1. The Economics of Scholarly Communications Michael Jubb Director Research Information Network UKSG Conference Torquay 30-31 March 2009

2. Two Reports Scope The whole research communications cycle, including cash and non-cash costs (essentially time) RIN/CEPA Journals Global JISC/Houghton Journals, books, reports, conference papers, data (?) Focus on UK Models available for others to use to test assumptions, feed in other data etc

3. RIN/CEPA big picture: overall costs of the current system, global

4. RIN/CEPA big picture: overall costs of the current system, UK

5. JISC/Houghton big picture: overall costs of the current system, UK

6. RIN/CEPA publishing and distribution costs, global

7. RIN/CEPA publishing and distribution costs, UK

8. JISC/Houghton publishing and distribution costs, UK

9. How are these costs being met? publishing and distribution see next slide access costs met by libraries and those who fund them search, download and reading costs met by researchers and those who employ them

10. Meeting the costs of publication and distribution, globally (RIN/CEPA) estimates for the system as a whole differences for different types/categories of journal

11. UK contribution to meeting publishing and distribution costs (RIN/CEPA)

12. UK contribution to meeting publishing and distribution costs (JISC/Houghton)

13. So what? RIN role to question how efficient and effective are the information services and resources provided for and used by the UK research community Clearer picture of where major costs arise, and how they are funded, enables us to focus attention on key areas where cost efficiencies are most likely to arise (eg peer review??) analyse the balance of trade between different sectors and different countries (eg UK or EU contribution) develop scenarios of possible changes, and model their impacts both on costs and on how/where those costs are met

14. Three scenarios change over next ten years transition to e-only transition to author- side payment purpose is to model possible changes in costs funding flows benefits changes all expressed in £s; but distinguish between cash costs opportunity costs impact and return on investment

15. Increases in research funding and article production over 10 years: costs Publishing and distribution costs Real terms increase of £1.6bn (25%)

16. Increases in research funding and article production over 10 years: funding Sources of funding and other contributions

17. E-only journal publication, global ~£1bn cost savings, split between publishing/distribu- tion (~5% reduction) access provision (~36% reduction)

18. E-only journal publication, UK Publishing and distribution of UK-authored articles cost savings to publishers of between £21m (RIN) and £45m (JISC) 7-13% of publishing costs assume some of those savings passed on to UK (and overseas) libraries and other subscribers Costs for UK libraries in providing access to global journals and articles cost savings of between £23m (RIN) and £34m (JISC) 33-48% of access costs offset by small rise in user print costs VAT increase c £5m

19. Open access publishing, global

20. Open access publishing, UK: costs Publishing and distribution of UK-authored articles further cost savings to publishers of between £18m (RIN) and £93m (JISC) 6-28% of publishing costs assume some of those savings passed on UK (and overseas) research authors and funders Costs for UK libraries in providing access to global journals and articles further cost savings of between £9m (RIN) and £11m (JISC) 13-16% of access costs

21. Open access publishing, UK: funding savings for UK libraries of c £120m offset by increases for HEIs and other research institutions of between £213m (RIN) and £172m (JISC) in publication fees differentials between institutions transition costs

22. Summary cost changes for the UK

23. Some key messages Publishing, distributing and providing access to serials are pivotal, but only part of the scholarly communications system c5% of the overall costs Much larger costs incurred by readers in search, download and reading Costs (cash and time) are met overwhelmingly by the HE sector Risk that costs will continue to rise in real terms Scope for cash savings, and for improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, across the system and they are not just, or mainly in publication, distribution and access

24. Thank you Michael Jubb Research Information Network www.rin.ac.uk Activities, costs and income flows report available at http://www.rin.ac.uk/costs-funding-flows model at http://www.rin.ac.uk/rin-model/ Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models report available at http://www.jisc.ac.uk/publications/publications/economicpublishingmodelsfinalrepor t.aspx model at http://www.cfses.com/EI-ASPM/SCLCM-V7/