2 Global Chemical Industry shift from Developed economies to Developing economies Asia Pacific (including China) to gain from this shiftComplexities in China to help India becoming a manufacturing hub.
7 US / North America ( Natural Soda Ash ) Global OverviewChinaTotal capacity touches 32 Million Tons which is 10 times of India's soda ash production capacity.Production around 25 Mil Mt . Cap Utilisation 77/78%Despite excess glass capacity in China the capacity build up continues, a total of 245 flat glass lines operating in China, where there are only 7 in India.With the slow down in Chinese Economy there is a marginal softening of prices.Remains the major threat for India .US / North America ( Natural Soda Ash )Production reaches 11.5 Million MT . Domestic demand grows by only 1%Exports grow by 5% mainly to Asia & South America .The US producers ie. Tata/ Nirma have diverted some volumes to India in current yearNatural SA has a huge cost advantage over the conventional process making the US producers competitive globally.
8 AFRICA, ASIA & MIDDLE EAST Global – OverviewEuropeTotal capacity is 12 MMT produced in 25 plants in 15 countries including Turkey.IHS forecasts that after a 0.4% decline in 2013, Euro-zone real GDP will increase 1.1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015.Cost pressures forced Soda Ash plants in UK/Portugal to closure.European producers viz Ciech / Solvay increase export volumes to India as they attract the lowest ADD.Turkey with Natural Soda Ash reserves will be a threat to the rest of the producing countries on account of their cost advantage & locationAFRICA, ASIA & MIDDLE EASTTCL has shutdown their Pure Soda Ash plant at Magadi (Capacity 3.5 Lac MT/annum) due to unsustainable operational cost.Penrice permanently closed its Soda Ash production facility in Australia.Asia led by India is the only area showing growth signs .
9 INDIA 2013-14 INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS India - OverviewINDIA INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTSWhile Domestic Demand in has been flat, growth of 5/6% expected in & + 5% growth predicted going forward.Domestic consumption is approximately 3.1 Million MT ( 2.7 MMT market demand MMt internal ).With a production of only around 2.6 MMT, balance demand met by Imports.China/ US / Europe / Kenya are the major exporters to India , major growth in India is captured by Imports .Flat Glass prices improve as Glass manufacturers get ADD protection on ME / Saudi /Pakistan.Ghari has announced a Soda Ash plant at Village Kuranga – Dwarka . ( Likely to take between 3 to 4 years )Nirma & GHCL also examining expansion .Anti Dumping Duties will be applicable till Mid 2017 hence we have to work our over-all costs to remain competitive going forward .
10 END SECTOR MACRO INDICATOS & PLAYERS : - Mix of Global, National and Regional Players : Fragmented Market.