1. Coming Spruce Budworm Outbreak: Initial Risk Assessment and Preparation & Response Recommendations For Maine’s Forestry Community Coming Spruce Budworm Outbreak: Initial Risk Assessment and Preparation & Response Recommendations For Maine’s Forestry Community CFRU Spruce Budworm Workshop UMaine Campus, Orono October 30, 2014 CFRU Spruce Budworm Workshop UMaine Campus, Orono October 30, 2014 Robert G. Wagner CFRU Director Robert G. Wagner CFRU Director

2. Maine SBW Task Force Task Force Leaders: University of Maine Bob Wagner, Director, CFRU Director Maine Forest Service Doug Denico, Director Maine Forest Products Council Patrick Strauch, Executive Director

3. Maine SBW Task Force Objectives: Develop Risk assessment Develop Preparation & Response recommendations: State government, forest managers, forest products industry, forest researchers, and wildlife biologists Raise awareness about coming outbreak for media and interested members of public

4. SBW Task Teams

7. >65 Expert Contributors!

8. DRAFT Report Complete

9. Timeline DRAFT reviewed by Task Team members complete Wagner incorporating revisions into a publicly reviewable draft now Public review will begin with Keeping Maine’s Forest group on November 18

10. Risk Assessment Balsam fir concentrations (as depicted on map) by average volume (ft 3 /acre) by county in Maine, 2008. (Source: McCaskill et al. 2011) 5.8 million acres of spruce-fir stands at risk of some level of defoliation, leading to reduced tree growth and mortality over wide areas.

11. Risk Assessment Map of approximately 10 million acres of northern Maine showing areas of forestland classified based on susceptibility to defoliation by SBW. (Source: Legaard et al. 2013)

12. Potential Spruce-fir Yield Reductions Two studies completed: Hennigar et al. 2013 – CFRU Legaard et al. 2013 – NSRC Both studies conclude: 15% to 30% maximum annual reduction in spruce-fir volume or biomass for moderate to severe SBW outbreak Slow (40-year) recovery of spruce-fir following peak impact of outbreak Impact similar (both severity and rate of recovery) regardless of when outbreak occurs over next few decades

13. Good News! Hennigar et al. (2013) concluded that nearly all spruce-fir volume losses can be prevented by: Adaptive harvesting Reducing area of high-risk stands (i.e., those with high balsam fir and white spruce composition) ahead of outbreak Foliage protection B.t. applications to high risk and valuable stands Only 20% of area of affected area needs to be treated Salvage logging Dead and dying trees

14. Projected Cumulative Spruce-fir Volume Reductions Under Various Management Scenarios From Hennigar et al. 2013

15. Projected Maximum Annual Spruce-fir Volume Reduction Under Various Mitigation Scenarios From Hennigar et al. 2013

16. Economic Impact - Projected Maximum Annual Spruce-fir Loss SBW Outbreak Scenario Forest Management Response Scenario Estimated Total Direct Economic Impact to Forest Products Industry Estimated Total Indirect Economic Impact to Maine Estimated TOTAL Economic Impact to Maine Same as 1970s- 80s outbreak on current forest Worst Case – No Management -$505 million-$290 million-$795 million Approximately 50% of 1970s- 80s outbreak on current forest Worst Case – No Management-$252 million-$145 million-$397 million ASSUMPTIONS: No substitutions made for lost spruce-fir volume during outbreak No change in market price of spruce-fir wood with increased supply during outbreak No real price change in spruce-fir stumpage over time

17. Many Factors Different Today Than During 1970s Outbreak Less spruce-fir forest Younger spruce-fir forest TIMO & REIT ownership Better road system Better forest management technology More diverse forest products Higher mill capacity More diverse markets Less dependence on spruce-fir Better logging technology Better protection technology More policy & regulations Lower funding levels in government & industry More sensitive political environment Less entomology expertise Challenges during coming outbreak will be very different than in 1970s-80s

18. Coming outbreak may not be as severe as last one Less spruce-fir forest Younger spruce-fir forest More mixedwood stands due to partial cutting Pattern of alternating moderate and severe outbreaks (1970s was severe) Current outbreak center further north and out of prevailing winds compared to 1970s Reduced dependency on spruce-fir as mill furnish Climate models suggest less favorable conditions in Maine (However, QC outbreak is severe) Strictly speculative at this stage, but interesting indicators

19. Recommendations >70 specific recommendations provided on: Monitoring strategies Forest management strategies Protection options Policy, regulatory & funding issues Wildlife habitat issues Public communications & outreach Research priorities

20. Monitoring Recommendations Engaging public in SBW monitoring Increasing number of pheromone traps in across northern Maine Continuing current light trapping system across northern Maine Conducting targeted aerial surveys (plane-based observers) across northern Maine Conducting egg mass or L-2 larval survey if pheromone trapping and/or defoliation surveys indicate a high probability of population intensification

21. Forest Management Recommendations 6-level stand risk categories based on species composition, productivity, age, value, access, and location Map location, condition, and concentration of high- risk stands Shift harvesting now and in coming years towards merchantable high-risk stands Stop precommercial and commercial thinning in stands where balsam fir and white spruce make up >50% of the composition Prepare action plans to salvage (or pre-salvage) trees that will likely be lost ality Seek and encourage markets for low-value trees

22. Protection Recommendations 12 insecticide products with 4 active ingredients (B.t.k., tebufenozide, and carbaryl) are approved by MBPC for aerial application over naturally regenerated forests to control SBW Assess and map high-risk and high-value stands that they may be candidates for insecticide protection MFS should develop plans for providing technical assistance on SBW management to landowners Landowners with FSC certification and wishing to apply carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, esfenvalerate, lambda- cyhalothrin, and naled) should apply for temporary derogation from FSC Board of Directors

23. Policy, Regulatory & Funding Recommendations Review Spruce Budworm Management Act to determine whether changes are needed given changes in roles and responsibilities of MFS and private landowners Determine personnel, financial, and timing needs for SBW monitoring within MFS and landowners Building and expanding MFS training programs and protocols for a joint state and landowner monitoring program Large landowners anticipating need for insecticide applications should explore cooperative organization for delivering aerial insecticide applications MBPC and MFS should work with insecticide manufacturers to ensure that products are available in sufficient quantities, and all regulatory compliance requirements have been met

24. Wildlife Recommendations Specific recommendations provided for: Mature softwood songbirds Deer wintering areas (DWAs) Riparian zones and coldwater fish habitat Early/mid-successional species of concern (lynx / snowshoe hare / moose) Rare northern butterfly habitat High-elevation habitats and bird species

25. Public Communications & Outreach Recommendations Specific recommendations provided for: Public media Family forest owners Schools Environmental NGOs

26. Research Recommendations Short, medium, and long-term priorities provided for: SBW monitoring Protection Forest management Wildlife habitat management

27. Questions?