Time

5. Data Size Model Complexity Computation Time Some laws of data science Quantitative Research and Analytics Predictive Accuracy # of Iterations

6. Allstate - We are … Quantitative Research and Analytics Largest public personal lines insurer in US 16 million households 40,000 employees 11,000 agencies 4 brands Auto, home, life, retirement

7. Quotes – personal, item, offer Policies – personal, item, history Claims – loss, participant, repair, adjuster notes Telematics – events, mileage Agencies – policy, sales, region, internal Data is the foundation of our business Quantitative Research and Analytics

8. Pricing Fraud Prevention Underwriting Marketing Customer Experience Data drives our decisions Quantitative Research and Analytics

9. Pricing Fraud Prevention Underwriting Marketing Customer Experience Make the best possible decisions Data drives our decisions Quantitative Research and Analytics

10. Statistical models that find patterns Descriptive (good) What happened Predictive (better) What will happen Prescriptive (best) What action will produce the best outcome What is machine learning Quantitative Research and Analytics

11. Action Predictive Model Result Predictive model Quantitative Research and Analytics

12. Best Result Do This Prescriptive model Quantitative Research and Analytics Action Predictive Model Result

13. Make data driven decisions Adapt to change Power scales with amount of data Machine learning has many benefits Quantitative Research and Analytics

14. Data Challenges - accessible, usable Resource Challenges - people, tools, time Cultural Challenges - information is valuable, algorithms are useful … but can be difficult to implement Quantitative Research and Analytics

15. Machine learning creates a big impact Quantitative Research and Analytics

16. Machine learning creates a big impact Quantitative Research and Analytics Improvement comparable to including the most important variable

17. Better algorithms take more time GLM Random Forest GBM K-Means Topological Methods More data takes more time Machine learning is a process Machine learning is hard Quantitative Research and Analytics

18. Change Parameters Build Model Validate Model Model Development Cycle Machine learning is iterative Quantitative Research and Analytics

19. Data Size Model Complexity Iteration Time Computation Speed Iteration Time # of Iterations Data Scientist Time Data scientist time Quantitative Research and Analytics

20.  Avoid hard / large problems  Reduce data size  Reduce model complexity  Reduce # of iterations Increase computation speed Reducing time requires tradeoffs Quantitative Research and Analytics

21.  Avoid hard / large problems  Reduce data size  Reduce model complexity  Reduce # of iterations Increase computation speed Reducing time requires tradeoffs Quantitative Research and Analytics Machine Learning on Hadoop

22. Challenges exist Algorithms don’t parallelize easily More than just model training Options Build your own Exactly what you want, maybe Really hard Large opportunity cost Vended solution Is ML on Hadoop right for you Quantitative Research and Analytics

23. Bring ML to data Scalable ML environment Improve existing solutions Tackle new projects Data scientists have more time to solve problems ML on Hadoop is right for Allstate Quantitative Research and Analytics

24. ML on Hadoop is right for Allstate Quantitative Research and Analytics Good for the Business Good for Data Scientists

25. Questions Quantitative Research and Analytics