1. Research on urban mileage of personal vehicles Professor : Kaibo Wang Caleb Hou 2009210525 Huifan Xi 2009210137 Guangpu Lei 2009210135 Mathew 2009280134 Final Presentation Group 4

2. Outline Research Goal Background Mileage Analysis Market Analysis Conclusion

3. Target Research goal: Which kind of micro car can be put in the market Research on: Urban mileage of personal vehicles Electric micro car market information  Survey among 500 randomly chosen people in Beijing

4. Background Desires of mankind: Relieve traffic load of cities Reduce gasoline consumption Traffic in Beijing: Average speed of 25 km/h Highest speed limit 100 km/h (5 th ring)

5. Data Analysis Mileage analysis: Descriptive analysis on results of the survey Daily mileage distribution analysis Relation of daily and annual mileage Micro car market analysis: Descriptive analysis on results of the Survey Analysis whether like or dislike micro cars Analysis on the expected price

6. Mileage: Variables Variable NameDescription(unit)Notes DMDaily Mileage(km)Continuous TTSTransportation Type for Short distanceDiscrete VTVehicle TypeDiscrete AMAnnual Mileage(km)Continuous GCGasoline Consumption per 100Km(L)Continuous GGender of the respondentDiscrete binary DADriving Age of the respondent(yr)Continuous OCOccupation of the respondentDiscrete ELEducation Level of the respondentDiscrete FIFamily Income per monthDiscrete

7. Daily Mileage Distribution Capacity of 100 km per charge -> How many users can be satisfied Mileage Percentage of sample Percentage of approximate distribution 3050.000%42.328% 5074.691%66.180% 7081.070%79.383% 10095.062%89.368% Current electric micro car: satisfies 95% of car owners -> only charge at night Half of drivers -> one charge in 3 days

8. Daily Mileage Analysis 一般线性模型 : DM 与 TTS, VT, G, EL, OC, FI 来源 自由度 Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P TTS 4 12815 14427 3607 2.49 0.043 VT 2 1715 1044 522 0.36 0.698 GC 1 11538 14230 14230 9.81 0.002 G 1 1332 1227 1227 0.85 0.358 DA 1 298 80 80 0.06 0.814 EL 4 4683 4300 1075 0.74 0.564 OC 10 24750 23706 2371 1.63 0.094 FI 4 9457 9457 2364 1.63 0.166 误差 436 632463 632463 1451 合计 463 699052 S = 38.0868 R-Sq = 9.53% R-Sq （调整） = 3.92%

9. Daily Mileage Analysis (Cont‘d) GC is continuous with negative coefficient car owners with a high GC travels less than the ones with a low GC

10. Relation Of Daily & Annual Mileage Annual Mileage ≠ Daily Mileage * 365 回归分析 : AM 与 DM 回归方程为 AM = 1228 + 221 DM 自变量 系数 准误 T P 常量 1227.9 355.0 3.46 0.001 DM 221.230 6.128 36.10 0.000 S = 4715.85 R-Sq = 74.2% R-Sq （调整） = 74.1% Explanation: People travel 221 days per year as routine  legal work days: 251 days per year Long distance travel of 1228 km  e.g. Holiday or business trip

11. Market Analysis: Variables Variable NameDescriptionNotes LORNLike the micro car OR NotDiscrete SNSeats Number preferredDiscrete SThe Size of micro carDiscrete PPrice for a micro carContinuous EORNElectricity driven OR NotDiscrete CTCharge type for electric vehicleDiscrete FC1 1 ST important Factors Concerned when purchasing a micro car Discrete FC2 2 nd important Factors Concerned when purchasing a micro car Discrete

12. Market Analysis: Results

13. Further Market Analysis Variables Variable NameDescriptionNotes TPTravel PurposeDiscrete TTSTransportation Type for Short distanceDiscrete VTVehicle TypeDiscrete DMDaily MileageContinuous GCGasoline Consumption per 100KmContinuous URPUrban Road Proportion per dayContinuous GGender of the respondentDiscrete binary DADriving Age of the respondentContinuous ELEducation Level of the respondentDiscrete OCOccupation of the respondentDiscrete FIFamily Income per monthDiscrete

14. Further Analysis On LORN Regression Analysis on LORN -> only VT influences LORN (only p-value < 0.05) micro car owners : 60.3% impact car owners: 61.1% others: 67.9%

15. Market Analysis: Results (Cont‘d) 1 st most important factors: Mileage capacity Safety 2 nd most important factors: Velocity Power

16. Expected Price Analysis 下四分 上四分 变量 合计数 N N* 平均值 标准差 最小值 位数 中位数 位数 最大值 P 504 501 3 4.749 3.417 1.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 26.000 Average expected price: 47,000 yuan 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan

17. Further Market Analysis Variables Variable NameDescriptionNotes TPTravel PurposeDiscrete TTSTransportation Type for Short distanceDiscrete VTVehicle TypeDiscrete DMDaily MileageContinuous GCGasoline Consumption per 100KmContinuous URPUrban Road Proportion per dayContinuous GGender of the respondentDiscrete binary DADriving Age of the respondentContinuous ELEducation Level of the respondentDiscrete OCOccupation of the respondentDiscrete FIFamily Income per monthDiscrete

18. Further Analysis On Price General Linear Model: Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P 出行目的 4 92.58 93.17 23.29 1.13 0.344 短途交通 4 96.99 120.17 30.04 1.45 0.216 汽车类型 2 131.89 169.22 84.61 4.09 0.017 日驶里程 1 28.21 70.67 70.67 3.41 0.065 单位耗油 1 37.54 58.53 58.53 2.83 0.093 市区比例 1 25.16 19.59 19.59 0.95 0.331 性别 1 64.29 61.76 61.76 2.98 0.085 驾龄 1 22.44 20.72 20.72 1.00 0.318 教育程度 4 20.08 9.74 2.43 0.12 0.976 职务 10 228.83 217.33 21.73 1.05 0.400 家庭月收入 4 51.15 51.15 12.79 0.62 0.650 Error 438 9066.75 9066.75 20.70 Total 471 9865.91 S = 4.54976 R-Sq = 8.10% R-Sq(adj) = 1.18% Term Coef SE Coef T P 汽车类型 1 -0.8881 0.4215 -2.11 0.036 2 -0.0771 0.3082 -0.25 0.803

19. Further Analysis On Price (Cont‘d) Main effect plot: clear positive trend as current car size goes up -> probably occurred by financial condition

20. Conclusion 75% of citizens: routine mileage less than 50 km Most people accept micro cars 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan