1. week 2: introduction to foreign policy analysis
U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425
professor timothy c. lim / cal state los angeles

2. introduction to foreign policy analysis the study of foreign policy
review of key points from last week
foreign policy analysis is concerned with a variety of questions: why-questions, who- and what questions, and how-possible questions
foreign policy analysis is interdisciplinary, drawing from a variety of theoretical approaches
there is a special relationship between foreign policy analysis and ir

3. special relationship between IR and foreign policy
introduction to course the study of foreign policy
review: fields relevant to foreign policy
international relations
social psychology
rational choice
comparative politics
public policy
critical theory
others
special relationship between IR and foreign policy

4. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
review: fields relevant to foreign policy
authors also believe that the new radical accounts of IR are important; even more …
their own approach is based on critical political analysis

5. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
so what is critical political analysis?

6. critical political analysis: six points
introduction to course the study of foreign policy
critical political analysis: six points
critical foreign policy analysis should be empirical without being empiricist: norms and subjectivity matter
both structure and agency need to be considered
politics must be viewed broadly; not just what governments do
sensitive to issues of social construction
foreign policy is never simply the “realm of necessity”
being critical does not entail assuming bad faith about leaders

7. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
critical political analysis
“taken together, we believe that a critical approach to foreign policy offers significant potential for looking at foreign policy within a wider notion of politics than has traditionally been the case within FPA” (p. 6)

8. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
confused?
don’t worry (for now). things should become clearer as we proceed.

9. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
some basics

10. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
two basic definitions
foreign policy. the strategy or approach chosen by a national government to achieve its goals in relation with external entities (usually other governments)
foreign policy analysis (FPA). a subfield of political science that seeks to explain foreign policy or foreign policy behavior; FPA is distinguished from IR in its focus on sub-national, actor-specific, and multi-casual and multi-level analysis

11. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
foreign policy analysis is a relatively recent field that stands in sharp contrast to the grand theories of IR (e.g., realism)
three seminal or paradigmatic works
Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics by Richard Snyder
Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy by James Rosenau
Man-Mileau Relationship Hypotheses in the Context of International Politics by Harold and Margaret Sprout 1. 2. 3.

12. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
key lessons
SNYDER. researchers need to look below the nation-state level of analysis to the players involved; focus should be on decision-making process, not just outcomes
ROSENAU. states are not all the same, but there are patterns and similarities among types of states that we can uncover making foreign policy behavior explainable and predictable
SPOUTS. psychological factors (the psycho- mileau) and perceptions are important

13. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
key lessons led to further refinements, focusing on new research pathways …
small group decision-making (“groupthink”)
organizational process and bureaucratic politics
comparative foreign policy
psychological (cognitive) influences
societal milieux

14. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
small group decision-making (“groupthink”)
Refers to the process and structure of groups making foreign policy decisions. Group decision making tends to have its own dynamic, but a particularly important aspect is the tendency by participants to maintain group consensus and personal acceptance. The result is often a deterioration of decision-making quality.

15. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
organizational process and bureaucratic politics
Based on the idea that organizations and bureaucracies have their own interests and compete with other organizations to stay “on top.” Turf battles impact the decision-making process. Organizational dynamics (e.g., standard operating procedures) also shape responses and behavior.

16. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
comparative foreign policy
Focused on foreign policy events on a cross-national basis as a way to analyze and predict foreign policy behavior for all nations for all time. Effort proved less than successful.

17. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
psychological influences on foreign policy
Based on the premise that individual perceptions and cognitive processes had a profound impact on the policy making process. Psychological approaches focused attention on the mind of the foreign policy decision-maker.

18. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
intro: foreign policy analysis
societal milieux and foreign policy
Looked at the overarching social context in which decisions are made: culture, history, geography, economics, political institutions, military power, ideology, demographics, media, and so on. Researchers believed all these factors could play a role in the making of foreign policy.

19. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
foreign policy analysis: contemporary agenda
foreign policy analysis in the post-cold war era is still evolving; there are, however, some clear commitments that most researchers share
commitment to looking below the nation-state level
commitment to build middle-range theory
commitment to pursue multi-causal explanations spanning multiple levels of analysis
commitment to utilize theory and findings from across the spectrum of social science
commitment to viewing the process of foreign policy decision-making (i.e., how policy gets made) as important as the output thereof

20. introduction to course the study of foreign policy
changing gears …
theories of foreign policy

21. introduction to theory the study of foreign policy
general notes about theory: definitions
simply put, theories are explanations of how something or some process works; theories are used to identify cause-and-effect relationships and to make predictions
another definition. a theory is a framework of analysis within which facts are not only selected, but also interpreted, organized, and fit together so that they create a coherent whole
a theory helps us explain or better understand the world in which we live

22. introduction to theory the study of foreign policy
general notes about theory
theories are necessarily simplifications of a more complex whole; theories are not reality, but they are designed to tell use something meaningful and important about the real world

23. introduction to theory the study of foreign policy
general notes about theory: additional points
first, the various theories of foreign policy are not dependent on whether they are accepted or even understood by policy makers themselves
second, theory and practice may be mutually constitutive
third, the theories we study are sometimes compatible, but sometimes contradictory

24. an introduction to realism

25. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
key questions
what is realism?
how is it applied to the analysis and practice of foreign policy
what are the pitfalls in applying realist theories to foreign policy analysis?
what is a useful set of guidelines for avoiding those pitfalls and using realist insights to sharpen the analysis of foreign policy?

26. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
core principles
groupism. humans are divided into groups and humans depend on their own groups for safety and survival
egoism. self-interest ultimately drives political behavior
power-centrism. power is the fundamental feature of politics
to realists, these are all fundamental truths about the the world; they are the rules by which world politics operate. such rules have consequences; they shape human behavior in particular ways

27. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
additional principles
central questions focus on the causes of war and conflict
the structure of the international system is a necessary, but not always sufficient for explaining relations among states
primary unit of analysis is the sovereign state
states are first and foremost guided by national interests defined in terms of power
states are rational, unitary actors

28. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
 the key concept in realism in anarchy
dictionary definition: “absence of government; the state of society where there is no law or supreme power; a state of lawlessness; political confusion.”
in realism, anarchy is not the absence of government per se, but is instead the absence of a sovereign authority that exists above the state. to (many) realists, moreover, the international system is not “confused,” but is governed by a structure of power dominated by the strongest states

29. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
 implications of anarchy
in an anarchic system, an unavoidable logic prevails, one based on the notion,”survival of the fittest.”
in an anarchic world, only the strong survive and prosper; you can only count on yourself for help: friends are friends only when it serves their interests
one of the clearest enunciations of the principles and implications of anarchy can be found in a few good men …

30. Video file intentionally removed
introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
a scene from a few good men: “you can’t handle the truth!”
what is the “truth” that tom cruise’s character cannot handle?
Video file intentionally removed

31. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
theoretical schools within realism
 realism is a diverse school of thought that includes several variants
classical realism
neorealism (or structural realism)
defensive realism (“inside-out” variant)
offensive realism (“hyper-realism”)
neoclassical realism (“foreign policy” realism)

32. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
what is realism?
specific theories within realism
 the diversity of realism is also evident in specific theories of realism
balance of power
balance of threat
hegemonic stability theory
power transition theory

33. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
realism: assumptions, conditions and theories: some caveats
do not confuse assumptions (groupism, egoism, and power- centrism) with scope conditions (anarchy)
anarchy is a variable condition; where it is strongest, the potential for conflict is highest; where it is attenuated, order is stronger
do not confuse assumptions with predictions
conflict is not an assumption, but a prediction: realists predict conflict under certain conditions of anarchy

34. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
using realism in analyzing foreign policy
along with caveats, using realism requires a careful integration of the deductive logic of realist principles and the on-the-ground dynamics of specific and concrete foreign policy situations
integration is key
examples. consider hegemonic stability theory and “anti-US counter-balancing” in the 1990s ----> next slide

35. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
using realism in analyzing foreign policy
example. anti-US counterbalancing
prominent realists, such as waltz, predicted that the collapse of the soviet union would lead to immediate “counterbalancing” against the u.s.
it did not happen, but the failure to “predict” correctly was less a problem with realism and more a problem with a misapplication of realist principles and a failure to consider the “concrete” details of the post-cold war era

36. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
using realism in analyzing foreign policy: key lesson
foreign policy analysts must not be dogmatic realists--or anti- realists. they should know theories without becoming overly committed to any one
the best approach is to embrace a constant dialogue between case expertise and general theory whenever possible
remember this saying …
the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing (Archilochus)

37. introduction to realism chapter 2: realism and foreign policy
using realism in analyzing foreign policy: key lesson
foreign policy analysts should be foxes and not hedgehogs